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cpHUHeHThl o6UJeii ilnOl0poundlltH1CCTH ( Ipacpa 6) DonY411B B03pacTHblt nOKa3aTeJIII oomen
MellHfI BemllfIf BCTyntmW1fX B
H onllospeMeHlio BbJtllITaHHH H3
TOM IKe Boapacre ( rpacp a 3) a
MNIT HaOmOlleHH1 (rpa (~a 4)
20~1 150
131 44
(rpa rp a 4) laeT K03rpshy
nJlOllOBI-ITOCTH H npl1 shy
UIMa51 3a CTallllapT B03paCTHoii Ii rronoBoi1 eOCT3f HaCeneHH5I KpaH
06JlaCTU pccny6J1HIH 1erKO HClIHcnlITb 1lt03 CllCjHllll1eHTbl o6weii
nJIOllOBIITOCTH H CJlCnOB3TfUlbI0 pOgtKpoundlaeMocTH
B cOBpeMellHbl x leMOI pacpHLleCIltBX I1CCnellOBaHHHX 60JlbWOe 3IIashy
l1eHHe npHll3eTCH H3Y l leIlllIO 6pa IIMOi nJlOllOBHTOC TH KOTOpa1 KaK
H3BeCTHO 60Jlee TOlHO 4eM 06waH xapaKTepl13yeT CPYllKUHIO BOCshy
np0l13BOllCTBa laCeJIeIlH5I HaJlH4He 13 onpocHo~i KapTe IlaT 3aKJIIOshy
leHlI51 II npelpawemISl 6p3la laeT B03MOgtKHOCTb IIC411CJlIlTb nposhy
nOJl)lHTeJlbllOCTb 6palllc)ro nepIlOla - 4JlCJlO ll1OiKllTblX B 6paKe
eT AJISl OTleJlbllbIX B031aCT0I3
DPH HCllFfcnemiH n pmlunblx 6pa l lllblx JleT npIIHHMaeTC1 130 BtI shy
vfamfe pacnpenenelllfe 06CneJlOBaIlIibIX a) no 1303pacTY BCTyoneshy
111151 B 6paK 6) no 130apJCTY npelpaLUNIH1 6pala B) COCT05ltlUlX B
6pale flO M3pacry B MOMerlT 06CJlelloBaHlTa
KaK UHll1I0 113 Ta6JTIlUbl 2 laHHble 0 IHCJIe npO)lHTblX 6pa lllblx
n eT (rpacjJa 5) nonYl atOTc5I nOCpelcTBOM nocnel0BaTeJlbHOrO CJlOshy
6paK B Aa ll Hoot 1l0apaCTe (rpacpa 2) noro 4Hcna npeKpaTHBwHX 6paK 13
TalOKe COcrOHBWHX B 6paKe B W)shy
135
Tallt B rpacpe 5 BC IH LJHlI a )2 ll l-m 20 - l eTIIC lo o03 pac-f a l1 oJlY -l e l1 C1
c n enYIOlllHM o6 p a30M
52=42 + 23-2-11
Til 6nHua 2
H CI HCJleH He npO~OJ1lK HTeJ1bHOCTH 6palHOrO nepKO)la
( 4HCJla npolKKTblX 6pa4 Hbix Jle T)
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654321
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palax MO)KHO BbPfH1CJl HTb C()()1BeT~rByl0lllUe B03pacTIIble K03CPCPHshy
lHellTbI 6p a llllOH TTJlOllOBHTO CTH HccneuosaHHe cMepTHocTH no rrpHMeHellH51 alllaMI-leCTHlJeclwrlt )
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IJTCYTCTBHe 13 1lt0 10 COOTBCTCTBHH CHH3HJlO B 3Ha l l HTeJIbHOii cren ellll
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pa npn npOBellelilHl n p i-InOJl HPllblX I1epenHCe l~i B 20-30-x ronax
CMepTHOCTh MOleT 6blTb onpeueJlelfa 1ocr3TOLtHO TO-IlI0 ne
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B03paCTa 6) cMepTlloCTll B3pOCrIO PO Ha Cene lt flH ( c Tapwe 15 Jle1 )
lI13Ylell He CMep TIIOCTII ( n epe)KHSaeMOCTlI ) neTCKoro II aceJIeu lhl
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B cseJeHIUIX 0 Ka )fnOM tpOlKleHIH COlepLK3rc sr naRHole 0- c yJbue
pe-6eHKa )KHB JIM K M o [ ell i ry oOc1eJIOBaHlIH a eCJll[ YMep f O 13 ltashy
]OM 1303paCTe 310 n03Bomle1 rr p 51Mbl M MeTOIOM n ocTpoHTh T 36JHt shy
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lIaxorUtBWHXCH npH l-Ie~i 13 ceMhe 06W liHO 10 15leT T if 6 I I II 1l 1 3
T a6J1Klla nepelKHllaeMOCTK AeTe (Manb 4HK()B)
o ~3111 10M a031ftCT~
AOlKIIIO tI1paClipCAC shy1I ilU1LIl Ofi~lelUlC 10middot
npooclOBltnpan DCTYlHlMl ycpno JOlftl10 1000 IlCTyshygtfltIlBUUIx IHU Ha shy lla 1000y~ICp10 nOll IIa - nt lDW ~ftl la MOMCIIT 100061fllICIIIIC~1 (~p 1 r 5)6 11040111 11011 IHl -O(jC1CIOshy
6110olCIIHCBGJlIIH
I l l j ~ 6 7 8
() 26 137 724 6~25 211 787 1000 1 4H 60 56 1 5070 l iS 882 787 2 38 -Hi ti3 middotf I 0 () 11 7 88l 69t 3 33 26 167 1375 77 923 613 4 25 ]0 jOS 2rJ l) ) 35 965 566 5 24 8 273 257 0 31 969 548 6 31 Ii 2-l1 2215 36 964 sao 7 1-1shy 5 202 1925 26 074 511 8 19 ~ 183 172 U 17 9amp1 499 9 ~ 1 161 1565 6 994 ~90
() 18 J ]i2 I n 0 28 972 -187 11 15 - 1~(J 1225 - 1000 474 12 14 1 115 1075 9 991 474 13 11 J 100 9-10 11 98~J 47) 14 15 II
-85
1 88 x7
875 II 989 455 -160
CTapUlet c r 0 409 1I f
Tltl6JlllUa CMepTflOCTH (nepegtKHRaeIOcm) AeTeii IO 15 Jler
Ta6J1 3) COCT3SJleHa IT O na ll l l blM o6CJleuoo31lllfl napntlluen CUashyrecTall) I
I )laprIllIUbl COlur3TbHO-fllrtlemlleCKOC ncc1t1l0Salllle lfa p 01lHOCTCil LlareshyC1311a BbilT I 1930 nOl1 pea3KIlHeiI A_ B MOflbKOS3 A r EllI lcjJ3110B3 _ n JIOI10shy8HTOtTb IlilpnffiKTI neTCKan CMepTllOCTu
137
136
Dpu ana MHeCn IIeCKIIX HCCJIenOUCllllUIX nJl51 nOJIyqellHf Ja IHIblC
o nepe)HBaeMOCTIl resp CMepTHOCTH B3pOCJIOro HaCeJIeHH5I npHMeshyl151eTC5I TaK Ha3bll3aeMbl H lleTOn laquo6paTbeB H ceCTepraquo (Geschwisshylermelhode)
06belltTOM Hccnenosa Il H51 51BJl5leTCft B3pOCJlOe I1aCeJleIHle-crapshy
we 15 JleT onpawllBaeMoe 06 HX 6paTb5lx H ceCTpax (naTa pOlKUeshylUI fl B03paCT nonlt HTI151 CMepTlI) Onpoc UOJDKell BeCTlICb T3K tITushy
Ubi H3GegtK3n lBoHtloro Cl(eTa T e onpoca JlHLl SlBn5l1OIlUIXCil
GpaTb5lMj[ H ceCTpaMIf pauce onpOllleHllblx nOJlYLlemlblfl T3KlUl
06pa30~1 M3Tepl1al n03BOJI5)eT lIa OCHOBe n OKa3allai1 np0631AOB Q
ceue II HX 6paTbSlX H cecrpax nOCTpOIITb npSlMhlM MeroAoM Ta6J1Hshy
UbI ClIepTHOCTH (nepegtKHBae~lOCTII) B3pocnoro HaCeJleHHf CTapUle J) JleT
OrpalltlLlellllC ) 5-JleTlilIM B03P1CTOM KaK II HgtJltfHii B03paCTlIOii
I paullueii nepeiKlIlIamm HMeeT n 3AeCb cyweCTBenlloe npaliTIlLieshy
clwe 311ltJ4ellHe OnblT 110llta3bfsaeT LITO aalltrbe 0 B03paCTe nmKIshy
Tiff II CMepTH 6p8TbeB II ceCTep nonYIaeMhle ~ B3POCrlOfO nacencshy
111[51 OTJlllllaIOTC51 CpaBHIITeJlhHOi i TOlHOCTblO HMeHHO AMI B03paCTOR CTapllle J5 ](~T TaK Kal( B3pOC10e lIaCeJIellHe oGb(lTlIO I1lOO OCBCshy
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B3pOCJlOro lIaCeJIenmr JIleHTH4t1bl TaK KaK pa3lUllalOTCgtI OHH ro Ibshy
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TaThI OUCJIel1OBaHHH OlHOrO II loro nlte Kon1eKHIBa ~1O~KH0 oGbC 11Ishy
III1Tb 6 CBO)Ulble Ta6JIIIUhl CMepTIIOCTI1 (nepegtlllBaeMOCTlt) H BbI4IfCshy
JlHTb OCIlOBllble 6110MCTIJIILleCIWe np1i3HaKTi CPClHIOIO npotom([ shy
1eJlbllOCTb gtK1I3Hll K03QJcpllUHenT CMepTHOCTII CTaUHOliaporo HaC~shyre1Jll1H
TIp fl3y4ellflH rtepe)iHBae1OCTH 1eTe~i B oco6ellllOCTH B B03pashy
CTe JJO 5 JleT C I1X OTIJOCI1TeJIbHO 6blCOKHM KOHPCPUUHCHTOM CMepTIlOshyCTH MOgtKHO nOJlb30BaTbCf CpaBIIlITeJlbllO orpaHHlleHHbl M MaTepllashyJOM HanpoTIIB H3y4emle O-lepTHOCTIl B3pocnoro lIaCeJIeHII5I 6JIashy
rO)lapH HH3K01Y B03paCTHo~ly K03IPIPHUHeHTY tlepJTHOC11H rpeGyer 60J1ee 3Ha4HTellbHoro ~1aTepllaJa
IhY4eHHe BocnpOH3BOACTBa HaCeJleHHIS1 ITon)tlCIIIILle Illllilde
o pmKJaeMOCTJ1 resp nnOJlOBWrOCrn CMepTHOCTlI resp nepegtKHBashy
l MOCTH n03BOnHlQT oxapaKTepH30BaTb npoueCChl BoenpoH3BoJJcTBa
Il aCeJIelll1 H B BeCb~[a 6agtKfI blX JlOKa3aTeJIHX
i C~CAyCT ynoMllII)Tb eUtC oei )lItOM pa3J1i1 l llJI OPII unpoce MaTcpeii noJIYshyliIlOTCll Jl3HHbJe 0 Bcex GpaTbflX II ceCTpax OLlI0f rellep3UIIH ue33BIICHMO 01
TOro JlOgtKIIJI JIll KTO-JlHCiO 113 lUX 0 lOMeIlTa O(jCICliOBaUI5[ np onpoce B3pOCshyJIOrO H3CeJj(~H~1l 0 CYllb6e 6paTbCB II ceeTep nOJlytaIOTCl llatlllblC 0 upaTbR II ceCTpax OllHHX 11 -rex )KC reflepaUIliI HeJ3BliCHMQ 01 113Jl11IHSI [l gtKIIBbiX fiX MaTcpeil 110 olil13aTeJ1bHO npeAc-r3BJleHHLIX XOTll 6b1 OllllllM JIOgtKIIBWIiM Ha MOMeHl lla6JllOIlelUHI n p 063I1JIOM TaKIiM oCipasoM 113 lla6JJIOllellHlI BbJll3J13101 rpyn lthl CipaTbeB II cec-rep 1l0rO1C1BIIO SbllepIIHle K MOlellTy OCiCJlellOB 311 Il II
138
J
PeCIb HAeT 00 ~iC4nCleHlm K03QgtIlJHuHeH Ta BocnpoH3soJJCTna Hashy
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pegtKHBa HHtI gtKeHCKO r o HaCeJleHH n c o oTBeTcTsYIOlUHX B0 3pncTHblX
nOKa3aTeJleii nlO)lOBIlTOCTYI YCTaHoBII Tb 411CJIO OgtKHJlaeMbIX pOgtKJleshy
Hflii JlJl51 Bc ero Jlaml Or O nOKOJleHIH H BblBecTI nOKa3aTeJH Bocnpo-
113BOJJCTBa I
XOA COOTBeTCTBYIOUlHX Bbl 4HCJIeHHH n p HBeJJeH B Ta6J1Hue 4 ( n o
naHHhlM 06cJleJJosaHHH MeH3eJlHHCKOro pai10Ha T aTapcKou
ACCP) 2 T a6Hua 4
Bocnpo H3BOACTBO nOKOn e ll iI (AnR n OKOneHH C Ha laJIbHOIi 1 HCne tI HOCT b lO B 1000 lK)
B03pacTllhlc middotpyn n
I
JltQ11IlCCTDO POlKII-TblX leT
I03IjlqllllHIIT 1I 1 OaD-PIITOCTH (npo ~cITI)
lI11cO pOlKJe ll n 8 A3l1ll0A 903paCTllO if
fP YIlIlc rp 2xrp a
4
15shy 19 20-24 25--21 30shy 34shy35-39 40-44 45-49
Bccro
2595 2456 2217 2056 I 934 L80 1 1685
4 1 28 0 320 275 238 12 3 28
106 687 709 565 46 1 222 47
2 797
M 1045 OonoaaSi npOIlOPUIII )K 1UUO
279 l(09cpqlllUlfCIlT BocnpOll3BOllCTB8 R = 2045 = 137
Ha OCHOBe COOTBeTCTBYIOUlHX TaOnJlIl CMepTHOCTIt (nepegtKHBaeshy
MOCTI) COCTaSJlfle-rcSl PHn BblpagtKalOllIllH LfHCJlO KeHIllHH JlOgtKB shy
UlHX JlO KagtKJlOrO B03paCTHOro npOMegtKYTKa (113 Ua4anbHOH tlliCshy
1eHHOCTH 1000 POAIIBWUXCfl gtKeHllllm) lUI tlTO TO Ke l(HCJlO leT
npOgtKHTblX U a HilblM nOKOneHIHH gtKelUlVfl B Jla HHOM B03paCTe
LlallHble 0 nepegtK~IBaeMOCTH MoryT 6bITb B311TbI H3 OOUltrX Ta6shy
JlIIIl CMepTHOCTH HaCCJle ll llfi CTpallbl o6J1 8CT II 1 IIJli H3 TaCimlIl 110 shy~y4eHllblx npH aHaMHeCTHlJeCKOM 06CJleAOBaHHH
B rpallJe 2 Ta6nHUb 4 nOKa3aHO iO1H l leCTBO np0gtKFlTbIX JleT
irrJlSI nOKOJleHHfI reIHUIf Il C Ha4aJlbHOH l(HCJIeHHOCTblO BlOOD llen n shy
YK33aJlllbli[ MCTOJI nOJlytlClillfl 110K333Tenerr BocnpOH3BOJlCTBa IlII1POtO npt middot ollileu Il 20--30-x rOllax WllleCTHb11 r cpMallCKIIl JIeMorpacf1oM KYIII11CKlll
OGOUUUIDIllHM 3I1alHTCJlbllblll MaTepll3n no CTpaHaM MHpa C Ilb(tlllCJeIllICM rpy60ru IipYTTO) H 1I1CTOrn (HeTTO) nOI333TeJIl BOCnpOHIIlOACTBa
3TOT MeTOJI 6bll npICnell MIfOIO OlIlOllpeMeHIiO C KYIIlHCKIiM H I J e~ aTlHCHshyMO OT lIero K3K II KYIlIHCI(IIH SI IICXOnHJr 11 3 OCHOBHblX nOJIO)lelllifl pasp a6o shyTaHllblX BeKOM
2 lt1gt r My x a Mel blip 0 B K Bonpocy 06 113YleBHI BOCI1POH3BOJlCTfla lIoKOneHHil Ka3a ncKllii Men )Ipllan ~ 6 J93 1
3 I1MelOTcSI B BHJlY TaOJlIlUbI CMCp TIi OCTH COCTillgt1lCMbIC OprilHaIH o cP unHshy2JlbHOli CTaTIICTIIKJI na OCHOe3111111 llanRblX nepenHceif u yler3 tlBHIKCnllll Hacc 1ell Ifll
139
Eellt) COOTBeTCTBermo nOp5lLII(a nmKHTlHI no TaUJlIlUaM CMepTHOCTH CJCTaBJleHHbllll no nalIllbl~1 npOH3BenellHoro HCCl1eaOBa HlI51
K03centcentrUIHenTbf 06lleH rrJlOJQBUTOCTII (rpacpa 3) nO1y4eHul hpJ
TO~I )Je rrCCJlenOB~lI1HJl
DpOU3BeneHIl5T laHHblX rpacjgt 2 II 3 nalOT no llt3gtKJ1oii B03paCTshyHoii rpynne BeJIIl4HHY o)JlfJaelblX pOgtKleHII~i (rpacjgta 4) H fiX CYMshyMa 2797 Bblpa)faeT o)JIHtaeurolOC KOMI4CCTBO po)aefllrir OT Bcero noshylOJlCIH1~ )eIlWHT T c fIllCleHHOCTb reHepaUHlT BocnpoH3scnCHshy
hOll HaLJaJlbHhI~1 nOKOI(lle~1 lellllITlmiddot rrpli taIlHOM nOp5lnKe nepeshy
gtKIIBaHlIH
COOTI-lOllIellllC ~JIlCla POJlIIAUlllXCH MalhlJHKOB H oCBOlfeK no naHshy[(b1~1 aBTopa COCTaBJlHlO 1045 1000 OTCIOna lI3LJaJlbliaH lIllCJleIl shy
HOCTb Bcera nOKOJlCHIIH npHH51T~1 B 2045
CTleJoBaTeTbHo 1lt03cprp1UnellT BonpotI3floncTBa OPYTTO paBeH
2717 _Rb = ~o15= l 3r
I03rpcjgtlfuneliT BocnpoH3BoacTsa lIeno
_ 2lt)7 _) IRII - IOOU - _R
2 MeTO)l 1t30XPOH 2
Dpl-I rrpOBCJIeIlJlI aHallleerH4eCKlIX IICClenOB3mni JlCMorpacentnshyleCKne lTpOUeCCbl MoryT 6JITb 13Ytellb perpOCnelltTIlBHO no OTshyJefbHbIM HHTepeCYIOllII~1 HccnenOB3Te1H XpOHO10rtflJeCI(lJM n(-p~loshy
aai TaK B03MO)JHO cpaBIIHTeJlbHOe H3y~el--me pOJKIae10CTH
cepTHOCTIi npoueCC05 Bocnp01l3BonCTS3 rrace1ellllH 3a neplIOJlh1 10peSOJ1l0UHOIHLlir (ao 19 18 r ) H nOCJlEpeBOJIlOUHOHHblii 3a uoshyBoeHHblii (1918-19middot10) II 1l0CJleBOeffliJlj H 3a 6oec lleTa~bHble XpoHO10rlf1-leCIltlC nepollhl (lla nplnlep 5- 1O-1eTH lie II T n) 3TO ooecne4HBaeTC51 npmleleHlIEM MeTona 1I30XPOf OCHOBalIIIOlO na pacnpeleJleHlI1 cooTBer crByrOllI1X naHHblX B TaK Ha3hTSaelblX Ta6shy
J1Tuax Tpex 1I3MepeliHii
I 06wenpIIHflTIJC B I ac rOllwee apeln GpyTTO 11 flerro - 1OjJrVIIllIfCHTbI BocnrOIf3BOnCTB3 IICIIIIC111101Cfl IICCKOJlbKO THialle II o603I1a IIBTOT I) 6pYTTOshyKOltjJijllTUlICIiT (B3lOIlOii rpy6blii nOKa3aTC~b) BOCrrpOll31l01lCTila - 4IC10 lC60shyIltK POC1ClillbIX Il qClIlC~1 OJ1I1Oli (llllllIfIiOli 3a uel nJlO)l06HTblil nepHOD cc WiIlH II 2) neTTo-Ko3cjJltjlHlHleHT (OtIllWlHHblf DOK33aTCb aOCllpOIl31l0ilCTB3 mlla3)Tlt1[ IIIICToro t ocnpo1l3BocTlla) - TO iKe COOTH OWeHlli MBTtpeii Ii l104Cshypdi L10 C YTO~I j1a3~H pOI3 c~lepTH(ICTII gtKClIIlIIIH B B03pacTc 10 50 JleT (Kolla 11J10JlODIiTOro lleplIOJla KIL3HI ilCllllllIllW) OrpaKellHWX B TaOJIIIllaX CMCPTtIOCTI )h(IICKOro 113tCJICllliR J(TOHIKY BWIflC tellust 3TlIX 1I0Ka1aTeeii eM I) A 51 [j 0 $I pc K II ii Kypc1e~lOrpal~IIleCloli e1-aTIiCTIIhIImiddot M 1945 eTp 84- 90 2) A 5I [) 0 SI P ( I II II II n n III Y III e p 11 It laquolJeMorpacjJllqc(laR CTaTHCTllIlt8 M 1955 erp 290---3UO A M_ J e p Ilt 0 11 laquoJlc~OrJlacjJlIllecKaR CTaTIICTIIKaraquo 1950 eTp l ui [G6 _ Ped
2 l M TllOI( CTp 22 c(i(lPHIIK1
1middot0
Ta6J11lua 5 nOKa3blBal0llafl pacnpelleJlCHlle pO)lJleIlIIH flO B03shypacTY )eHllHR B MOMellT o6CJleIoBamHI (nowegtKalllCe) il no IIX
B03paCTY B MOfeIlT P021nellllH peGeHllta (cKa3yeMoe) 11aeT B03shyMOiKHOCTb pacnpeneJlNIIHI ITO COOTBeTCTBYIOUlIIM oloIarOHaJlflM Tex Ie C06h1TIIH no XpOIIOJlOrHlJeC[lIM llaTa~1 To iKe B CJ1Y4ae pacnpcshy
nCJ1elilHl yMepwHx no taTe POgtIlt)JCHlm II B03paCTY CMepTIl H T )I
3m n~larOllaJlH HOCHT na3BaHHC 1130XpOI (JIeKcHc-KHanrr) T c J111 lTJlIl COelIlIl5IOWIIX TOllKII c06bITmi OJlIl1aKOBOro BpeMeHloI MOgtKshy110 rOBopllTb He TOJlblW 06 H30XpOlax MIHH~X HO II 06 H30XpOH
HbX nJlOwanHX (lf30XpOHHbIX nOJllHOHax) orpalllllleHHbIx oBYfH H30xpoHa MI1 nooctteTbI no 1oI30xpoHaM no l30XpOllllblllt nOllHroshy
113M naIOT pacnpenerrCIIle OCHOBHoil cOBoKynIlOCTl (pOgtKJ1eHni-i CMcpTeii II T a) no COOTBeTCTBYIOWHM XpOIlOJlOrH4eCI-IM neposhy
ua1 COBoKyrrHocTu npoiKlfTblX leT nMI Bceil 06cleJOBaIlHo~1 rpynshylTbl B Ka)IO-1 B03paCHIOM npOMCiltyTKC B aaIlIlOM XpOIIOJlOnPl eCshyKO neplfO]e nOJlYlfalOTCSl nYTeM COOTBeTCTBYIOlleii iOJlcplI~aUllll 06urlHhlX MeTOnos HalJeTHbI( p~UIOB
nOpHJIOK BblpoundHCJ1eIlHH COBOIYlTIIOCTI npOgtKHThiX nou Ha6molleshy
lIIeM JleT AJU Bceii r p ynnbT o6cneoOBaHHbrX 3a BCCb nepffOn HX
iKII3HH B B03paCTe CTaprue 15 neT npl1Se]JeH BblllIe (Ta6Jl 1 CTp 135)
ECJlH Fle06xoalTMO yqeCTb eme TOT JIll IiHoii POIIOJIOrHlleCKuii
nepon TO YCTaHasmlBaeTCH S03paCTHoe paCnpelleJiCHHe )l(el-llllHH Ha lIa~laJIO II KOlieu 3T01O neplJOlla ~ITO oOCTlraeTC5I COOTseTCTB)shy
IOlleH peoYKUHeii E03paCTTIOro pacnpe(CJleIHHr HanpltMep -lT06rx nOJ1~mTb 113 MaTeplfaJ10B 06CJ1t~aoBaHH5I 1956 r B03pacTHoe pacshynpeneJleHHe 118fHIoro KOIJlelTlfsa B 1940 r cJlenye-r nCpeJlBrfllyTb p~o n o B03pacTHolI lUl( aJ1C Ha 1U leT_ Korll tleCTBo rrpO)llThlX JleT
Jt-IH KalKnoro B03pacTHoro npoMCgtKYTtlta nOJlY4aeTcSl nYTeM nocJleshyAOBaTeJlbHoro cyMMHposaHHH 11aHllbiX 0 BCTynHslUHx B uaHHo~1 B(3pacTe B TOT ItJHI IHIOi XpOIlOJllrlllJeCKHii TIepnon II nmJ1elOBashyleJlblIOro BhPHlTaHH5I AaUI-lbIX 0 BblCTynHsllHIX H3 3Toro )Kf XPOllO
nOrHlJeCKOrO nepKona B oaHHOM B03paCTe DOSlCllInt TeXHUKY BblllHCJlCllliH CJ1CoYIOlllIHI npllMepOM B Ta6J1HUC 5a npI1Be~teHbI HClIICIeIITH J(JlIrrelbI-lOCTH nepHOlOa
Ha6mOlleHII51 no S03paCTHblM rpynna~1 J1l5T COBJKYnIIOCfH o6cJleshynosamlblX B 1956 r )JClIl1lHH (2802 4elOAela) no If(lCTHhl1 nepllo
131 no 1941 r 1941 - 19middot15 rr bull 1946-1956 rr BblLJI-ICIleHHH nposhy113BcaeHhl C1CaYIOUIIfM o6pa30M B rparpax 2 4 It G nallo pacrrpEue shyJIC~II1P Bcell COBOKvnHOCTIi o6c~eJlOBaHllblx iKelfllnH no BOJpacl v na HallaTlO lltaiKuoro llaCrHOrO nerHlOJ1a COOTBeTcTBYOIllIle lltela
W)JlY1leHbl nYTCM peoyKIlllH B03paCTlIOrO pacnpe1eJleHlISl Ha MO ]lellT OOcleJlOB3IlHH (rroqa 6) Tal lU1f1 B03pacTlloro pacnpe-leshy
1eIHI5T Ad 1941 r (rpacpa 2) penYlltlrr51 npOH3SE1eHa H3 15 ller
lHl paClipcnCJ1elIliSl Ha 1946 r (rparplt1 4) - 1C1 10 leT B rpacpax 3 5 H 7 nplIBeneHbl aerIHllHlllJ npOiKHTWX neT no OTshy
aeJllgtlIb11 B03paCTHblM npOMeKYTKaM no KaKLlOIY tlaCT~oMy neshy
pilon) BW411cleHIHI 3TIIX BCJlHllfH npOlI3seueHbl cIeAYIOllHlI oGshypa30TII
141
----
Ta6nllL35
PacnmiddotpellenCHHe pOlKJeHHH no BoapacTy amplaTep B MOMeHT POllOB
(o6c~eJoDaIlHe 1955 r )
B()j (laCT gtta lmiddotcpgt1 B MOM ellT pltJI101
B03p3CT ~nTcpll I o ~o ellT 06celloo31I11A
18 I 19 I 20 I 21 I 22 23 I 24 I 8 T JI
I 18 1955 19 1I 20 -2-1 shy21 1 3 1 shy22 I 1 1
4 -6-23 2 3 1 1 2 -2-~24 3
1 225 2 2 5 7
26 1 I 2 4 5 27 2 3 1 2 l 2
2R 1945 1 2 4 3 2 4 3
29 lt 3 2 I 2 41+130 L 5 1 3 1
- 7- 331 4 2 3 4 -2-132 2 3 5 2 5
6 -31 433 3 4 6 -3-34 2 3 5 5 4
35 3 4 7 3 4 7 36 2 3 6 l ) 5 37 2 j I 4 7 a If
33 1935 3 4 2 8 5 4
39 5 4 3 4 4 7I 6 3 8 (jJO -1- 5
--3shy41 2 2 1 5 7 3 3 42 4 6 - 3- 5 4 3
3 -2-143 2 1 4 3 11
44 3 2 () 4middot 6 - 2- 5 - 8shy45 3 l 7 4 4
46 5 4 3 3 5 6
47 5 5 1 3 4 48 2 7 2 5 ~ l
49 J 6 R C 5 l (j50 II CTapwe fi 4 8 9 7 9
Bcero pOlKneHHii 37 77 118 lIt 111 104 IIIl
B TOM IBcne no uepliOnaM
1945-1954 rr 7 18 23 21 26 32 34 1935--194+ rr 12 32 4J 46 47 42 50
110 1935 r 18 2fi 52 44 37 29 32
142
llJJ5I laCToro neplloll3 AO 1941 r (lpacpa 3) IHCJlO HaGmolleH HblX (np0gtKHTblX) JleT H s03pacTe 15 JleT 04eSHllHO paBHO tlllCJlY Bcex 2802 o6cJlellOSaHHblx )KeHtUMH 3a BbIeTOM 12middot~6 IKelJtUI-Hl He llOCnrrWHX K IWHlIY 3Toro lJaCTllOrO nepH01Ia 15 JleT T e 1556
BeJllFIIIHbl llMI B03pacroB 16 17 18 H T Jl nOJlY4eHbI nYTeM rrOCJleJlOBaTeJlbHOrO Bbl4HTaHHSI raquoltElltUHH HaXOllHBlllHXCSI K KOHUY nepHOJla B npeJlblJlYlUeH B03pacTHo~i rpynne (TaK )lJHI 16 JleT
1406 = 1556-150 DJHI 17 J1er 1359 = 1406-47 H T Jl) )lrUI 43CTIOro IlcpHoDa 1941-l945 fT (rpacenta 5) LIlII~10 HCl6
JlIOJleUllbIX (np0gtKWrbrx) JleT B B03pacTe 15 fleT OleSHJllO paBHo qHCJlY gtKeHlliHH sCTynJlBwHx B 3TOT nepHOa IO J]OCTIIgtKeIHlH ]5 neT (l2-l6) 3a BbllleTOM emIHIH He Il0CHlrWHX 3Toro B03paCTa JlO 1946 r (75 J ) MCKOMoe 1HCJ10 paBHO pa3fIOCTIl nllX lIHCeJl T e
1246-751 = 495 T 6 J1 11 L a 5a
HCIHCJlelllle npOJl(HTblX noll tlaonIOJleHlleM 1eT Anll Reeti rpynobl lIIeHutHH no neptO)laM
ItUI10 nposhyIt1J1hlyen 1I 0U
1Ifno lUCO lI uOICA shyIu( lUPfnpClICshy IUlllpCt shyPocnPClC middot npo~nn npOlKTbIX tHle Jle1JlIUUC IlOJlltaUlIOmiddot 11UHc1 CIUlCn[JoaIIThl~ 1I0JllliI61t10 Uil eeL)fCUHUIII
)KCUUUIll nolellHCMOJ 113611lt- ~ltellll(11I1D03p~C1 ACHlH leT nCpH OJl AO ACIlIlt4 neT no oOIn~T) 1t l 33
no BOIshy lIotflurTY Jtl 19~6 IOMCIITU JlO I ~middotI I r
rlOt middot middotY 1t3 lit 1J51i r1J11110 lhu r 1955 rr oIiCl1cIIlt)shy1911 r (Itw rr OnltlUI (1J5I r)
I 7 86~ 3 41
751 751
) 2-16 -no 15 31 2A02) 16 495155615 150 aq 27719164middot1998)6 140047
976 2733 18
75135y 1M aVti17 72 1Jd l79 ~65839241) f512S7
Y4671 25-1038 353) 211HI 42 135 II T ~ 1 T a
21 150 II T lI20 II T n
~3middot17I 7n72 84
22 46
24 23
80-42 )96tl T 1125 98
27 21)
7R 85
29 28
38 30 150 31 47 32 72 33 46 34 42
11 T bull u II T Jl t t
Bcero Q
BemfllHHbl llJlH B03paC10B 16 17 18 1I T lI nOJIytleHbl CJleJlYshyIOlUliM 06pa30M npH6aRJleHbl 1Ilcna )f(eflLLIH1J HaXOllHBWHXC5I K HaLIaJlY nepnoJJa B npeAblllytUej B03paCTHoii npynne (rpacpa 2) 11
143
- -- ---
PaCnpelleJlelllle raquolteI-lllJHII no B03pacry B lOlgtleUT 06C~leLlOBai1l1H II B03paCTY BCT)nJ1eHH5I B 6paK I1Jlli npeKparneHHH 6paKa KdK yKashy3aHO Bhlwe LlaeT B03MOiKHOCTb pacnp el1e1HTb HX no xpOHOnOrHleshyClmM nepHonaM (LlHarOHaJ1blIbiM JTHHHflM I130Xp0l(nl) llJUr KaiK shy
loro B03paCTa nOrOlHO nOJlcqHThlBaeTen lHCJlO COCTOHBilHiX Ii 6pashyKe K KOIIUY nepHOLla (FlnlI ITO TO Me n epeWeJlWHX B COCTOHHHe 6paKa B cleJlYIOLUHii nepHOJl) TaK ~IHCJlO 23-JleTHHX COCTOHBillllX K 6paKe B 1945 r bull nOJTYllaeTC5J no ropH30HfaJlH B03paCTa 33 r Ol la ( Ha MOMeHT 06CJleIlOBaHHfI) rrYTeM CyMIgtIYI[l oaaHIUI BCryf1RBWRX B 6paK no 1945 r H BbllIITaHHH CJIYllaes np eIltpaLUCHH5I 6paKa
18 = 2+ 4 I 5 5 middotH~- 1
LfHCJ1a npoMHTblX leT B OpatJHOM COCTOHHIlI1 nJlSl OT)lenbHbI X
XpOH0J10rH4eCKHx nepHOJlOB (CM Ta6n 6a) orrpeJlenHIOTC5I cneJly shyIO[UHM 06pa30M rroroaI1O I1MI Karaquoltnoro B03pacTa nOCJlenOBaTeJ1bshy110 CYMMIlPYIOTC5I nepeweLltIllle B COCT05HlIe 6pallta T13 npeiJbICyweshyro nepHOla ( r pacpa 2) H BCTymwwHe B GpaK B llaHHOM B03pacTe If
B naHHOM nepnOl1e (rpacpa 3) Ii nOCJ1eJlOBaTeJlbIlO BblllHTalOTCH Dce npeKpanlBWlle 6paK (rpacpa 4) H nepeXOJl5IllJHe B COCTOfllHIC 6paKa B cJ1enYIOwuH n epHOlt (rpacpa 5) Tallt 4liCIJO np0gtKHTbIX OpalHblX JleT B B03pacre 19 J1eT I1J1H liIepHona 1945-1954 rr paBlfo
84= 38+2+ 48- 1- 3
JlSI 22 TIeT
160 = 154 + 6+18- 3-15 H T i
T a 6 Jl II [I a 6a
HCIIICJleIlHe 6paIHoro nepHOJla (lHCna npOlKHTblX neT) J1nJl xpOHOnOrlfeCKOrO nepHOJla
QI(10 iKe lllIllIH 1I lIen n n PO)lt)11LfHeno +C IIlL( HlI lJucno 011 11 11111TO c H t B 6PU 4 110 M BCTynHulIlI II li1l 1H
Aalllloro BlnpaCT(I Jl3 UH OI O UO IpH CTa B n~plloJll COllOSl HlIII 8 LaJt~ p CKpJ shytOCTOSlUIllH 8 C()CTCl 5I BllJItX 9BIIJ p nCT (IWi 1111 r ) T il BllHt X 110 B03P KTC
(ipnKc lin 11118110 liPKC K KOIII Iu n tJIIIIUU 6pnllt H ncpllo middot ne po)1 (1945 r ) lIe l a (K l middot i~ 1 ) (1~IS- 1 9fimiddot1 r r)BO p UCl C
-Ii I 51 2 middot1
_18 -38 - 3 19 12 ~tl 3 84
() 20 1)11 1J9 f)21 2 15425 6
22 18 3 156 160 23 6 17IS 16 161 2middot1 l 2012 10 139
U T jI
1-[
BbiGTeHbl HaXOlI1BWneCn B Toil Ie B03paCTIlOH rpynlle Ha KOHel( 11epHOJla (rpacenta 4)
TaK 449 = 495+ 150- 196 398 = 449 + 47- 98 11 T JI
llJU qaCTHOro nepJoIona 1946-1955 rr (rpacpa 7) BeJllollfHHbl QJTH B03pacToB 16 17 18 If T 11 1l0JT)IeHbl anaJlOrHlIHO naUHblM ilJH nepnola 194 L- [945 rr
TaK 916=751 + 196- 31 976 = 916+98- 38 R T 11 Cnoc06 nOJl)Ie lfH5I Ilall ll bl X )lJl51 Bcero nepHona B ueJlOM (lpashy
ltJa 8) IlOfICneH Bhlwe npHBeLleM erne OllHlI npllMcp fI pllMeHeHIIH MeTOl1a H30XpOll I1JHl
Bb[~IHCJleHHH no n epHOl1aM IIPOlHTbIX 6pa rlIfblx JTeT PaClteT nposhyH3BOLlHTCH no AallRblJI1 pacnpel1eJTeHH5 IeHlLUB no B03paCTY B MOshyMeHT o6CJTelOBaHHH (1956 r) H no B03pacTY scrynrleHHH B 6paK 1-1 ero npel(parneHHH (Ta61J 6)
T a 6 Jl II II a 6
PacnpeAeneHHe 06cneJ(onaHI1b1x no B03pacTY nCTynneHHII H OpeKpalleJlHSI 6paxa
B(J3pa CT B MOICIiT oc rynnclIHR A (ipallt MII npC Kp3utCIIIIR Opa lw
Bf) 3K3CT 91()1 CllT I ltI r~CA()fJIJIfIiSl II I I I I IIS 19 ~n n 22 21 2middot1 II T JI
18 1955 19 J I shy-ashy20 1 t
VI
21 J 2 I 2 22 6 -4 1 5 TIl I 23 5 5 4 3 -=-1
324 6 7 2 2 1 21 I---= 25 4 4 5 32 )
26 5 7 7 j 2 2 2 17 4 ti 7 G 2 32 28 1945 2 j 2 1 29 1 ) 5 1 2(2 30 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 12 31 21 --~ I I 1 2 1 2
- 1-132 2 3 2 1 12 33 2 -1 5 5 1 ---3-1_1 34 3 4 -tl I 2 11) 1_1_
It T 11
fj 194r)-I)) ( 11
tl CTYIIIIIO B 6paK 38 IS middot19 21 J8 Hi ll
flPCK P iITIf 1(l 6pt K 2 1 Ii
1 Iml u ihTYI11UJlUIi X H 0lllli ylhOl~oI h IIHmiddotHrrc1c IUUI ilptM11IHIIIII UnC1C
J~J
C OC TORBWHC II 6pIIc
110 linI1915 r
2 5 6 G
18 12
[( T I
19Sr
3 6 6
15 17 20 16 29 21 I 15 1 1 11 8
19 13
f[ 1 L
rlpi - B atltmiddot
4 HccneAoBaHHe CBH3K AeMorpa$HQeCKHX npo~eccoB C APyrHMH SlBneHHSlMH
nepeA HccneuOBaTene 1acTO BCTae-r 3alla4a xapaKTepnCTHKI
JlerwrpaqI14eCKHX npoueccoB B CBgtl3H C HEKOTOPbIMH BagtKltblMrt
C06blTl51lH Il nepeMefa ~111 B )IH13HU lltonJleKTlIBa II OTJlCJlbHOrO J1 Hshy
Ila TaKoBo nanpurep H3YleHlle pO)KIlaeMOCTII JeTclltoii olepTshyHOCHI B CBH311 C pU3RIltIJl5IMlI B TpYlle MaTep (npoMblwfleHluuk
HRII HenpOMbIWleIIUblii) 1ltIrJ11 LLHeM Hml (fCYTCTBHeM 3amIT tiK KYshy
CTapllblM npO~lbICJlOr B KpeCTb5lHCKlIX CelMIX ncpeCeJlCHl-leM B HO
Bble )KIIJ1I1Ula H l iTO B CBoe BpeM5I 6b1rlO oco6emIO BaXltHO nCTynshyleHIleM B KO1JleKTIIBIOe X035l1IcTBO C aKKilHMaTII3aUlleii npB nepeshy
ceneHlIfI B ApKTHKY B BblCOlltoropHble paiiollbi II T bull t OGblllllO B
11 IIX c~yqaSIX InYlfellue BpoundleTCSI nYTeM conOCTaB1elllHI JtBYX KOJIshy
leKTrIBOB 06J1analOI1lIlX (( lie 061aaaIOlllIH laIlFlWM npR3H8KOM ()aHaKO npaKTlltIeCllI lIeB0310gtKHO nOlblCKaTb Ko1rJeKTIIBbl lOCT8shy
TOlIfO OJlIIOpOQHhle BO nce~1 OCTaJlbIlOM II 3TO eCTeCTBellllO 3aTshy
PY)lHfleT 3allltlllY IIcCnClOBClHIf51 If HepellKO uCJlaeT ee lIepa3pCllIIIshy
oIoii Tallt HanplfMep npB conOCTaBJleHllH llByX KOJlJ1eKTIISOBshy
gtKlmylllllx B 1I0BbiX lolax H )OiBYUlIiX B CTapLIX llOM8X - nml IICshy
crlenOBaHIIH BJ1IWHII51 iKlUlIllllHblX YCJlOBlIii lla pmK)laeMOCTb UJIH
lleTCKYIO CMepmOCTb lJpe3Bbl l JaiiHO TpYliHO rrCK~IOIlITb BIJII5IHIH~ f03paCTllblX CounaJlbHomiddot6blTOBblX 11 llpyrHx pa3111LJII~i MegtKlY Te-I npli allaMHeCTlI4eClltO1 ~leTOlle B03~IOgtKHOCTb o6pa30BalllHl 13 aaHshy
1I0ii reHepaJlbHOii COBQKynHocTII LIZCTHbiX COBOIltYIlHOCTeir no llaHshy
11O1Y npOll3BonbHO BbI6pallliOY npl13HaKY (HanpllMep nepeceneshy
lTle B HOBbie )lOMa) o6eurocneLJ HBaeT llOCTaTOlJHYIO oanopoaI-lOCTb
)TIIX LJaCTllbiX COBOIltynHocTeti B OCTaJlbHblX OHlOwellllfiX H nprrJ18er
nonylJ8(~lbTM p(3)~bTaTa1 HeoUxoaHMYIO T04HOCTb 3aCCb BCCJleshy
nOBalnle BelleTca KaK UbI B yC~OBHI1X LtHCTOrO 3KCneplllleHTltI Tn 0 VCJlOBIHII OllblTa BIlt1101laCTC51 JlIIOO HCIltJlI0lJaeTCSl lleiicTBHe Toro
lInll- HHoro qaIltTOp1
Ana 1 HeCTllteC1Wli ICTO OTIltPblrJ B03MOgtKHOCTb 13Y4ellHH 3TIlX
BlefIHii B )KelJaeIO~( HarrpaB1eHIII1 6e3 npoBeAelllSI CJlOKllbIX
fWHTpOl bH blX llCCJIIlOsaH JJ if np((MCHSlSI VleT0Jl 1I811eTHbiX PSlAOB MO)f(lIO p83JeJlHTb Hccneshy
tyellYlo COBolltynllocTb Ila tfaCTIfW~ c OBoKyrrHOCTlJ oGnaJlalOlllHe aIlHbl~l npu3HarmiddotarIH C YIeTOM B03pacT8 H XpmfOJlOrHtjtcKoro
nepllola a Ta6111lf lIoe pacrr pelleJHHlTe nOMoraeT YCTa HOBIlTb lJHCshy
JleHIlOCTb HCClelyeMolx 5IBJleHllii (p0gtKJJellHi-i cMcpTeii 11 T a)
cooTBeTcTBYIOUlI1X Te IJlI HllbiM lIaCTUblM cOBollt)middotnIlOCT5IM TaK
Ha 1aTepHaJle OlHorO 1I Toro IKe 06CJlellOBarUfH 6bllll 13Y4ellb( )a3
lIf4HSl B n10aOBHTOCTlI 10 nepeCeJleHI15I B HOBbIe llOCeJIKIl 11 nocJte rrepecenemw no naLJaJla pa60Tbi B aalfllOr npocpCCCllll II B nepHOl
pa60Tbl B neil
nlH YCI30eHlI1 MeTOlIl4eCKHX npennocblJlOK nOAo6HblX HC4HCJI(gtshy
II If i 1l01e3I10 BOCnOJlb30BaTbCSl rpaqH4ecKI1~1H KOllCTPYKUIHIMI1 lleshy
~Orpacpl14eCKHX npoueccoB B BITae J1HHHii OTpagtKalOllIHx Te4eHHe
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I n e K C U c CT3Tbn lTo TeopHH CT3TIICTltKIt lIaCeJIellllSl l TeopnIl npaBCTshyBCllltOI CT3THCHIKII 1 fp3qJlIlecKII~1 MeTOA HCCJleAOB3UHSl CMepT1l0Cni II noshyIHlllOK BblmlpaHIISl B nepeaOAeuro nOA peA Ll y rrpOBa Cn6 1906
2 13 a T K II C r A Ol[epKII 110 CTaTHCTIIIeCKOIi MeToaOJtOrllll I K Bonpocy MeTOLlOJlOrtlll IICH1c~eRIHI Cpe)lHerO B03pac-ra 11 MeTOLl H30Xpml Ill H3YleHue 11 10110[lIlTOCTII IV y13Y l lelHle CMCPTHOCTII V feOMeTplll[eCl(He r pacjJuKIl naceshyJI(IIUS VI AnaMHCCTIIIeC)HH leTO B AeMorpaClIlH laquoCOUB3J1bH3n rHrllella~ N 19 1928 ~2 2-3 12-13 N94 (14) 1928
3 13 a T Ilt II C r A K MeTonOJlOnlH 1t3YIJC8Hff BJHHIIIHl lIpocjJCCCl1l 113 nposhyIf~ BonHTe1bHylO cjJYHKlJUlO )KemllIIHbl laquofmUeHa 6C3onaCHoCTb It naTOnOrHH rpyn3 N2 2 M 1930
4 13 0 1I p C K 11 if A 51 It ill Ywe p H B n n Lle~lOrpacjJlJIleCKall CT3T11shyCTHKa M 1955
5 B bt C T P 0 B a B A LlocToeepHoCTb AamrblX nOJlylae~tblx alla~HleCTil-4(CKllM MeTonOM ABTopccjJepaT J1llccepTaUHH M 1954
6 Be H II 6 e p r B MeronIlKa H TeIIIlKa CT3TliCTHKU B nplIJlogtKellllH couliallbllOi 6lonortll1 nepeBoll nOll pCLl A B MOJIhKOB3 M 1928
7 My x 3 M C1 L Sl pO B ltIgt f K Bonpocy 06 113Y l lCIIlIIl BOCnpOl-l3BO1CtBa IIOKOMIlHJI K33alfcK~rit Mell iKypH3n 11 6 1931
8 My x a M e Jl blip 0 B (Igt r K Bonpocy 06 1I3YIJClIliH nepCgtF111J3eMOCTif B3poclloro TaTapCKoro 113CCJlelillfl Ka3 ~ICl livpH3n Ka3aH 1930
9 My x a 1 ell blip 0 B ltI) r OnblT 1l3Yle1l1lSl nJlOJlOllHTOlTIi gtKCtlWHIlbtshyTaTapKH 1I nepe)KUBaeMOCTll ee peOCHI3 K33 Men )KypHal Ka3a1lEo 1930
10 n a C B C K If ii B B II 51 x 0 H T O B A n a npliMelleHlfli aHaMlICCTlllemiddot CKoro MtTOla B 1eMOrp3cjJIlIl laquoT pYllLJ LleorpacjJllleCKOro l1UCflITYTa AKaae1I111 HayK CCCPraquo T I 1933
I I c 11 II K e B H LJ r n I fclICJleHlle cpeililcro B03paCT1J IIClcrynneHliH 1l[l1l3shyHllKa 110 Kllel11ltllllblM llerllOJl1M rnrn lna 11 3nl11C~1ItworH5Iraquo 1Ii III 1927
152
12 C II H Ii e B 11 q r n BOJloroncKaSl KpCcTb5lHKa u ee peIJelloK M 1929 13 Til MME C OmgtT 13YleIlHSI eCteCTBeliBOro llB10KeBIUI uacelleHIHI B
KI IUI 1 3Ka x T awKellT 1933 14 T If M I E C OnbtT c31l1ITapBo-cT3TlICTIIQCCKOrO UCClcuon3Hllll DnollO-
IITOCTIl TawlCclTT 1936 15 c 0 n T bI C C K I Ii E 11 K nonpocy 0 rtpl1Meliellll1t aHaMHeCTllltteCKoro
~I oaa [l c3I1HTapHo-cTaTlICTIlleCKHX HCCJlenOBalllHIX cr~lIueL1a II caHHTapHlI~ N 3 1949
16 C T P Y M H IT H II C r np06J1eMloi 3KOHOMIIKII TpyJJa [JI V n p06J1(Ma
pll K1l3eMOCTlI B pa60Qerf ceMbe M 1957 17 ill 0 pO ( 0 BaA A MCToLlHKa 1I3)1eHHSI nJlO)JOBlITOCTll qenOBeKa_
T alllKeHT 1935 18 A n s c I L An lhe rate of morlality of early period of life and t he other
~l~li s li cs of families L 1879 19 K nap p L D ie sterblichkeit in Sachsen leipzig 1869 20 K u C z i ns k y R The balance of barlhs an d deaths N J 1928 21 Wei 0 b erg W Die Kinder cler Tuberkulosen LeIpzig 1913
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o ~3111 10M a031ftCT~
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137
136
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ceue II HX 6paTbSlX H cecrpax nOCTpOIITb npSlMhlM MeroAoM Ta6J1Hshy
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o pmKJaeMOCTJ1 resp nnOJlOBWrOCrn CMepTHOCTlI resp nepegtKHBashy
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138
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139
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hOll HaLJaJlbHhI~1 nOKOI(lle~1 lellllITlmiddot rrpli taIlHOM nOp5lnKe nepeshy
gtKIIBaHlIH
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2717 _Rb = ~o15= l 3r
I03rpcjgtlfuneliT BocnpoH3BoacTsa lIeno
_ 2lt)7 _) IRII - IOOU - _R
2 MeTO)l 1t30XPOH 2
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nCJ1elilHl yMepwHx no taTe POgtIlt)JCHlm II B03paCTY CMepTIl H T )I
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Jt-IH KalKnoro B03pacTHoro npoMCgtKYTtlta nOJlY4aeTcSl nYTeM nocJleshyAOBaTeJlbHoro cyMMHposaHHH 11aHllbiX 0 BCTynHslUHx B uaHHo~1 B(3pacTe B TOT ItJHI IHIOi XpOIlOJllrlllJeCKHii TIepnon II nmJ1elOBashyleJlblIOro BhPHlTaHH5I AaUI-lbIX 0 BblCTynHsllHIX H3 3Toro )Kf XPOllO
nOrHlJeCKOrO nepKona B oaHHOM B03paCTe DOSlCllInt TeXHUKY BblllHCJlCllliH CJ1CoYIOlllIHI npllMepOM B Ta6J1HUC 5a npI1Be~teHbI HClIICIeIITH J(JlIrrelbI-lOCTH nepHOlOa
Ha6mOlleHII51 no S03paCTHblM rpynna~1 J1l5T COBJKYnIIOCfH o6cJleshynosamlblX B 1956 r )JClIl1lHH (2802 4elOAela) no If(lCTHhl1 nepllo
131 no 1941 r 1941 - 19middot15 rr bull 1946-1956 rr BblLJI-ICIleHHH nposhy113BcaeHhl C1CaYIOUIIfM o6pa30M B rparpax 2 4 It G nallo pacrrpEue shyJIC~II1P Bcell COBOKvnHOCTIi o6c~eJlOBaHllblx iKelfllnH no BOJpacl v na HallaTlO lltaiKuoro llaCrHOrO nerHlOJ1a COOTBeTcTBYOIllIle lltela
W)JlY1leHbl nYTCM peoyKIlllH B03paCTlIOrO pacnpe1eJleHlISl Ha MO ]lellT OOcleJlOB3IlHH (rroqa 6) Tal lU1f1 B03pacTlloro pacnpe-leshy
1eIHI5T Ad 1941 r (rpacpa 2) penYlltlrr51 npOH3SE1eHa H3 15 ller
lHl paClipcnCJ1elIliSl Ha 1946 r (rparplt1 4) - 1C1 10 leT B rpacpax 3 5 H 7 nplIBeneHbl aerIHllHlllJ npOiKHTWX neT no OTshy
aeJllgtlIb11 B03paCTHblM npOMeKYTKaM no KaKLlOIY tlaCT~oMy neshy
pilon) BW411cleHIHI 3TIIX BCJlHllfH npOlI3seueHbl cIeAYIOllHlI oGshypa30TII
141
----
Ta6nllL35
PacnmiddotpellenCHHe pOlKJeHHH no BoapacTy amplaTep B MOMeHT POllOB
(o6c~eJoDaIlHe 1955 r )
B()j (laCT gtta lmiddotcpgt1 B MOM ellT pltJI101
B03p3CT ~nTcpll I o ~o ellT 06celloo31I11A
18 I 19 I 20 I 21 I 22 23 I 24 I 8 T JI
I 18 1955 19 1I 20 -2-1 shy21 1 3 1 shy22 I 1 1
4 -6-23 2 3 1 1 2 -2-~24 3
1 225 2 2 5 7
26 1 I 2 4 5 27 2 3 1 2 l 2
2R 1945 1 2 4 3 2 4 3
29 lt 3 2 I 2 41+130 L 5 1 3 1
- 7- 331 4 2 3 4 -2-132 2 3 5 2 5
6 -31 433 3 4 6 -3-34 2 3 5 5 4
35 3 4 7 3 4 7 36 2 3 6 l ) 5 37 2 j I 4 7 a If
33 1935 3 4 2 8 5 4
39 5 4 3 4 4 7I 6 3 8 (jJO -1- 5
--3shy41 2 2 1 5 7 3 3 42 4 6 - 3- 5 4 3
3 -2-143 2 1 4 3 11
44 3 2 () 4middot 6 - 2- 5 - 8shy45 3 l 7 4 4
46 5 4 3 3 5 6
47 5 5 1 3 4 48 2 7 2 5 ~ l
49 J 6 R C 5 l (j50 II CTapwe fi 4 8 9 7 9
Bcero pOlKneHHii 37 77 118 lIt 111 104 IIIl
B TOM IBcne no uepliOnaM
1945-1954 rr 7 18 23 21 26 32 34 1935--194+ rr 12 32 4J 46 47 42 50
110 1935 r 18 2fi 52 44 37 29 32
142
llJJ5I laCToro neplloll3 AO 1941 r (lpacpa 3) IHCJlO HaGmolleH HblX (np0gtKHTblX) JleT H s03pacTe 15 JleT 04eSHllHO paBHO tlllCJlY Bcex 2802 o6cJlellOSaHHblx )KeHtUMH 3a BbIeTOM 12middot~6 IKelJtUI-Hl He llOCnrrWHX K IWHlIY 3Toro lJaCTllOrO nepH01Ia 15 JleT T e 1556
BeJllFIIIHbl llMI B03pacroB 16 17 18 H T Jl nOJlY4eHbI nYTeM rrOCJleJlOBaTeJlbHOrO Bbl4HTaHHSI raquoltElltUHH HaXOllHBlllHXCSI K KOHUY nepHOJla B npeJlblJlYlUeH B03pacTHo~i rpynne (TaK )lJHI 16 JleT
1406 = 1556-150 DJHI 17 J1er 1359 = 1406-47 H T Jl) )lrUI 43CTIOro IlcpHoDa 1941-l945 fT (rpacenta 5) LIlII~10 HCl6
JlIOJleUllbIX (np0gtKWrbrx) JleT B B03pacTe 15 fleT OleSHJllO paBHo qHCJlY gtKeHlliHH sCTynJlBwHx B 3TOT nepHOa IO J]OCTIIgtKeIHlH ]5 neT (l2-l6) 3a BbllleTOM emIHIH He Il0CHlrWHX 3Toro B03paCTa JlO 1946 r (75 J ) MCKOMoe 1HCJ10 paBHO pa3fIOCTIl nllX lIHCeJl T e
1246-751 = 495 T 6 J1 11 L a 5a
HCIHCJlelllle npOJl(HTblX noll tlaonIOJleHlleM 1eT Anll Reeti rpynobl lIIeHutHH no neptO)laM
ItUI10 nposhyIt1J1hlyen 1I 0U
1Ifno lUCO lI uOICA shyIu( lUPfnpClICshy IUlllpCt shyPocnPClC middot npo~nn npOlKTbIX tHle Jle1JlIUUC IlOJlltaUlIOmiddot 11UHc1 CIUlCn[JoaIIThl~ 1I0JllliI61t10 Uil eeL)fCUHUIII
)KCUUUIll nolellHCMOJ 113611lt- ~ltellll(11I1D03p~C1 ACHlH leT nCpH OJl AO ACIlIlt4 neT no oOIn~T) 1t l 33
no BOIshy lIotflurTY Jtl 19~6 IOMCIITU JlO I ~middotI I r
rlOt middot middotY 1t3 lit 1J51i r1J11110 lhu r 1955 rr oIiCl1cIIlt)shy1911 r (Itw rr OnltlUI (1J5I r)
I 7 86~ 3 41
751 751
) 2-16 -no 15 31 2A02) 16 495155615 150 aq 27719164middot1998)6 140047
976 2733 18
75135y 1M aVti17 72 1Jd l79 ~65839241) f512S7
Y4671 25-1038 353) 211HI 42 135 II T ~ 1 T a
21 150 II T lI20 II T n
~3middot17I 7n72 84
22 46
24 23
80-42 )96tl T 1125 98
27 21)
7R 85
29 28
38 30 150 31 47 32 72 33 46 34 42
11 T bull u II T Jl t t
Bcero Q
BemfllHHbl llJlH B03paC10B 16 17 18 1I T lI nOJIytleHbl CJleJlYshyIOlUliM 06pa30M npH6aRJleHbl 1Ilcna )f(eflLLIH1J HaXOllHBWHXC5I K HaLIaJlY nepnoJJa B npeAblllytUej B03paCTHoii npynne (rpacpa 2) 11
143
- -- ---
PaCnpelleJlelllle raquolteI-lllJHII no B03pacry B lOlgtleUT 06C~leLlOBai1l1H II B03paCTY BCT)nJ1eHH5I B 6paK I1Jlli npeKparneHHH 6paKa KdK yKashy3aHO Bhlwe LlaeT B03MOiKHOCTb pacnp el1e1HTb HX no xpOHOnOrHleshyClmM nepHonaM (LlHarOHaJ1blIbiM JTHHHflM I130Xp0l(nl) llJUr KaiK shy
loro B03paCTa nOrOlHO nOJlcqHThlBaeTen lHCJlO COCTOHBilHiX Ii 6pashyKe K KOIIUY nepHOLla (FlnlI ITO TO Me n epeWeJlWHX B COCTOHHHe 6paKa B cleJlYIOLUHii nepHOJl) TaK ~IHCJlO 23-JleTHHX COCTOHBillllX K 6paKe B 1945 r bull nOJTYllaeTC5J no ropH30HfaJlH B03paCTa 33 r Ol la ( Ha MOMeHT 06CJleIlOBaHHfI) rrYTeM CyMIgtIYI[l oaaHIUI BCryf1RBWRX B 6paK no 1945 r H BbllIITaHHH CJIYllaes np eIltpaLUCHH5I 6paKa
18 = 2+ 4 I 5 5 middotH~- 1
LfHCJ1a npoMHTblX leT B OpatJHOM COCTOHHIlI1 nJlSl OT)lenbHbI X
XpOH0J10rH4eCKHx nepHOJlOB (CM Ta6n 6a) orrpeJlenHIOTC5I cneJly shyIO[UHM 06pa30M rroroaI1O I1MI Karaquoltnoro B03pacTa nOCJlenOBaTeJ1bshy110 CYMMIlPYIOTC5I nepeweLltIllle B COCT05HlIe 6pallta T13 npeiJbICyweshyro nepHOla ( r pacpa 2) H BCTymwwHe B GpaK B llaHHOM B03pacTe If
B naHHOM nepnOl1e (rpacpa 3) Ii nOCJ1eJlOBaTeJlbIlO BblllHTalOTCH Dce npeKpanlBWlle 6paK (rpacpa 4) H nepeXOJl5IllJHe B COCTOfllHIC 6paKa B cJ1enYIOwuH n epHOlt (rpacpa 5) Tallt 4liCIJO np0gtKHTbIX OpalHblX JleT B B03pacre 19 J1eT I1J1H liIepHona 1945-1954 rr paBlfo
84= 38+2+ 48- 1- 3
JlSI 22 TIeT
160 = 154 + 6+18- 3-15 H T i
T a 6 Jl II [I a 6a
HCIIICJleIlHe 6paIHoro nepHOJla (lHCna npOlKHTblX neT) J1nJl xpOHOnOrlfeCKOrO nepHOJla
QI(10 iKe lllIllIH 1I lIen n n PO)lt)11LfHeno +C IIlL( HlI lJucno 011 11 11111TO c H t B 6PU 4 110 M BCTynHulIlI II li1l 1H
Aalllloro BlnpaCT(I Jl3 UH OI O UO IpH CTa B n~plloJll COllOSl HlIII 8 LaJt~ p CKpJ shytOCTOSlUIllH 8 C()CTCl 5I BllJItX 9BIIJ p nCT (IWi 1111 r ) T il BllHt X 110 B03P KTC
(ipnKc lin 11118110 liPKC K KOIII Iu n tJIIIIUU 6pnllt H ncpllo middot ne po)1 (1945 r ) lIe l a (K l middot i~ 1 ) (1~IS- 1 9fimiddot1 r r)BO p UCl C
-Ii I 51 2 middot1
_18 -38 - 3 19 12 ~tl 3 84
() 20 1)11 1J9 f)21 2 15425 6
22 18 3 156 160 23 6 17IS 16 161 2middot1 l 2012 10 139
U T jI
1-[
BbiGTeHbl HaXOlI1BWneCn B Toil Ie B03paCTIlOH rpynlle Ha KOHel( 11epHOJla (rpacenta 4)
TaK 449 = 495+ 150- 196 398 = 449 + 47- 98 11 T JI
llJU qaCTHOro nepJoIona 1946-1955 rr (rpacpa 7) BeJllollfHHbl QJTH B03pacToB 16 17 18 If T 11 1l0JT)IeHbl anaJlOrHlIHO naUHblM ilJH nepnola 194 L- [945 rr
TaK 916=751 + 196- 31 976 = 916+98- 38 R T 11 Cnoc06 nOJl)Ie lfH5I Ilall ll bl X )lJl51 Bcero nepHona B ueJlOM (lpashy
ltJa 8) IlOfICneH Bhlwe npHBeLleM erne OllHlI npllMcp fI pllMeHeHIIH MeTOl1a H30XpOll I1JHl
Bb[~IHCJleHHH no n epHOl1aM IIPOlHTbIX 6pa rlIfblx JTeT PaClteT nposhyH3BOLlHTCH no AallRblJI1 pacnpel1eJTeHH5 IeHlLUB no B03paCTY B MOshyMeHT o6CJTelOBaHHH (1956 r) H no B03pacTY scrynrleHHH B 6paK 1-1 ero npel(parneHHH (Ta61J 6)
T a 6 Jl II II a 6
PacnpeAeneHHe 06cneJ(onaHI1b1x no B03pacTY nCTynneHHII H OpeKpalleJlHSI 6paxa
B(J3pa CT B MOICIiT oc rynnclIHR A (ipallt MII npC Kp3utCIIIIR Opa lw
Bf) 3K3CT 91()1 CllT I ltI r~CA()fJIJIfIiSl II I I I I IIS 19 ~n n 22 21 2middot1 II T JI
18 1955 19 J I shy-ashy20 1 t
VI
21 J 2 I 2 22 6 -4 1 5 TIl I 23 5 5 4 3 -=-1
324 6 7 2 2 1 21 I---= 25 4 4 5 32 )
26 5 7 7 j 2 2 2 17 4 ti 7 G 2 32 28 1945 2 j 2 1 29 1 ) 5 1 2(2 30 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 12 31 21 --~ I I 1 2 1 2
- 1-132 2 3 2 1 12 33 2 -1 5 5 1 ---3-1_1 34 3 4 -tl I 2 11) 1_1_
It T 11
fj 194r)-I)) ( 11
tl CTYIIIIIO B 6paK 38 IS middot19 21 J8 Hi ll
flPCK P iITIf 1(l 6pt K 2 1 Ii
1 Iml u ihTYI11UJlUIi X H 0lllli ylhOl~oI h IIHmiddotHrrc1c IUUI ilptM11IHIIIII UnC1C
J~J
C OC TORBWHC II 6pIIc
110 linI1915 r
2 5 6 G
18 12
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19Sr
3 6 6
15 17 20 16 29 21 I 15 1 1 11 8
19 13
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rlpi - B atltmiddot
4 HccneAoBaHHe CBH3K AeMorpa$HQeCKHX npo~eccoB C APyrHMH SlBneHHSlMH
nepeA HccneuOBaTene 1acTO BCTae-r 3alla4a xapaKTepnCTHKI
JlerwrpaqI14eCKHX npoueccoB B CBgtl3H C HEKOTOPbIMH BagtKltblMrt
C06blTl51lH Il nepeMefa ~111 B )IH13HU lltonJleKTlIBa II OTJlCJlbHOrO J1 Hshy
Ila TaKoBo nanpurep H3YleHlle pO)KIlaeMOCTII JeTclltoii olepTshyHOCHI B CBH311 C pU3RIltIJl5IMlI B TpYlle MaTep (npoMblwfleHluuk
HRII HenpOMbIWleIIUblii) 1ltIrJ11 LLHeM Hml (fCYTCTBHeM 3amIT tiK KYshy
CTapllblM npO~lbICJlOr B KpeCTb5lHCKlIX CelMIX ncpeCeJlCHl-leM B HO
Bble )KIIJ1I1Ula H l iTO B CBoe BpeM5I 6b1rlO oco6emIO BaXltHO nCTynshyleHIleM B KO1JleKTIIBIOe X035l1IcTBO C aKKilHMaTII3aUlleii npB nepeshy
ceneHlIfI B ApKTHKY B BblCOlltoropHble paiiollbi II T bull t OGblllllO B
11 IIX c~yqaSIX InYlfellue BpoundleTCSI nYTeM conOCTaB1elllHI JtBYX KOJIshy
leKTrIBOB 06J1analOI1lIlX (( lie 061aaaIOlllIH laIlFlWM npR3H8KOM ()aHaKO npaKTlltIeCllI lIeB0310gtKHO nOlblCKaTb Ko1rJeKTIIBbl lOCT8shy
TOlIfO OJlIIOpOQHhle BO nce~1 OCTaJlbIlOM II 3TO eCTeCTBellllO 3aTshy
PY)lHfleT 3allltlllY IIcCnClOBClHIf51 If HepellKO uCJlaeT ee lIepa3pCllIIIshy
oIoii Tallt HanplfMep npB conOCTaBJleHllH llByX KOJlJ1eKTIISOBshy
gtKlmylllllx B 1I0BbiX lolax H )OiBYUlIiX B CTapLIX llOM8X - nml IICshy
crlenOBaHIIH BJ1IWHII51 iKlUlIllllHblX YCJlOBlIii lla pmK)laeMOCTb UJIH
lleTCKYIO CMepmOCTb lJpe3Bbl l JaiiHO TpYliHO rrCK~IOIlITb BIJII5IHIH~ f03paCTllblX CounaJlbHomiddot6blTOBblX 11 llpyrHx pa3111LJII~i MegtKlY Te-I npli allaMHeCTlI4eClltO1 ~leTOlle B03~IOgtKHOCTb o6pa30BalllHl 13 aaHshy
1I0ii reHepaJlbHOii COBQKynHocTII LIZCTHbiX COBOIltYIlHOCTeir no llaHshy
11O1Y npOll3BonbHO BbI6pallliOY npl13HaKY (HanpllMep nepeceneshy
lTle B HOBbie )lOMa) o6eurocneLJ HBaeT llOCTaTOlJHYIO oanopoaI-lOCTb
)TIIX LJaCTllbiX COBOIltynHocTeti B OCTaJlbHblX OHlOwellllfiX H nprrJ18er
nonylJ8(~lbTM p(3)~bTaTa1 HeoUxoaHMYIO T04HOCTb 3aCCb BCCJleshy
nOBalnle BelleTca KaK UbI B yC~OBHI1X LtHCTOrO 3KCneplllleHTltI Tn 0 VCJlOBIHII OllblTa BIlt1101laCTC51 JlIIOO HCIltJlI0lJaeTCSl lleiicTBHe Toro
lInll- HHoro qaIltTOp1
Ana 1 HeCTllteC1Wli ICTO OTIltPblrJ B03MOgtKHOCTb 13Y4ellHH 3TIlX
BlefIHii B )KelJaeIO~( HarrpaB1eHIII1 6e3 npoBeAelllSI CJlOKllbIX
fWHTpOl bH blX llCCJIIlOsaH JJ if np((MCHSlSI VleT0Jl 1I811eTHbiX PSlAOB MO)f(lIO p83JeJlHTb Hccneshy
tyellYlo COBolltynllocTb Ila tfaCTIfW~ c OBoKyrrHOCTlJ oGnaJlalOlllHe aIlHbl~l npu3HarmiddotarIH C YIeTOM B03pacT8 H XpmfOJlOrHtjtcKoro
nepllola a Ta6111lf lIoe pacrr pelleJHHlTe nOMoraeT YCTa HOBIlTb lJHCshy
JleHIlOCTb HCClelyeMolx 5IBJleHllii (p0gtKJJellHi-i cMcpTeii 11 T a)
cooTBeTcTBYIOUlI1X Te IJlI HllbiM lIaCTUblM cOBollt)middotnIlOCT5IM TaK
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lIf4HSl B n10aOBHTOCTlI 10 nepeCeJleHI15I B HOBbIe llOCeJIKIl 11 nocJte rrepecenemw no naLJaJla pa60Tbi B aalfllOr npocpCCCllll II B nepHOl
pa60Tbl B neil
nlH YCI30eHlI1 MeTOlIl4eCKHX npennocblJlOK nOAo6HblX HC4HCJI(gtshy
II If i 1l01e3I10 BOCnOJlb30BaTbCSl rpaqH4ecKI1~1H KOllCTPYKUIHIMI1 lleshy
~Orpacpl14eCKHX npoueccoB B BITae J1HHHii OTpagtKalOllIHx Te4eHHe
146
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lem Hi (ltltgtK13HeHHblf JlIlHIHIraquo JIeKcHca)
MeTOA TaKHX HC4HCJIeHHH n051CHHM lIa CJlellYlOllIeM npllMepe lIashy
WliX HCCJlellOBaHHii HaCeJleHHH 1I0BblX pa004HX nOCeJlKOB
113YQeHIIIO nOAneiKaJlH CllBHTll B pOgtKllaCMOCTli R JJeTcKoimiddoti
c1epT HOCTH B CBfT31l C nepecencHHeM B HOBble aOMa ECJlH Tpaqmshy11eCKrl H306pa311Tb B BHlIe pfTlla gtK113HeHllb1X Jl HHH H 06CJ1eaoBaHshy
Hbll KOJlJleKHIB (CM pnc 9) TO Ha KagtKaoi-i 113 COOTBeTCTBYIOWHX
gtKH3ReHHblX JIIlHlljf MOgtKlIO OTMeTIlTb TOlJKOH llaTY nepeCeJlellHfI B
HCBble llOMa B CSfl3H C KOTOPblM H3YLJaeTCfI pOgtKllaeMOCTb H leTshyCKt1fT CMepTlIOCTb 3TH T04KH pa3JJeJl51IOT (agtKllYIO gtKH3 HeHHYIO JIli
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c TynleHHH )laHHOro C06bITHSI HeTpyaHO BHlleTb ITO BeCb pRa OTshy
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a Ha npaBhlX - PO)f(leI-IH5I HMeBW ITe VleCTO nocJle HacrynJlelH a8HHOro C0 6blTHSl ( n e pecelCHHfI)
CoorueTCTBellllO TaKoMY pacrrpelleleHlfIO I1CC1eaoB8IlIIe BelCTcrt
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ro KOJlJTeKTHBa B nepllOll IIX )IltH3fiH n o n epeCeJleHfISl B HOBbIe 1l0ra
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rI vI3ytteHlle p0iKLlae MOCTl aJlH cOBOKynHOCTli )KeIlUlHH DaIlIlOshy
ro IltGJlJTeKTUBa B nepHOll nOCJle nepecerleHH5I B nOBble JJOMa
3lleCb COBOKYrTllOCTb p0gtKUeHIlH 06pa3yeTCfT aUaJlOrHlIHO Bhlwe npllBenellllOMY - ll~ pO)f(lleHlH HMeBumx tecTO nocJle rrepeceJleshy
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152
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Ie 6epe-l elllloneft K 1lltlllllblll 0 HlCJ1e npQKHTbIX neT nOHCH H1 nplI~le1elllle nor[ MCTOJI1KII 1Ia npl1Mepe (CM Ta6n I)
~3f1TOM 13 Hcclle10BaIlHH npOBenellHoro n o HaMallraHCKOMY parlOshy
Hy Y36eKCKoii CCP B 1936 r Bcero 6bJno on p omello 2802 )KellWlI shy
lbI B B03pacTe OT 15 J eT 1I Tapwe (E C TilM) K a K BHlHO li3 T a6nHubl I-leno npO)KIHblX neT 3a rOllH4ltbi e H
n51THJleTIlHe B03pacnibie npO1eilltyrKll (OT 15 110 50 neT) llJlSl Beeii o6cnellOBltlllHO ii C0130Jlt ITHOCTH x~ell UlliH HCIHcneHO MeTO]lOM lIalle rshy
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8
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IllHl B B03pacTe 15 neT H T bull1B rparpe 5 f11pHBeJeHo pacnp ele~eHHe Bcex pOileHHH no 1303P1shy
CTY laTepH K MO~lellTY potOB I 1[10 B conOCTaBlffilJUI C 4HCJ0-J InDO shy
1 Ta611l4ROC pacnpeAeJIllIl1C l8UllblX 0 pO)KIleIlIHIX IlO B03palTY MaTepH
8 MOMeliT pOlOB npIlSelCHO B TaGJI 5
134
Boapac-r
1 -
15 16 17 IR 19
454u 47 48 40 50
CTaprne 50 B cero shy
Ta6J1fiua 1 HCIHCJleHHe nJlOJlOBHTOCTH (o61UeU)
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lla MO)tC HT ~leT B ll all- HOM DOJpaCTe (06 11len) B nposhy1 enl II 06C eilOshy 110 U03shy (I( MOMC II TY p OAOO) UcHT8X pyln~)1
OAIIIlR parTe no lUiTlt~leTllRM rp 5 rp4
2 3 middot1 5 6
31 2802 38 277 1 75 2733
118 2658 71 2540 13504
62 676 39 614 20 575 25 555 )- ) 530 2 950
507 2802
lKHT bIX neT 3a TIOT iKe B03pacrHo~i nepHoJ
cpHUHeHThl o6UJeii ilnOl0poundlltH1CCTH ( Ipacpa 6) DonY411B B03pacTHblt nOKa3aTeJIII oomen
MellHfI BemllfIf BCTyntmW1fX B
H onllospeMeHlio BbJtllITaHHH H3
TOM IKe Boapacre ( rpacp a 3) a
MNIT HaOmOlleHH1 (rpa (~a 4)
20~1 150
131 44
(rpa rp a 4) laeT K03rpshy
nJlOllOBI-ITOCTH H npl1 shy
UIMa51 3a CTallllapT B03paCTHoii Ii rronoBoi1 eOCT3f HaCeneHH5I KpaH
06JlaCTU pccny6J1HIH 1erKO HClIHcnlITb 1lt03 CllCjHllll1eHTbl o6weii
nJIOllOBIITOCTH H CJlCnOB3TfUlbI0 pOgtKpoundlaeMocTH
B cOBpeMellHbl x leMOI pacpHLleCIltBX I1CCnellOBaHHHX 60JlbWOe 3IIashy
l1eHHe npHll3eTCH H3Y l leIlllIO 6pa IIMOi nJlOllOBHTOC TH KOTOpa1 KaK
H3BeCTHO 60Jlee TOlHO 4eM 06waH xapaKTepl13yeT CPYllKUHIO BOCshy
np0l13BOllCTBa laCeJIeIlH5I HaJlH4He 13 onpocHo~i KapTe IlaT 3aKJIIOshy
leHlI51 II npelpawemISl 6p3la laeT B03MOgtKHOCTb IIC411CJlIlTb nposhy
nOJl)lHTeJlbllOCTb 6palllc)ro nepIlOla - 4JlCJlO ll1OiKllTblX B 6paKe
eT AJISl OTleJlbllbIX B031aCT0I3
DPH HCllFfcnemiH n pmlunblx 6pa l lllblx JleT npIIHHMaeTC1 130 BtI shy
vfamfe pacnpenenelllfe 06CneJlOBaIlIibIX a) no 1303pacTY BCTyoneshy
111151 B 6paK 6) no 130apJCTY npelpaLUNIH1 6pala B) COCT05ltlUlX B
6pale flO M3pacry B MOMerlT 06CJlelloBaHlTa
KaK UHll1I0 113 Ta6JTIlUbl 2 laHHble 0 IHCJIe npO)lHTblX 6pa lllblx
n eT (rpacjJa 5) nonYl atOTc5I nOCpelcTBOM nocnel0BaTeJlbHOrO CJlOshy
6paK B Aa ll Hoot 1l0apaCTe (rpacpa 2) noro 4Hcna npeKpaTHBwHX 6paK 13
TalOKe COcrOHBWHX B 6paKe B W)shy
135
Tallt B rpacpe 5 BC IH LJHlI a )2 ll l-m 20 - l eTIIC lo o03 pac-f a l1 oJlY -l e l1 C1
c n enYIOlllHM o6 p a30M
52=42 + 23-2-11
Til 6nHua 2
H CI HCJleH He npO~OJ1lK HTeJ1bHOCTH 6palHOrO nepKO)la
( 4HCJla npolKKTblX 6pa4 Hbix Jle T)
nl HTC1bTl OtT bP3 COPC4ClIClilie o(iCo_ o oallllhlX liplIH IOr O nepHoADB OMeHTn o OOJpaCTY Til KC (IUI(IO n p OKHThiX OOC1CttOOtHIUSI 110 grll
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IIn6IOJlOIl11lAq 6131lt0ij OPUK
654321
24-24 -18 66middot121]9 -19 5211 22J 20 67-l22121 80 2
l 3]8 22
90-13 23 ~8798 51I-f24
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Tbl X ( rr pOBefleHll blX n ou na 6 J1IOlle1lHeM) o p alillbI x JleT B Tex )Ke B03shy
palax MO)KHO BbPfH1CJl HTb C()()1BeT~rByl0lllUe B03pacTIIble K03CPCPHshy
lHellTbI 6p a llllOH TTJlOllOBHTO CTH HccneuosaHHe cMepTHocTH no rrpHMeHellH51 alllaMI-leCTHlJeclwrlt )
MeTOfl3 6W J1 H n On blTKH on p elleJIellH5I yrPOBH5 CWP T-IO tT H H3 OCII O_ shyll31lHH 06lllRX lla UllblX noceMellllcro o rrpoca 0 -I HCJ1e y Mep w Hx Ileshyreti B OTllow ellHH K ILHCJI Y P0 -UJl3WHXCH 13 la ll-oii ceMbe JIerKo ITQshy
II11 Tb 4TO pe3YJI bT a TW TaKHX HCCJle)10SaIlHH H I3bll30lbl Ha IIF1X O~ shyIOBaIlbl BeCbMa n p n6J1H3IrTeJ1bHo
H 3BeCT l-l bi T a f(e n On bl Tl(H onpeiJeJlell HH a ll a JlOri4 11blM nYTel
liHClla lcTei1 c Ta pwe ( n ep e)KHIlWf1X) 1 HJlI1 5 J1eT peillte 15 JIeT K03cpcpHLlHeHTbl mlaquo~fTHoCTIl BblseJeH HL Ieuro KaK OTHOLUeHHe -IHC_lJ
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IJTCYTCTBHe 13 1lt0 10 COOTBCTCTBHH CHH3HJlO B 3Ha l l HTeJIbHOii cren ellll
lle IJII OCTb HC4HCJJel-mli n o IBIUIlt ell II 10 ll aCeJlelliHI ll apOllllOCTeii cel3eshy
pa npn npOBellelilHl n p i-InOJl HPllblX I1epenHCe l~i B 20-30-x ronax
CMepTHOCTh MOleT 6blTb onpeueJlelfa 1ocr3TOLtHO TO-IlI0 ne
1 a lfI l bI M 0 lIepeiKHS3eMOCTII nOJlYli ae~tbl M l-Ia OCII00 311 1111 TaUJlH I
OlepTHOCTH MaTepH3Jl co6paHHbI~i lI a OCHOBe 311aMHCCTHlleCKoro
MeTona J]3eT B03MOKHOCTh n OCTp oeHIlH Tal(HX Ta6JJKU _
OC06etlHOCTb H3) LJae10ro sorrpoca norpeGo-saJla pa3neJIh ll Oii
~leTonHKR IJlH OnpEUeJIeIlHR a) CMeuroPTHOCrJ[ ueTeii IO 15 -Jl eTHer o
B03paCTa 6) cMepTlloCTll B3pOCrIO PO Ha Cene lt flH ( c Tapwe 15 Jle1 )
lI13Ylell He CMep TIIOCTII ( n epe)KHSaeMOCTlI ) neTCKoro II aceJIeu lhl
OCHOBaHO lIa CJIenYIOlllHX MeTOnl- l leCKliX npeJl110CbIJlKax
KaK BHJHO 113 1[)HBeneHHor o Bbl we 06pa3ua onpocHo~i KapTb
B cseJeHIUIX 0 Ka )fnOM tpOlKleHIH COlepLK3rc sr naRHole 0- c yJbue
pe-6eHKa )KHB JIM K M o [ ell i ry oOc1eJIOBaHlIH a eCJll[ YMep f O 13 ltashy
]OM 1303paCTe 310 n03Bomle1 rr p 51Mbl M MeTOIOM n ocTpoHTh T 36JHt shy
-qy OlepTIJOCTII lJI H le-refi uo J5 -JleTl ero B03paCTa 1 BbSeCTlI Heshy
06xonHMhle 6 loMeuroTp n4ec KHe llOK33 ill eJll
OrpaHHltJeH HC 15-JleTII IM BOlpaC1OM IOf(HTH5f HMceT cephe3110e
npaKTIiQeCKOe 0 6ocHoBa Hl1e TaK KaK MaTep J[ He TOtI llbI S YKa3 aHHII
B03paCTa CMepn1 1J151 neT6i yrlepWIX CTa p we 15 J1eT_
MaTb TO-l HO onp eIeJlHeT B03pa CT 1l0f( II TlIH lIJl H CMepTI neTeii
lIaxorUtBWHXCH npH l-Ie~i 13 ceMhe 06W liHO 10 15leT T if 6 I I II 1l 1 3
T a6J1Klla nepelKHllaeMOCTK AeTe (Manb 4HK()B)
o ~3111 10M a031ftCT~
AOlKIIIO tI1paClipCAC shy1I ilU1LIl Ofi~lelUlC 10middot
npooclOBltnpan DCTYlHlMl ycpno JOlftl10 1000 IlCTyshygtfltIlBUUIx IHU Ha shy lla 1000y~ICp10 nOll IIa - nt lDW ~ftl la MOMCIIT 100061fllICIIIIC~1 (~p 1 r 5)6 11040111 11011 IHl -O(jC1CIOshy
6110olCIIHCBGJlIIH
I l l j ~ 6 7 8
() 26 137 724 6~25 211 787 1000 1 4H 60 56 1 5070 l iS 882 787 2 38 -Hi ti3 middotf I 0 () 11 7 88l 69t 3 33 26 167 1375 77 923 613 4 25 ]0 jOS 2rJ l) ) 35 965 566 5 24 8 273 257 0 31 969 548 6 31 Ii 2-l1 2215 36 964 sao 7 1-1shy 5 202 1925 26 074 511 8 19 ~ 183 172 U 17 9amp1 499 9 ~ 1 161 1565 6 994 ~90
() 18 J ]i2 I n 0 28 972 -187 11 15 - 1~(J 1225 - 1000 474 12 14 1 115 1075 9 991 474 13 11 J 100 9-10 11 98~J 47) 14 15 II
-85
1 88 x7
875 II 989 455 -160
CTapUlet c r 0 409 1I f
Tltl6JlllUa CMepTflOCTH (nepegtKHRaeIOcm) AeTeii IO 15 Jler
Ta6J1 3) COCT3SJleHa IT O na ll l l blM o6CJleuoo31lllfl napntlluen CUashyrecTall) I
I )laprIllIUbl COlur3TbHO-fllrtlemlleCKOC ncc1t1l0Salllle lfa p 01lHOCTCil LlareshyC1311a BbilT I 1930 nOl1 pea3KIlHeiI A_ B MOflbKOS3 A r EllI lcjJ3110B3 _ n JIOI10shy8HTOtTb IlilpnffiKTI neTCKan CMepTllOCTu
137
136
Dpu ana MHeCn IIeCKIIX HCCJIenOUCllllUIX nJl51 nOJIyqellHf Ja IHIblC
o nepe)HBaeMOCTIl resp CMepTHOCTH B3pOCJIOro HaCeJIeHH5I npHMeshyl151eTC5I TaK Ha3bll3aeMbl H lleTOn laquo6paTbeB H ceCTepraquo (Geschwisshylermelhode)
06belltTOM Hccnenosa Il H51 51BJl5leTCft B3pOCJlOe I1aCeJleIHle-crapshy
we 15 JleT onpawllBaeMoe 06 HX 6paTb5lx H ceCTpax (naTa pOlKUeshylUI fl B03paCT nonlt HTI151 CMepTlI) Onpoc UOJDKell BeCTlICb T3K tITushy
Ubi H3GegtK3n lBoHtloro Cl(eTa T e onpoca JlHLl SlBn5l1OIlUIXCil
GpaTb5lMj[ H ceCTpaMIf pauce onpOllleHllblx nOJlYLlemlblfl T3KlUl
06pa30~1 M3Tepl1al n03BOJI5)eT lIa OCHOBe n OKa3allai1 np0631AOB Q
ceue II HX 6paTbSlX H cecrpax nOCTpOIITb npSlMhlM MeroAoM Ta6J1Hshy
UbI ClIepTHOCTH (nepegtKHBae~lOCTII) B3pocnoro HaCeJleHHf CTapUle J) JleT
OrpalltlLlellllC ) 5-JleTlilIM B03P1CTOM KaK II HgtJltfHii B03paCTlIOii
I paullueii nepeiKlIlIamm HMeeT n 3AeCb cyweCTBenlloe npaliTIlLieshy
clwe 311ltJ4ellHe OnblT 110llta3bfsaeT LITO aalltrbe 0 B03paCTe nmKIshy
Tiff II CMepTH 6p8TbeB II ceCTep nonYIaeMhle ~ B3POCrlOfO nacencshy
111[51 OTJlllllaIOTC51 CpaBHIITeJlhHOi i TOlHOCTblO HMeHHO AMI B03paCTOR CTapllle J5 ](~T TaK Kal( B3pOC10e lIaCeJIellHe oGb(lTlIO I1lOO OCBCshy
)lOMJIeIlO 0 B03paCTe OlepTII opaTheB II ceeTep y~leplllllx B MJla 1shyWIX B03paCTax B oc06ellllOctu B paHlieM neTCKOM B03p3CTe
CTrOrO rOBOp51 aoe npelnmKellllble MeTOJlI1KiI ~1J]f1 )leTCKoro II
B3pOCJlOro lIaCeJIenmr JIleHTH4t1bl TaK KaK pa3lUllalOTCgtI OHH ro Ibshy
100 U HCTOlJHIIKe rrOJlyqellllfl eBeJreHlIii B nepBOM cnytJae onpalllHshy
HarOTe$ MaTepl1 0 t)1b6e IIX 1eTeii 60 BTOpOI - onpaWIIBaeTCfl
~3poc10e lIacelefllle 0 CYAboe OpaTbCB II ceCTer I no=n07l1Y pe3Y1bshy
TaThI OUCJIel1OBaHHH OlHOrO II loro nlte Kon1eKHIBa ~1O~KH0 oGbC 11Ishy
III1Tb 6 CBO)Ulble Ta6JIIIUhl CMepTIIOCTI1 (nepegtlllBaeMOCTlt) H BbI4IfCshy
JlHTb OCIlOBllble 6110MCTIJIILleCIWe np1i3HaKTi CPClHIOIO npotom([ shy
1eJlbllOCTb gtK1I3Hll K03QJcpllUHenT CMepTHOCTII CTaUHOliaporo HaC~shyre1Jll1H
TIp fl3y4ellflH rtepe)iHBae1OCTH 1eTe~i B oco6ellllOCTH B B03pashy
CTe JJO 5 JleT C I1X OTIJOCI1TeJIbHO 6blCOKHM KOHPCPUUHCHTOM CMepTIlOshyCTH MOgtKHO nOJlb30BaTbCf CpaBIIlITeJlbllO orpaHHlleHHbl M MaTepllashyJOM HanpoTIIB H3y4emle O-lepTHOCTIl B3pocnoro lIaCeJIeHII5I 6JIashy
rO)lapH HH3K01Y B03paCTHo~ly K03IPIPHUHeHTY tlepJTHOC11H rpeGyer 60J1ee 3Ha4HTellbHoro ~1aTepllaJa
IhY4eHHe BocnpOH3BOACTBa HaCeJleHHIS1 ITon)tlCIIIILle Illllilde
o pmKJaeMOCTJ1 resp nnOJlOBWrOCrn CMepTHOCTlI resp nepegtKHBashy
l MOCTH n03BOnHlQT oxapaKTepH30BaTb npoueCChl BoenpoH3BoJJcTBa
Il aCeJIelll1 H B BeCb~[a 6agtKfI blX JlOKa3aTeJIHX
i C~CAyCT ynoMllII)Tb eUtC oei )lItOM pa3J1i1 l llJI OPII unpoce MaTcpeii noJIYshyliIlOTCll Jl3HHbJe 0 Bcex GpaTbflX II ceCTpax OLlI0f rellep3UIIH ue33BIICHMO 01
TOro JlOgtKIIJI JIll KTO-JlHCiO 113 lUX 0 lOMeIlTa O(jCICliOBaUI5[ np onpoce B3pOCshyJIOrO H3CeJj(~H~1l 0 CYllb6e 6paTbCB II ceeTep nOJlytaIOTCl llatlllblC 0 upaTbR II ceCTpax OllHHX 11 -rex )KC reflepaUIliI HeJ3BliCHMQ 01 113Jl11IHSI [l gtKIIBbiX fiX MaTcpeil 110 olil13aTeJ1bHO npeAc-r3BJleHHLIX XOTll 6b1 OllllllM JIOgtKIIBWIiM Ha MOMeHl lla6JllOIlelUHI n p 063I1JIOM TaKIiM oCipasoM 113 lla6JJIOllellHlI BbJll3J13101 rpyn lthl CipaTbeB II cec-rep 1l0rO1C1BIIO SbllepIIHle K MOlellTy OCiCJlellOB 311 Il II
138
J
PeCIb HAeT 00 ~iC4nCleHlm K03QgtIlJHuHeH Ta BocnpoH3soJJCTna Hashy
CeJIeHFlH no MeTOAY 5eKa n03BOJlHIOmeMY Ha OCHose JJaHHhIX 0 l1 eshy
pegtKHBa HHtI gtKeHCKO r o HaCeJleHH n c o oTBeTcTsYIOlUHX B0 3pncTHblX
nOKa3aTeJleii nlO)lOBIlTOCTYI YCTaHoBII Tb 411CJIO OgtKHJlaeMbIX pOgtKJleshy
Hflii JlJl51 Bc ero Jlaml Or O nOKOJleHIH H BblBecTI nOKa3aTeJH Bocnpo-
113BOJJCTBa I
XOA COOTBeTCTBYIOUlHX Bbl 4HCJIeHHH n p HBeJJeH B Ta6J1Hue 4 ( n o
naHHhlM 06cJleJJosaHHH MeH3eJlHHCKOro pai10Ha T aTapcKou
ACCP) 2 T a6Hua 4
Bocnpo H3BOACTBO nOKOn e ll iI (AnR n OKOneHH C Ha laJIbHOIi 1 HCne tI HOCT b lO B 1000 lK)
B03pacTllhlc middotpyn n
I
JltQ11IlCCTDO POlKII-TblX leT
I03IjlqllllHIIT 1I 1 OaD-PIITOCTH (npo ~cITI)
lI11cO pOlKJe ll n 8 A3l1ll0A 903paCTllO if
fP YIlIlc rp 2xrp a
4
15shy 19 20-24 25--21 30shy 34shy35-39 40-44 45-49
Bccro
2595 2456 2217 2056 I 934 L80 1 1685
4 1 28 0 320 275 238 12 3 28
106 687 709 565 46 1 222 47
2 797
M 1045 OonoaaSi npOIlOPUIII )K 1UUO
279 l(09cpqlllUlfCIlT BocnpOll3BOllCTB8 R = 2045 = 137
Ha OCHOBe COOTBeTCTBYIOUlHX TaOnJlIl CMepTHOCTIt (nepegtKHBaeshy
MOCTI) COCTaSJlfle-rcSl PHn BblpagtKalOllIllH LfHCJlO KeHIllHH JlOgtKB shy
UlHX JlO KagtKJlOrO B03paCTHOro npOMegtKYTKa (113 Ua4anbHOH tlliCshy
1eHHOCTH 1000 POAIIBWUXCfl gtKeHllllm) lUI tlTO TO Ke l(HCJlO leT
npOgtKHTblX U a HilblM nOKOneHIHH gtKelUlVfl B Jla HHOM B03paCTe
LlallHble 0 nepegtK~IBaeMOCTH MoryT 6bITb B311TbI H3 OOUltrX Ta6shy
JlIIIl CMepTHOCTH HaCCJle ll llfi CTpallbl o6J1 8CT II 1 IIJli H3 TaCimlIl 110 shy~y4eHllblx npH aHaMHeCTHlJeCKOM 06CJleAOBaHHH
B rpallJe 2 Ta6nHUb 4 nOKa3aHO iO1H l leCTBO np0gtKFlTbIX JleT
irrJlSI nOKOJleHHfI reIHUIf Il C Ha4aJlbHOH l(HCJIeHHOCTblO BlOOD llen n shy
YK33aJlllbli[ MCTOJI nOJlytlClillfl 110K333Tenerr BocnpOH3BOJlCTBa IlII1POtO npt middot ollileu Il 20--30-x rOllax WllleCTHb11 r cpMallCKIIl JIeMorpacf1oM KYIII11CKlll
OGOUUUIDIllHM 3I1alHTCJlbllblll MaTepll3n no CTpaHaM MHpa C Ilb(tlllCJeIllICM rpy60ru IipYTTO) H 1I1CTOrn (HeTTO) nOI333TeJIl BOCnpOHIIlOACTBa
3TOT MeTOJI 6bll npICnell MIfOIO OlIlOllpeMeHIiO C KYIIlHCKIiM H I J e~ aTlHCHshyMO OT lIero K3K II KYIlIHCI(IIH SI IICXOnHJr 11 3 OCHOBHblX nOJIO)lelllifl pasp a6o shyTaHllblX BeKOM
2 lt1gt r My x a Mel blip 0 B K Bonpocy 06 113YleBHI BOCI1POH3BOJlCTfla lIoKOneHHil Ka3a ncKllii Men )Ipllan ~ 6 J93 1
3 I1MelOTcSI B BHJlY TaOJlIlUbI CMCp TIi OCTH COCTillgt1lCMbIC OprilHaIH o cP unHshy2JlbHOli CTaTIICTIIKJI na OCHOe3111111 llanRblX nepenHceif u yler3 tlBHIKCnllll Hacc 1ell Ifll
139
Eellt) COOTBeTCTBermo nOp5lLII(a nmKHTlHI no TaUJlIlUaM CMepTHOCTH CJCTaBJleHHbllll no nalIllbl~1 npOH3BenellHoro HCCl1eaOBa HlI51
K03centcentrUIHenTbf 06lleH rrJlOJQBUTOCTII (rpacpa 3) nO1y4eHul hpJ
TO~I )Je rrCCJlenOB~lI1HJl
DpOU3BeneHIl5T laHHblX rpacjgt 2 II 3 nalOT no llt3gtKJ1oii B03paCTshyHoii rpynne BeJIIl4HHY o)JlfJaelblX pOgtKleHII~i (rpacjgta 4) H fiX CYMshyMa 2797 Bblpa)faeT o)JIHtaeurolOC KOMI4CCTBO po)aefllrir OT Bcero noshylOJlCIH1~ )eIlWHT T c fIllCleHHOCTb reHepaUHlT BocnpoH3scnCHshy
hOll HaLJaJlbHhI~1 nOKOI(lle~1 lellllITlmiddot rrpli taIlHOM nOp5lnKe nepeshy
gtKIIBaHlIH
COOTI-lOllIellllC ~JIlCla POJlIIAUlllXCH MalhlJHKOB H oCBOlfeK no naHshy[(b1~1 aBTopa COCTaBJlHlO 1045 1000 OTCIOna lI3LJaJlbliaH lIllCJleIl shy
HOCTb Bcera nOKOJlCHIIH npHH51T~1 B 2045
CTleJoBaTeTbHo 1lt03cprp1UnellT BonpotI3floncTBa OPYTTO paBeH
2717 _Rb = ~o15= l 3r
I03rpcjgtlfuneliT BocnpoH3BoacTsa lIeno
_ 2lt)7 _) IRII - IOOU - _R
2 MeTO)l 1t30XPOH 2
Dpl-I rrpOBCJIeIlJlI aHallleerH4eCKlIX IICClenOB3mni JlCMorpacentnshyleCKne lTpOUeCCbl MoryT 6JITb 13Ytellb perpOCnelltTIlBHO no OTshyJefbHbIM HHTepeCYIOllII~1 HccnenOB3Te1H XpOHO10rtflJeCI(lJM n(-p~loshy
aai TaK B03MO)JHO cpaBIIHTeJlbHOe H3y~el--me pOJKIae10CTH
cepTHOCTIi npoueCC05 Bocnp01l3BonCTS3 rrace1ellllH 3a neplIOJlh1 10peSOJ1l0UHOIHLlir (ao 19 18 r ) H nOCJlEpeBOJIlOUHOHHblii 3a uoshyBoeHHblii (1918-19middot10) II 1l0CJleBOeffliJlj H 3a 6oec lleTa~bHble XpoHO10rlf1-leCIltlC nepollhl (lla nplnlep 5- 1O-1eTH lie II T n) 3TO ooecne4HBaeTC51 npmleleHlIEM MeTona 1I30XPOf OCHOBalIIIOlO na pacnpeleJleHlI1 cooTBer crByrOllI1X naHHblX B TaK Ha3hTSaelblX Ta6shy
J1Tuax Tpex 1I3MepeliHii
I 06wenpIIHflTIJC B I ac rOllwee apeln GpyTTO 11 flerro - 1OjJrVIIllIfCHTbI BocnrOIf3BOnCTB3 IICIIIIC111101Cfl IICCKOJlbKO THialle II o603I1a IIBTOT I) 6pYTTOshyKOltjJijllTUlICIiT (B3lOIlOii rpy6blii nOKa3aTC~b) BOCrrpOll31l01lCTila - 4IC10 lC60shyIltK POC1ClillbIX Il qClIlC~1 OJ1I1Oli (llllllIfIiOli 3a uel nJlO)l06HTblil nepHOD cc WiIlH II 2) neTTo-Ko3cjJltjlHlHleHT (OtIllWlHHblf DOK33aTCb aOCllpOIl31l0ilCTB3 mlla3)Tlt1[ IIIICToro t ocnpo1l3BocTlla) - TO iKe COOTH OWeHlli MBTtpeii Ii l104Cshypdi L10 C YTO~I j1a3~H pOI3 c~lepTH(ICTII gtKClIIlIIIH B B03pacTc 10 50 JleT (Kolla 11J10JlODIiTOro lleplIOJla KIL3HI ilCllllllIllW) OrpaKellHWX B TaOJIIIllaX CMCPTtIOCTI )h(IICKOro 113tCJICllliR J(TOHIKY BWIflC tellust 3TlIX 1I0Ka1aTeeii eM I) A 51 [j 0 $I pc K II ii Kypc1e~lOrpal~IIleCloli e1-aTIiCTIIhIImiddot M 1945 eTp 84- 90 2) A 5I [) 0 SI P ( I II II II n n III Y III e p 11 It laquolJeMorpacjJllqc(laR CTaTHCTllIlt8 M 1955 erp 290---3UO A M_ J e p Ilt 0 11 laquoJlc~OrJlacjJlIllecKaR CTaTIICTIIKaraquo 1950 eTp l ui [G6 _ Ped
2 l M TllOI( CTp 22 c(i(lPHIIK1
1middot0
Ta6J11lua 5 nOKa3blBal0llafl pacnpelleJlCHlle pO)lJleIlIIH flO B03shypacTY )eHllHR B MOMellT o6CJleIoBamHI (nowegtKalllCe) il no IIX
B03paCTY B MOfeIlT P021nellllH peGeHllta (cKa3yeMoe) 11aeT B03shyMOiKHOCTb pacnpeneJlNIIHI ITO COOTBeTCTBYIOUlIIM oloIarOHaJlflM Tex Ie C06h1TIIH no XpOIIOJlOrHlJeC[lIM llaTa~1 To iKe B CJ1Y4ae pacnpcshy
nCJ1elilHl yMepwHx no taTe POgtIlt)JCHlm II B03paCTY CMepTIl H T )I
3m n~larOllaJlH HOCHT na3BaHHC 1130XpOI (JIeKcHc-KHanrr) T c J111 lTJlIl COelIlIl5IOWIIX TOllKII c06bITmi OJlIl1aKOBOro BpeMeHloI MOgtKshy110 rOBopllTb He TOJlblW 06 H30XpOlax MIHH~X HO II 06 H30XpOH
HbX nJlOwanHX (lf30XpOHHbIX nOJllHOHax) orpalllllleHHbIx oBYfH H30xpoHa MI1 nooctteTbI no 1oI30xpoHaM no l30XpOllllblllt nOllHroshy
113M naIOT pacnpenerrCIIle OCHOBHoil cOBoKynIlOCTl (pOgtKJ1eHni-i CMcpTeii II T a) no COOTBeTCTBYIOWHM XpOIlOJlOrH4eCI-IM neposhy
ua1 COBoKyrrHocTu npoiKlfTblX leT nMI Bceil 06cleJOBaIlHo~1 rpynshylTbl B Ka)IO-1 B03paCHIOM npOMCiltyTKC B aaIlIlOM XpOIIOJlOnPl eCshyKO neplfO]e nOJlYlfalOTCSl nYTeM COOTBeTCTBYIOlleii iOJlcplI~aUllll 06urlHhlX MeTOnos HalJeTHbI( p~UIOB
nOpHJIOK BblpoundHCJ1eIlHH COBOIYlTIIOCTI npOgtKHThiX nou Ha6molleshy
lIIeM JleT AJU Bceii r p ynnbT o6cneoOBaHHbrX 3a BCCb nepffOn HX
iKII3HH B B03paCTe CTaprue 15 neT npl1Se]JeH BblllIe (Ta6Jl 1 CTp 135)
ECJlH Fle06xoalTMO yqeCTb eme TOT JIll IiHoii POIIOJIOrHlleCKuii
nepon TO YCTaHasmlBaeTCH S03paCTHoe paCnpelleJiCHHe )l(el-llllHH Ha lIa~laJIO II KOlieu 3T01O neplJOlla ~ITO oOCTlraeTC5I COOTseTCTB)shy
IOlleH peoYKUHeii E03paCTTIOro pacnpe(CJleIHHr HanpltMep -lT06rx nOJ1~mTb 113 MaTeplfaJ10B 06CJ1t~aoBaHH5I 1956 r B03pacTHoe pacshynpeneJleHHe 118fHIoro KOIJlelTlfsa B 1940 r cJlenye-r nCpeJlBrfllyTb p~o n o B03pacTHolI lUl( aJ1C Ha 1U leT_ Korll tleCTBo rrpO)llThlX JleT
Jt-IH KalKnoro B03pacTHoro npoMCgtKYTtlta nOJlY4aeTcSl nYTeM nocJleshyAOBaTeJlbHoro cyMMHposaHHH 11aHllbiX 0 BCTynHslUHx B uaHHo~1 B(3pacTe B TOT ItJHI IHIOi XpOIlOJllrlllJeCKHii TIepnon II nmJ1elOBashyleJlblIOro BhPHlTaHH5I AaUI-lbIX 0 BblCTynHsllHIX H3 3Toro )Kf XPOllO
nOrHlJeCKOrO nepKona B oaHHOM B03paCTe DOSlCllInt TeXHUKY BblllHCJlCllliH CJ1CoYIOlllIHI npllMepOM B Ta6J1HUC 5a npI1Be~teHbI HClIICIeIITH J(JlIrrelbI-lOCTH nepHOlOa
Ha6mOlleHII51 no S03paCTHblM rpynna~1 J1l5T COBJKYnIIOCfH o6cJleshynosamlblX B 1956 r )JClIl1lHH (2802 4elOAela) no If(lCTHhl1 nepllo
131 no 1941 r 1941 - 19middot15 rr bull 1946-1956 rr BblLJI-ICIleHHH nposhy113BcaeHhl C1CaYIOUIIfM o6pa30M B rparpax 2 4 It G nallo pacrrpEue shyJIC~II1P Bcell COBOKvnHOCTIi o6c~eJlOBaHllblx iKelfllnH no BOJpacl v na HallaTlO lltaiKuoro llaCrHOrO nerHlOJ1a COOTBeTcTBYOIllIle lltela
W)JlY1leHbl nYTCM peoyKIlllH B03paCTlIOrO pacnpe1eJleHlISl Ha MO ]lellT OOcleJlOB3IlHH (rroqa 6) Tal lU1f1 B03pacTlloro pacnpe-leshy
1eIHI5T Ad 1941 r (rpacpa 2) penYlltlrr51 npOH3SE1eHa H3 15 ller
lHl paClipcnCJ1elIliSl Ha 1946 r (rparplt1 4) - 1C1 10 leT B rpacpax 3 5 H 7 nplIBeneHbl aerIHllHlllJ npOiKHTWX neT no OTshy
aeJllgtlIb11 B03paCTHblM npOMeKYTKaM no KaKLlOIY tlaCT~oMy neshy
pilon) BW411cleHIHI 3TIIX BCJlHllfH npOlI3seueHbl cIeAYIOllHlI oGshypa30TII
141
----
Ta6nllL35
PacnmiddotpellenCHHe pOlKJeHHH no BoapacTy amplaTep B MOMeHT POllOB
(o6c~eJoDaIlHe 1955 r )
B()j (laCT gtta lmiddotcpgt1 B MOM ellT pltJI101
B03p3CT ~nTcpll I o ~o ellT 06celloo31I11A
18 I 19 I 20 I 21 I 22 23 I 24 I 8 T JI
I 18 1955 19 1I 20 -2-1 shy21 1 3 1 shy22 I 1 1
4 -6-23 2 3 1 1 2 -2-~24 3
1 225 2 2 5 7
26 1 I 2 4 5 27 2 3 1 2 l 2
2R 1945 1 2 4 3 2 4 3
29 lt 3 2 I 2 41+130 L 5 1 3 1
- 7- 331 4 2 3 4 -2-132 2 3 5 2 5
6 -31 433 3 4 6 -3-34 2 3 5 5 4
35 3 4 7 3 4 7 36 2 3 6 l ) 5 37 2 j I 4 7 a If
33 1935 3 4 2 8 5 4
39 5 4 3 4 4 7I 6 3 8 (jJO -1- 5
--3shy41 2 2 1 5 7 3 3 42 4 6 - 3- 5 4 3
3 -2-143 2 1 4 3 11
44 3 2 () 4middot 6 - 2- 5 - 8shy45 3 l 7 4 4
46 5 4 3 3 5 6
47 5 5 1 3 4 48 2 7 2 5 ~ l
49 J 6 R C 5 l (j50 II CTapwe fi 4 8 9 7 9
Bcero pOlKneHHii 37 77 118 lIt 111 104 IIIl
B TOM IBcne no uepliOnaM
1945-1954 rr 7 18 23 21 26 32 34 1935--194+ rr 12 32 4J 46 47 42 50
110 1935 r 18 2fi 52 44 37 29 32
142
llJJ5I laCToro neplloll3 AO 1941 r (lpacpa 3) IHCJlO HaGmolleH HblX (np0gtKHTblX) JleT H s03pacTe 15 JleT 04eSHllHO paBHO tlllCJlY Bcex 2802 o6cJlellOSaHHblx )KeHtUMH 3a BbIeTOM 12middot~6 IKelJtUI-Hl He llOCnrrWHX K IWHlIY 3Toro lJaCTllOrO nepH01Ia 15 JleT T e 1556
BeJllFIIIHbl llMI B03pacroB 16 17 18 H T Jl nOJlY4eHbI nYTeM rrOCJleJlOBaTeJlbHOrO Bbl4HTaHHSI raquoltElltUHH HaXOllHBlllHXCSI K KOHUY nepHOJla B npeJlblJlYlUeH B03pacTHo~i rpynne (TaK )lJHI 16 JleT
1406 = 1556-150 DJHI 17 J1er 1359 = 1406-47 H T Jl) )lrUI 43CTIOro IlcpHoDa 1941-l945 fT (rpacenta 5) LIlII~10 HCl6
JlIOJleUllbIX (np0gtKWrbrx) JleT B B03pacTe 15 fleT OleSHJllO paBHo qHCJlY gtKeHlliHH sCTynJlBwHx B 3TOT nepHOa IO J]OCTIIgtKeIHlH ]5 neT (l2-l6) 3a BbllleTOM emIHIH He Il0CHlrWHX 3Toro B03paCTa JlO 1946 r (75 J ) MCKOMoe 1HCJ10 paBHO pa3fIOCTIl nllX lIHCeJl T e
1246-751 = 495 T 6 J1 11 L a 5a
HCIHCJlelllle npOJl(HTblX noll tlaonIOJleHlleM 1eT Anll Reeti rpynobl lIIeHutHH no neptO)laM
ItUI10 nposhyIt1J1hlyen 1I 0U
1Ifno lUCO lI uOICA shyIu( lUPfnpClICshy IUlllpCt shyPocnPClC middot npo~nn npOlKTbIX tHle Jle1JlIUUC IlOJlltaUlIOmiddot 11UHc1 CIUlCn[JoaIIThl~ 1I0JllliI61t10 Uil eeL)fCUHUIII
)KCUUUIll nolellHCMOJ 113611lt- ~ltellll(11I1D03p~C1 ACHlH leT nCpH OJl AO ACIlIlt4 neT no oOIn~T) 1t l 33
no BOIshy lIotflurTY Jtl 19~6 IOMCIITU JlO I ~middotI I r
rlOt middot middotY 1t3 lit 1J51i r1J11110 lhu r 1955 rr oIiCl1cIIlt)shy1911 r (Itw rr OnltlUI (1J5I r)
I 7 86~ 3 41
751 751
) 2-16 -no 15 31 2A02) 16 495155615 150 aq 27719164middot1998)6 140047
976 2733 18
75135y 1M aVti17 72 1Jd l79 ~65839241) f512S7
Y4671 25-1038 353) 211HI 42 135 II T ~ 1 T a
21 150 II T lI20 II T n
~3middot17I 7n72 84
22 46
24 23
80-42 )96tl T 1125 98
27 21)
7R 85
29 28
38 30 150 31 47 32 72 33 46 34 42
11 T bull u II T Jl t t
Bcero Q
BemfllHHbl llJlH B03paC10B 16 17 18 1I T lI nOJIytleHbl CJleJlYshyIOlUliM 06pa30M npH6aRJleHbl 1Ilcna )f(eflLLIH1J HaXOllHBWHXC5I K HaLIaJlY nepnoJJa B npeAblllytUej B03paCTHoii npynne (rpacpa 2) 11
143
- -- ---
PaCnpelleJlelllle raquolteI-lllJHII no B03pacry B lOlgtleUT 06C~leLlOBai1l1H II B03paCTY BCT)nJ1eHH5I B 6paK I1Jlli npeKparneHHH 6paKa KdK yKashy3aHO Bhlwe LlaeT B03MOiKHOCTb pacnp el1e1HTb HX no xpOHOnOrHleshyClmM nepHonaM (LlHarOHaJ1blIbiM JTHHHflM I130Xp0l(nl) llJUr KaiK shy
loro B03paCTa nOrOlHO nOJlcqHThlBaeTen lHCJlO COCTOHBilHiX Ii 6pashyKe K KOIIUY nepHOLla (FlnlI ITO TO Me n epeWeJlWHX B COCTOHHHe 6paKa B cleJlYIOLUHii nepHOJl) TaK ~IHCJlO 23-JleTHHX COCTOHBillllX K 6paKe B 1945 r bull nOJTYllaeTC5J no ropH30HfaJlH B03paCTa 33 r Ol la ( Ha MOMeHT 06CJleIlOBaHHfI) rrYTeM CyMIgtIYI[l oaaHIUI BCryf1RBWRX B 6paK no 1945 r H BbllIITaHHH CJIYllaes np eIltpaLUCHH5I 6paKa
18 = 2+ 4 I 5 5 middotH~- 1
LfHCJ1a npoMHTblX leT B OpatJHOM COCTOHHIlI1 nJlSl OT)lenbHbI X
XpOH0J10rH4eCKHx nepHOJlOB (CM Ta6n 6a) orrpeJlenHIOTC5I cneJly shyIO[UHM 06pa30M rroroaI1O I1MI Karaquoltnoro B03pacTa nOCJlenOBaTeJ1bshy110 CYMMIlPYIOTC5I nepeweLltIllle B COCT05HlIe 6pallta T13 npeiJbICyweshyro nepHOla ( r pacpa 2) H BCTymwwHe B GpaK B llaHHOM B03pacTe If
B naHHOM nepnOl1e (rpacpa 3) Ii nOCJ1eJlOBaTeJlbIlO BblllHTalOTCH Dce npeKpanlBWlle 6paK (rpacpa 4) H nepeXOJl5IllJHe B COCTOfllHIC 6paKa B cJ1enYIOwuH n epHOlt (rpacpa 5) Tallt 4liCIJO np0gtKHTbIX OpalHblX JleT B B03pacre 19 J1eT I1J1H liIepHona 1945-1954 rr paBlfo
84= 38+2+ 48- 1- 3
JlSI 22 TIeT
160 = 154 + 6+18- 3-15 H T i
T a 6 Jl II [I a 6a
HCIIICJleIlHe 6paIHoro nepHOJla (lHCna npOlKHTblX neT) J1nJl xpOHOnOrlfeCKOrO nepHOJla
QI(10 iKe lllIllIH 1I lIen n n PO)lt)11LfHeno +C IIlL( HlI lJucno 011 11 11111TO c H t B 6PU 4 110 M BCTynHulIlI II li1l 1H
Aalllloro BlnpaCT(I Jl3 UH OI O UO IpH CTa B n~plloJll COllOSl HlIII 8 LaJt~ p CKpJ shytOCTOSlUIllH 8 C()CTCl 5I BllJItX 9BIIJ p nCT (IWi 1111 r ) T il BllHt X 110 B03P KTC
(ipnKc lin 11118110 liPKC K KOIII Iu n tJIIIIUU 6pnllt H ncpllo middot ne po)1 (1945 r ) lIe l a (K l middot i~ 1 ) (1~IS- 1 9fimiddot1 r r)BO p UCl C
-Ii I 51 2 middot1
_18 -38 - 3 19 12 ~tl 3 84
() 20 1)11 1J9 f)21 2 15425 6
22 18 3 156 160 23 6 17IS 16 161 2middot1 l 2012 10 139
U T jI
1-[
BbiGTeHbl HaXOlI1BWneCn B Toil Ie B03paCTIlOH rpynlle Ha KOHel( 11epHOJla (rpacenta 4)
TaK 449 = 495+ 150- 196 398 = 449 + 47- 98 11 T JI
llJU qaCTHOro nepJoIona 1946-1955 rr (rpacpa 7) BeJllollfHHbl QJTH B03pacToB 16 17 18 If T 11 1l0JT)IeHbl anaJlOrHlIHO naUHblM ilJH nepnola 194 L- [945 rr
TaK 916=751 + 196- 31 976 = 916+98- 38 R T 11 Cnoc06 nOJl)Ie lfH5I Ilall ll bl X )lJl51 Bcero nepHona B ueJlOM (lpashy
ltJa 8) IlOfICneH Bhlwe npHBeLleM erne OllHlI npllMcp fI pllMeHeHIIH MeTOl1a H30XpOll I1JHl
Bb[~IHCJleHHH no n epHOl1aM IIPOlHTbIX 6pa rlIfblx JTeT PaClteT nposhyH3BOLlHTCH no AallRblJI1 pacnpel1eJTeHH5 IeHlLUB no B03paCTY B MOshyMeHT o6CJTelOBaHHH (1956 r) H no B03pacTY scrynrleHHH B 6paK 1-1 ero npel(parneHHH (Ta61J 6)
T a 6 Jl II II a 6
PacnpeAeneHHe 06cneJ(onaHI1b1x no B03pacTY nCTynneHHII H OpeKpalleJlHSI 6paxa
B(J3pa CT B MOICIiT oc rynnclIHR A (ipallt MII npC Kp3utCIIIIR Opa lw
Bf) 3K3CT 91()1 CllT I ltI r~CA()fJIJIfIiSl II I I I I IIS 19 ~n n 22 21 2middot1 II T JI
18 1955 19 J I shy-ashy20 1 t
VI
21 J 2 I 2 22 6 -4 1 5 TIl I 23 5 5 4 3 -=-1
324 6 7 2 2 1 21 I---= 25 4 4 5 32 )
26 5 7 7 j 2 2 2 17 4 ti 7 G 2 32 28 1945 2 j 2 1 29 1 ) 5 1 2(2 30 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 12 31 21 --~ I I 1 2 1 2
- 1-132 2 3 2 1 12 33 2 -1 5 5 1 ---3-1_1 34 3 4 -tl I 2 11) 1_1_
It T 11
fj 194r)-I)) ( 11
tl CTYIIIIIO B 6paK 38 IS middot19 21 J8 Hi ll
flPCK P iITIf 1(l 6pt K 2 1 Ii
1 Iml u ihTYI11UJlUIi X H 0lllli ylhOl~oI h IIHmiddotHrrc1c IUUI ilptM11IHIIIII UnC1C
J~J
C OC TORBWHC II 6pIIc
110 linI1915 r
2 5 6 G
18 12
[( T I
19Sr
3 6 6
15 17 20 16 29 21 I 15 1 1 11 8
19 13
f[ 1 L
rlpi - B atltmiddot
4 HccneAoBaHHe CBH3K AeMorpa$HQeCKHX npo~eccoB C APyrHMH SlBneHHSlMH
nepeA HccneuOBaTene 1acTO BCTae-r 3alla4a xapaKTepnCTHKI
JlerwrpaqI14eCKHX npoueccoB B CBgtl3H C HEKOTOPbIMH BagtKltblMrt
C06blTl51lH Il nepeMefa ~111 B )IH13HU lltonJleKTlIBa II OTJlCJlbHOrO J1 Hshy
Ila TaKoBo nanpurep H3YleHlle pO)KIlaeMOCTII JeTclltoii olepTshyHOCHI B CBH311 C pU3RIltIJl5IMlI B TpYlle MaTep (npoMblwfleHluuk
HRII HenpOMbIWleIIUblii) 1ltIrJ11 LLHeM Hml (fCYTCTBHeM 3amIT tiK KYshy
CTapllblM npO~lbICJlOr B KpeCTb5lHCKlIX CelMIX ncpeCeJlCHl-leM B HO
Bble )KIIJ1I1Ula H l iTO B CBoe BpeM5I 6b1rlO oco6emIO BaXltHO nCTynshyleHIleM B KO1JleKTIIBIOe X035l1IcTBO C aKKilHMaTII3aUlleii npB nepeshy
ceneHlIfI B ApKTHKY B BblCOlltoropHble paiiollbi II T bull t OGblllllO B
11 IIX c~yqaSIX InYlfellue BpoundleTCSI nYTeM conOCTaB1elllHI JtBYX KOJIshy
leKTrIBOB 06J1analOI1lIlX (( lie 061aaaIOlllIH laIlFlWM npR3H8KOM ()aHaKO npaKTlltIeCllI lIeB0310gtKHO nOlblCKaTb Ko1rJeKTIIBbl lOCT8shy
TOlIfO OJlIIOpOQHhle BO nce~1 OCTaJlbIlOM II 3TO eCTeCTBellllO 3aTshy
PY)lHfleT 3allltlllY IIcCnClOBClHIf51 If HepellKO uCJlaeT ee lIepa3pCllIIIshy
oIoii Tallt HanplfMep npB conOCTaBJleHllH llByX KOJlJ1eKTIISOBshy
gtKlmylllllx B 1I0BbiX lolax H )OiBYUlIiX B CTapLIX llOM8X - nml IICshy
crlenOBaHIIH BJ1IWHII51 iKlUlIllllHblX YCJlOBlIii lla pmK)laeMOCTb UJIH
lleTCKYIO CMepmOCTb lJpe3Bbl l JaiiHO TpYliHO rrCK~IOIlITb BIJII5IHIH~ f03paCTllblX CounaJlbHomiddot6blTOBblX 11 llpyrHx pa3111LJII~i MegtKlY Te-I npli allaMHeCTlI4eClltO1 ~leTOlle B03~IOgtKHOCTb o6pa30BalllHl 13 aaHshy
1I0ii reHepaJlbHOii COBQKynHocTII LIZCTHbiX COBOIltYIlHOCTeir no llaHshy
11O1Y npOll3BonbHO BbI6pallliOY npl13HaKY (HanpllMep nepeceneshy
lTle B HOBbie )lOMa) o6eurocneLJ HBaeT llOCTaTOlJHYIO oanopoaI-lOCTb
)TIIX LJaCTllbiX COBOIltynHocTeti B OCTaJlbHblX OHlOwellllfiX H nprrJ18er
nonylJ8(~lbTM p(3)~bTaTa1 HeoUxoaHMYIO T04HOCTb 3aCCb BCCJleshy
nOBalnle BelleTca KaK UbI B yC~OBHI1X LtHCTOrO 3KCneplllleHTltI Tn 0 VCJlOBIHII OllblTa BIlt1101laCTC51 JlIIOO HCIltJlI0lJaeTCSl lleiicTBHe Toro
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AHalH1eCTHIeCKUH MeTO] C ycrrexoM npH~leHHJlC5I TaK1Ke np H 113Yl leIlTlII CltlHllTa p HblX 110CJlenCI BH~i BOllHbI (KpbIM) npH H3ytlemm nereCeJleHIHI B YCJlOBIHIX KpaHHero Cesepa (HHCTlHYT rI1rI1eHbI AMI-l CCCP) nJl5I nonY4eHHH oQIlJei-i xapaKTep HCTHKH JlellOrpashycPlIlfeCIUlX npoueccoB a TalOKe C ueJlblO KOImiddottTPOJlH nOJlIIOTbI H DOshycToBepHocTII nallllblX 0CPUUl-IaJlbHOH CTaTnCTHKH 3aKaBKa3b5I (3KCshynCDHUlIOIJllOe 06CJlellOnallfie M HcTIlTYTa opramnauHH 311paBooxpa shyHe~Jli51 H HCnOpmr vlelHUHHbI HM H A CeMail1Ko)
B pa3pa6oTKe allaMHECTH-leCKOrO MeTO[la H B npOBeJleH1l 1I 3KCshynellHUHOHHbtX 11 HllblX oGcneJ]oBaHHii npHHlIMano yqacTHe 3HatJHshyreJlbHOe tfHCJlO n a Yllnbl X pa6oTHHKOB CCCP
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OIHOBHble HCTOlIHlKH no MeTonOJlOrltleCKIlM BonpocaM)
I n e K C U c CT3Tbn lTo TeopHH CT3TIICTltKIt lIaCeJIellllSl l TeopnIl npaBCTshyBCllltOI CT3THCHIKII 1 fp3qJlIlecKII~1 MeTOA HCCJleAOB3UHSl CMepT1l0Cni II noshyIHlllOK BblmlpaHIISl B nepeaOAeuro nOA peA Ll y rrpOBa Cn6 1906
2 13 a T K II C r A Ol[epKII 110 CTaTHCTIIIeCKOIi MeToaOJtOrllll I K Bonpocy MeTOLlOJlOrtlll IICH1c~eRIHI Cpe)lHerO B03pac-ra 11 MeTOLl H30Xpml Ill H3YleHue 11 10110[lIlTOCTII IV y13Y l lelHle CMCPTHOCTII V feOMeTplll[eCl(He r pacjJuKIl naceshyJI(IIUS VI AnaMHCCTIIIeC)HH leTO B AeMorpaClIlH laquoCOUB3J1bH3n rHrllella~ N 19 1928 ~2 2-3 12-13 N94 (14) 1928
3 13 a T Ilt II C r A K MeTonOJlOnlH 1t3YIJC8Hff BJHHIIIHl lIpocjJCCCl1l 113 nposhyIf~ BonHTe1bHylO cjJYHKlJUlO )KemllIIHbl laquofmUeHa 6C3onaCHoCTb It naTOnOrHH rpyn3 N2 2 M 1930
4 13 0 1I p C K 11 if A 51 It ill Ywe p H B n n Lle~lOrpacjJlJIleCKall CT3T11shyCTHKa M 1955
5 B bt C T P 0 B a B A LlocToeepHoCTb AamrblX nOJlylae~tblx alla~HleCTil-4(CKllM MeTonOM ABTopccjJepaT J1llccepTaUHH M 1954
6 Be H II 6 e p r B MeronIlKa H TeIIIlKa CT3TliCTHKU B nplIJlogtKellllH couliallbllOi 6lonortll1 nepeBoll nOll pCLl A B MOJIhKOB3 M 1928
7 My x 3 M C1 L Sl pO B ltIgt f K Bonpocy 06 113Y l lCIIlIIl BOCnpOl-l3BO1CtBa IIOKOMIlHJI K33alfcK~rit Mell iKypH3n 11 6 1931
8 My x a M e Jl blip 0 B (Igt r K Bonpocy 06 1I3YIJClIliH nepCgtF111J3eMOCTif B3poclloro TaTapCKoro 113CCJlelillfl Ka3 ~ICl livpH3n Ka3aH 1930
9 My x a 1 ell blip 0 B ltI) r OnblT 1l3Yle1l1lSl nJlOJlOllHTOlTIi gtKCtlWHIlbtshyTaTapKH 1I nepe)KUBaeMOCTll ee peOCHI3 K33 Men )KypHal Ka3a1lEo 1930
10 n a C B C K If ii B B II 51 x 0 H T O B A n a npliMelleHlfli aHaMlICCTlllemiddot CKoro MtTOla B 1eMOrp3cjJIlIl laquoT pYllLJ LleorpacjJllleCKOro l1UCflITYTa AKaae1I111 HayK CCCPraquo T I 1933
I I c 11 II K e B H LJ r n I fclICJleHlle cpeililcro B03paCT1J IIClcrynneHliH 1l[l1l3shyHllKa 110 Kllel11ltllllblM llerllOJl1M rnrn lna 11 3nl11C~1ItworH5Iraquo 1Ii III 1927
152
12 C II H Ii e B 11 q r n BOJloroncKaSl KpCcTb5lHKa u ee peIJelloK M 1929 13 Til MME C OmgtT 13YleIlHSI eCteCTBeliBOro llB10KeBIUI uacelleHIHI B
KI IUI 1 3Ka x T awKellT 1933 14 T If M I E C OnbtT c31l1ITapBo-cT3TlICTIIQCCKOrO UCClcuon3Hllll DnollO-
IITOCTIl TawlCclTT 1936 15 c 0 n T bI C C K I Ii E 11 K nonpocy 0 rtpl1Meliellll1t aHaMHeCTllltteCKoro
~I oaa [l c3I1HTapHo-cTaTlICTIlleCKHX HCCJlenOBalllHIX cr~lIueL1a II caHHTapHlI~ N 3 1949
16 C T P Y M H IT H II C r np06J1eMloi 3KOHOMIIKII TpyJJa [JI V n p06J1(Ma
pll K1l3eMOCTlI B pa60Qerf ceMbe M 1957 17 ill 0 pO ( 0 BaA A MCToLlHKa 1I3)1eHHSI nJlO)JOBlITOCTll qenOBeKa_
T alllKeHT 1935 18 A n s c I L An lhe rate of morlality of early period of life and t he other
~l~li s li cs of families L 1879 19 K nap p L D ie sterblichkeit in Sachsen leipzig 1869 20 K u C z i ns k y R The balance of barlhs an d deaths N J 1928 21 Wei 0 b erg W Die Kinder cler Tuberkulosen LeIpzig 1913
Tallt B rpacpe 5 BC IH LJHlI a )2 ll l-m 20 - l eTIIC lo o03 pac-f a l1 oJlY -l e l1 C1
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139
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K03centcentrUIHenTbf 06lleH rrJlOJQBUTOCTII (rpacpa 3) nO1y4eHul hpJ
TO~I )Je rrCCJlenOB~lI1HJl
DpOU3BeneHIl5T laHHblX rpacjgt 2 II 3 nalOT no llt3gtKJ1oii B03paCTshyHoii rpynne BeJIIl4HHY o)JlfJaelblX pOgtKleHII~i (rpacjgta 4) H fiX CYMshyMa 2797 Bblpa)faeT o)JIHtaeurolOC KOMI4CCTBO po)aefllrir OT Bcero noshylOJlCIH1~ )eIlWHT T c fIllCleHHOCTb reHepaUHlT BocnpoH3scnCHshy
hOll HaLJaJlbHhI~1 nOKOI(lle~1 lellllITlmiddot rrpli taIlHOM nOp5lnKe nepeshy
gtKIIBaHlIH
COOTI-lOllIellllC ~JIlCla POJlIIAUlllXCH MalhlJHKOB H oCBOlfeK no naHshy[(b1~1 aBTopa COCTaBJlHlO 1045 1000 OTCIOna lI3LJaJlbliaH lIllCJleIl shy
HOCTb Bcera nOKOJlCHIIH npHH51T~1 B 2045
CTleJoBaTeTbHo 1lt03cprp1UnellT BonpotI3floncTBa OPYTTO paBeH
2717 _Rb = ~o15= l 3r
I03rpcjgtlfuneliT BocnpoH3BoacTsa lIeno
_ 2lt)7 _) IRII - IOOU - _R
2 MeTO)l 1t30XPOH 2
Dpl-I rrpOBCJIeIlJlI aHallleerH4eCKlIX IICClenOB3mni JlCMorpacentnshyleCKne lTpOUeCCbl MoryT 6JITb 13Ytellb perpOCnelltTIlBHO no OTshyJefbHbIM HHTepeCYIOllII~1 HccnenOB3Te1H XpOHO10rtflJeCI(lJM n(-p~loshy
aai TaK B03MO)JHO cpaBIIHTeJlbHOe H3y~el--me pOJKIae10CTH
cepTHOCTIi npoueCC05 Bocnp01l3BonCTS3 rrace1ellllH 3a neplIOJlh1 10peSOJ1l0UHOIHLlir (ao 19 18 r ) H nOCJlEpeBOJIlOUHOHHblii 3a uoshyBoeHHblii (1918-19middot10) II 1l0CJleBOeffliJlj H 3a 6oec lleTa~bHble XpoHO10rlf1-leCIltlC nepollhl (lla nplnlep 5- 1O-1eTH lie II T n) 3TO ooecne4HBaeTC51 npmleleHlIEM MeTona 1I30XPOf OCHOBalIIIOlO na pacnpeleJleHlI1 cooTBer crByrOllI1X naHHblX B TaK Ha3hTSaelblX Ta6shy
J1Tuax Tpex 1I3MepeliHii
I 06wenpIIHflTIJC B I ac rOllwee apeln GpyTTO 11 flerro - 1OjJrVIIllIfCHTbI BocnrOIf3BOnCTB3 IICIIIIC111101Cfl IICCKOJlbKO THialle II o603I1a IIBTOT I) 6pYTTOshyKOltjJijllTUlICIiT (B3lOIlOii rpy6blii nOKa3aTC~b) BOCrrpOll31l01lCTila - 4IC10 lC60shyIltK POC1ClillbIX Il qClIlC~1 OJ1I1Oli (llllllIfIiOli 3a uel nJlO)l06HTblil nepHOD cc WiIlH II 2) neTTo-Ko3cjJltjlHlHleHT (OtIllWlHHblf DOK33aTCb aOCllpOIl31l0ilCTB3 mlla3)Tlt1[ IIIICToro t ocnpo1l3BocTlla) - TO iKe COOTH OWeHlli MBTtpeii Ii l104Cshypdi L10 C YTO~I j1a3~H pOI3 c~lepTH(ICTII gtKClIIlIIIH B B03pacTc 10 50 JleT (Kolla 11J10JlODIiTOro lleplIOJla KIL3HI ilCllllllIllW) OrpaKellHWX B TaOJIIIllaX CMCPTtIOCTI )h(IICKOro 113tCJICllliR J(TOHIKY BWIflC tellust 3TlIX 1I0Ka1aTeeii eM I) A 51 [j 0 $I pc K II ii Kypc1e~lOrpal~IIleCloli e1-aTIiCTIIhIImiddot M 1945 eTp 84- 90 2) A 5I [) 0 SI P ( I II II II n n III Y III e p 11 It laquolJeMorpacjJllqc(laR CTaTHCTllIlt8 M 1955 erp 290---3UO A M_ J e p Ilt 0 11 laquoJlc~OrJlacjJlIllecKaR CTaTIICTIIKaraquo 1950 eTp l ui [G6 _ Ped
2 l M TllOI( CTp 22 c(i(lPHIIK1
1middot0
Ta6J11lua 5 nOKa3blBal0llafl pacnpelleJlCHlle pO)lJleIlIIH flO B03shypacTY )eHllHR B MOMellT o6CJleIoBamHI (nowegtKalllCe) il no IIX
B03paCTY B MOfeIlT P021nellllH peGeHllta (cKa3yeMoe) 11aeT B03shyMOiKHOCTb pacnpeneJlNIIHI ITO COOTBeTCTBYIOUlIIM oloIarOHaJlflM Tex Ie C06h1TIIH no XpOIIOJlOrHlJeC[lIM llaTa~1 To iKe B CJ1Y4ae pacnpcshy
nCJ1elilHl yMepwHx no taTe POgtIlt)JCHlm II B03paCTY CMepTIl H T )I
3m n~larOllaJlH HOCHT na3BaHHC 1130XpOI (JIeKcHc-KHanrr) T c J111 lTJlIl COelIlIl5IOWIIX TOllKII c06bITmi OJlIl1aKOBOro BpeMeHloI MOgtKshy110 rOBopllTb He TOJlblW 06 H30XpOlax MIHH~X HO II 06 H30XpOH
HbX nJlOwanHX (lf30XpOHHbIX nOJllHOHax) orpalllllleHHbIx oBYfH H30xpoHa MI1 nooctteTbI no 1oI30xpoHaM no l30XpOllllblllt nOllHroshy
113M naIOT pacnpenerrCIIle OCHOBHoil cOBoKynIlOCTl (pOgtKJ1eHni-i CMcpTeii II T a) no COOTBeTCTBYIOWHM XpOIlOJlOrH4eCI-IM neposhy
ua1 COBoKyrrHocTu npoiKlfTblX leT nMI Bceil 06cleJOBaIlHo~1 rpynshylTbl B Ka)IO-1 B03paCHIOM npOMCiltyTKC B aaIlIlOM XpOIIOJlOnPl eCshyKO neplfO]e nOJlYlfalOTCSl nYTeM COOTBeTCTBYIOlleii iOJlcplI~aUllll 06urlHhlX MeTOnos HalJeTHbI( p~UIOB
nOpHJIOK BblpoundHCJ1eIlHH COBOIYlTIIOCTI npOgtKHThiX nou Ha6molleshy
lIIeM JleT AJU Bceii r p ynnbT o6cneoOBaHHbrX 3a BCCb nepffOn HX
iKII3HH B B03paCTe CTaprue 15 neT npl1Se]JeH BblllIe (Ta6Jl 1 CTp 135)
ECJlH Fle06xoalTMO yqeCTb eme TOT JIll IiHoii POIIOJIOrHlleCKuii
nepon TO YCTaHasmlBaeTCH S03paCTHoe paCnpelleJiCHHe )l(el-llllHH Ha lIa~laJIO II KOlieu 3T01O neplJOlla ~ITO oOCTlraeTC5I COOTseTCTB)shy
IOlleH peoYKUHeii E03paCTTIOro pacnpe(CJleIHHr HanpltMep -lT06rx nOJ1~mTb 113 MaTeplfaJ10B 06CJ1t~aoBaHH5I 1956 r B03pacTHoe pacshynpeneJleHHe 118fHIoro KOIJlelTlfsa B 1940 r cJlenye-r nCpeJlBrfllyTb p~o n o B03pacTHolI lUl( aJ1C Ha 1U leT_ Korll tleCTBo rrpO)llThlX JleT
Jt-IH KalKnoro B03pacTHoro npoMCgtKYTtlta nOJlY4aeTcSl nYTeM nocJleshyAOBaTeJlbHoro cyMMHposaHHH 11aHllbiX 0 BCTynHslUHx B uaHHo~1 B(3pacTe B TOT ItJHI IHIOi XpOIlOJllrlllJeCKHii TIepnon II nmJ1elOBashyleJlblIOro BhPHlTaHH5I AaUI-lbIX 0 BblCTynHsllHIX H3 3Toro )Kf XPOllO
nOrHlJeCKOrO nepKona B oaHHOM B03paCTe DOSlCllInt TeXHUKY BblllHCJlCllliH CJ1CoYIOlllIHI npllMepOM B Ta6J1HUC 5a npI1Be~teHbI HClIICIeIITH J(JlIrrelbI-lOCTH nepHOlOa
Ha6mOlleHII51 no S03paCTHblM rpynna~1 J1l5T COBJKYnIIOCfH o6cJleshynosamlblX B 1956 r )JClIl1lHH (2802 4elOAela) no If(lCTHhl1 nepllo
131 no 1941 r 1941 - 19middot15 rr bull 1946-1956 rr BblLJI-ICIleHHH nposhy113BcaeHhl C1CaYIOUIIfM o6pa30M B rparpax 2 4 It G nallo pacrrpEue shyJIC~II1P Bcell COBOKvnHOCTIi o6c~eJlOBaHllblx iKelfllnH no BOJpacl v na HallaTlO lltaiKuoro llaCrHOrO nerHlOJ1a COOTBeTcTBYOIllIle lltela
W)JlY1leHbl nYTCM peoyKIlllH B03paCTlIOrO pacnpe1eJleHlISl Ha MO ]lellT OOcleJlOB3IlHH (rroqa 6) Tal lU1f1 B03pacTlloro pacnpe-leshy
1eIHI5T Ad 1941 r (rpacpa 2) penYlltlrr51 npOH3SE1eHa H3 15 ller
lHl paClipcnCJ1elIliSl Ha 1946 r (rparplt1 4) - 1C1 10 leT B rpacpax 3 5 H 7 nplIBeneHbl aerIHllHlllJ npOiKHTWX neT no OTshy
aeJllgtlIb11 B03paCTHblM npOMeKYTKaM no KaKLlOIY tlaCT~oMy neshy
pilon) BW411cleHIHI 3TIIX BCJlHllfH npOlI3seueHbl cIeAYIOllHlI oGshypa30TII
141
----
Ta6nllL35
PacnmiddotpellenCHHe pOlKJeHHH no BoapacTy amplaTep B MOMeHT POllOB
(o6c~eJoDaIlHe 1955 r )
B()j (laCT gtta lmiddotcpgt1 B MOM ellT pltJI101
B03p3CT ~nTcpll I o ~o ellT 06celloo31I11A
18 I 19 I 20 I 21 I 22 23 I 24 I 8 T JI
I 18 1955 19 1I 20 -2-1 shy21 1 3 1 shy22 I 1 1
4 -6-23 2 3 1 1 2 -2-~24 3
1 225 2 2 5 7
26 1 I 2 4 5 27 2 3 1 2 l 2
2R 1945 1 2 4 3 2 4 3
29 lt 3 2 I 2 41+130 L 5 1 3 1
- 7- 331 4 2 3 4 -2-132 2 3 5 2 5
6 -31 433 3 4 6 -3-34 2 3 5 5 4
35 3 4 7 3 4 7 36 2 3 6 l ) 5 37 2 j I 4 7 a If
33 1935 3 4 2 8 5 4
39 5 4 3 4 4 7I 6 3 8 (jJO -1- 5
--3shy41 2 2 1 5 7 3 3 42 4 6 - 3- 5 4 3
3 -2-143 2 1 4 3 11
44 3 2 () 4middot 6 - 2- 5 - 8shy45 3 l 7 4 4
46 5 4 3 3 5 6
47 5 5 1 3 4 48 2 7 2 5 ~ l
49 J 6 R C 5 l (j50 II CTapwe fi 4 8 9 7 9
Bcero pOlKneHHii 37 77 118 lIt 111 104 IIIl
B TOM IBcne no uepliOnaM
1945-1954 rr 7 18 23 21 26 32 34 1935--194+ rr 12 32 4J 46 47 42 50
110 1935 r 18 2fi 52 44 37 29 32
142
llJJ5I laCToro neplloll3 AO 1941 r (lpacpa 3) IHCJlO HaGmolleH HblX (np0gtKHTblX) JleT H s03pacTe 15 JleT 04eSHllHO paBHO tlllCJlY Bcex 2802 o6cJlellOSaHHblx )KeHtUMH 3a BbIeTOM 12middot~6 IKelJtUI-Hl He llOCnrrWHX K IWHlIY 3Toro lJaCTllOrO nepH01Ia 15 JleT T e 1556
BeJllFIIIHbl llMI B03pacroB 16 17 18 H T Jl nOJlY4eHbI nYTeM rrOCJleJlOBaTeJlbHOrO Bbl4HTaHHSI raquoltElltUHH HaXOllHBlllHXCSI K KOHUY nepHOJla B npeJlblJlYlUeH B03pacTHo~i rpynne (TaK )lJHI 16 JleT
1406 = 1556-150 DJHI 17 J1er 1359 = 1406-47 H T Jl) )lrUI 43CTIOro IlcpHoDa 1941-l945 fT (rpacenta 5) LIlII~10 HCl6
JlIOJleUllbIX (np0gtKWrbrx) JleT B B03pacTe 15 fleT OleSHJllO paBHo qHCJlY gtKeHlliHH sCTynJlBwHx B 3TOT nepHOa IO J]OCTIIgtKeIHlH ]5 neT (l2-l6) 3a BbllleTOM emIHIH He Il0CHlrWHX 3Toro B03paCTa JlO 1946 r (75 J ) MCKOMoe 1HCJ10 paBHO pa3fIOCTIl nllX lIHCeJl T e
1246-751 = 495 T 6 J1 11 L a 5a
HCIHCJlelllle npOJl(HTblX noll tlaonIOJleHlleM 1eT Anll Reeti rpynobl lIIeHutHH no neptO)laM
ItUI10 nposhyIt1J1hlyen 1I 0U
1Ifno lUCO lI uOICA shyIu( lUPfnpClICshy IUlllpCt shyPocnPClC middot npo~nn npOlKTbIX tHle Jle1JlIUUC IlOJlltaUlIOmiddot 11UHc1 CIUlCn[JoaIIThl~ 1I0JllliI61t10 Uil eeL)fCUHUIII
)KCUUUIll nolellHCMOJ 113611lt- ~ltellll(11I1D03p~C1 ACHlH leT nCpH OJl AO ACIlIlt4 neT no oOIn~T) 1t l 33
no BOIshy lIotflurTY Jtl 19~6 IOMCIITU JlO I ~middotI I r
rlOt middot middotY 1t3 lit 1J51i r1J11110 lhu r 1955 rr oIiCl1cIIlt)shy1911 r (Itw rr OnltlUI (1J5I r)
I 7 86~ 3 41
751 751
) 2-16 -no 15 31 2A02) 16 495155615 150 aq 27719164middot1998)6 140047
976 2733 18
75135y 1M aVti17 72 1Jd l79 ~65839241) f512S7
Y4671 25-1038 353) 211HI 42 135 II T ~ 1 T a
21 150 II T lI20 II T n
~3middot17I 7n72 84
22 46
24 23
80-42 )96tl T 1125 98
27 21)
7R 85
29 28
38 30 150 31 47 32 72 33 46 34 42
11 T bull u II T Jl t t
Bcero Q
BemfllHHbl llJlH B03paC10B 16 17 18 1I T lI nOJIytleHbl CJleJlYshyIOlUliM 06pa30M npH6aRJleHbl 1Ilcna )f(eflLLIH1J HaXOllHBWHXC5I K HaLIaJlY nepnoJJa B npeAblllytUej B03paCTHoii npynne (rpacpa 2) 11
143
- -- ---
PaCnpelleJlelllle raquolteI-lllJHII no B03pacry B lOlgtleUT 06C~leLlOBai1l1H II B03paCTY BCT)nJ1eHH5I B 6paK I1Jlli npeKparneHHH 6paKa KdK yKashy3aHO Bhlwe LlaeT B03MOiKHOCTb pacnp el1e1HTb HX no xpOHOnOrHleshyClmM nepHonaM (LlHarOHaJ1blIbiM JTHHHflM I130Xp0l(nl) llJUr KaiK shy
loro B03paCTa nOrOlHO nOJlcqHThlBaeTen lHCJlO COCTOHBilHiX Ii 6pashyKe K KOIIUY nepHOLla (FlnlI ITO TO Me n epeWeJlWHX B COCTOHHHe 6paKa B cleJlYIOLUHii nepHOJl) TaK ~IHCJlO 23-JleTHHX COCTOHBillllX K 6paKe B 1945 r bull nOJTYllaeTC5J no ropH30HfaJlH B03paCTa 33 r Ol la ( Ha MOMeHT 06CJleIlOBaHHfI) rrYTeM CyMIgtIYI[l oaaHIUI BCryf1RBWRX B 6paK no 1945 r H BbllIITaHHH CJIYllaes np eIltpaLUCHH5I 6paKa
18 = 2+ 4 I 5 5 middotH~- 1
LfHCJ1a npoMHTblX leT B OpatJHOM COCTOHHIlI1 nJlSl OT)lenbHbI X
XpOH0J10rH4eCKHx nepHOJlOB (CM Ta6n 6a) orrpeJlenHIOTC5I cneJly shyIO[UHM 06pa30M rroroaI1O I1MI Karaquoltnoro B03pacTa nOCJlenOBaTeJ1bshy110 CYMMIlPYIOTC5I nepeweLltIllle B COCT05HlIe 6pallta T13 npeiJbICyweshyro nepHOla ( r pacpa 2) H BCTymwwHe B GpaK B llaHHOM B03pacTe If
B naHHOM nepnOl1e (rpacpa 3) Ii nOCJ1eJlOBaTeJlbIlO BblllHTalOTCH Dce npeKpanlBWlle 6paK (rpacpa 4) H nepeXOJl5IllJHe B COCTOfllHIC 6paKa B cJ1enYIOwuH n epHOlt (rpacpa 5) Tallt 4liCIJO np0gtKHTbIX OpalHblX JleT B B03pacre 19 J1eT I1J1H liIepHona 1945-1954 rr paBlfo
84= 38+2+ 48- 1- 3
JlSI 22 TIeT
160 = 154 + 6+18- 3-15 H T i
T a 6 Jl II [I a 6a
HCIIICJleIlHe 6paIHoro nepHOJla (lHCna npOlKHTblX neT) J1nJl xpOHOnOrlfeCKOrO nepHOJla
QI(10 iKe lllIllIH 1I lIen n n PO)lt)11LfHeno +C IIlL( HlI lJucno 011 11 11111TO c H t B 6PU 4 110 M BCTynHulIlI II li1l 1H
Aalllloro BlnpaCT(I Jl3 UH OI O UO IpH CTa B n~plloJll COllOSl HlIII 8 LaJt~ p CKpJ shytOCTOSlUIllH 8 C()CTCl 5I BllJItX 9BIIJ p nCT (IWi 1111 r ) T il BllHt X 110 B03P KTC
(ipnKc lin 11118110 liPKC K KOIII Iu n tJIIIIUU 6pnllt H ncpllo middot ne po)1 (1945 r ) lIe l a (K l middot i~ 1 ) (1~IS- 1 9fimiddot1 r r)BO p UCl C
-Ii I 51 2 middot1
_18 -38 - 3 19 12 ~tl 3 84
() 20 1)11 1J9 f)21 2 15425 6
22 18 3 156 160 23 6 17IS 16 161 2middot1 l 2012 10 139
U T jI
1-[
BbiGTeHbl HaXOlI1BWneCn B Toil Ie B03paCTIlOH rpynlle Ha KOHel( 11epHOJla (rpacenta 4)
TaK 449 = 495+ 150- 196 398 = 449 + 47- 98 11 T JI
llJU qaCTHOro nepJoIona 1946-1955 rr (rpacpa 7) BeJllollfHHbl QJTH B03pacToB 16 17 18 If T 11 1l0JT)IeHbl anaJlOrHlIHO naUHblM ilJH nepnola 194 L- [945 rr
TaK 916=751 + 196- 31 976 = 916+98- 38 R T 11 Cnoc06 nOJl)Ie lfH5I Ilall ll bl X )lJl51 Bcero nepHona B ueJlOM (lpashy
ltJa 8) IlOfICneH Bhlwe npHBeLleM erne OllHlI npllMcp fI pllMeHeHIIH MeTOl1a H30XpOll I1JHl
Bb[~IHCJleHHH no n epHOl1aM IIPOlHTbIX 6pa rlIfblx JTeT PaClteT nposhyH3BOLlHTCH no AallRblJI1 pacnpel1eJTeHH5 IeHlLUB no B03paCTY B MOshyMeHT o6CJTelOBaHHH (1956 r) H no B03pacTY scrynrleHHH B 6paK 1-1 ero npel(parneHHH (Ta61J 6)
T a 6 Jl II II a 6
PacnpeAeneHHe 06cneJ(onaHI1b1x no B03pacTY nCTynneHHII H OpeKpalleJlHSI 6paxa
B(J3pa CT B MOICIiT oc rynnclIHR A (ipallt MII npC Kp3utCIIIIR Opa lw
Bf) 3K3CT 91()1 CllT I ltI r~CA()fJIJIfIiSl II I I I I IIS 19 ~n n 22 21 2middot1 II T JI
18 1955 19 J I shy-ashy20 1 t
VI
21 J 2 I 2 22 6 -4 1 5 TIl I 23 5 5 4 3 -=-1
324 6 7 2 2 1 21 I---= 25 4 4 5 32 )
26 5 7 7 j 2 2 2 17 4 ti 7 G 2 32 28 1945 2 j 2 1 29 1 ) 5 1 2(2 30 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 12 31 21 --~ I I 1 2 1 2
- 1-132 2 3 2 1 12 33 2 -1 5 5 1 ---3-1_1 34 3 4 -tl I 2 11) 1_1_
It T 11
fj 194r)-I)) ( 11
tl CTYIIIIIO B 6paK 38 IS middot19 21 J8 Hi ll
flPCK P iITIf 1(l 6pt K 2 1 Ii
1 Iml u ihTYI11UJlUIi X H 0lllli ylhOl~oI h IIHmiddotHrrc1c IUUI ilptM11IHIIIII UnC1C
J~J
C OC TORBWHC II 6pIIc
110 linI1915 r
2 5 6 G
18 12
[( T I
19Sr
3 6 6
15 17 20 16 29 21 I 15 1 1 11 8
19 13
f[ 1 L
rlpi - B atltmiddot
4 HccneAoBaHHe CBH3K AeMorpa$HQeCKHX npo~eccoB C APyrHMH SlBneHHSlMH
nepeA HccneuOBaTene 1acTO BCTae-r 3alla4a xapaKTepnCTHKI
JlerwrpaqI14eCKHX npoueccoB B CBgtl3H C HEKOTOPbIMH BagtKltblMrt
C06blTl51lH Il nepeMefa ~111 B )IH13HU lltonJleKTlIBa II OTJlCJlbHOrO J1 Hshy
Ila TaKoBo nanpurep H3YleHlle pO)KIlaeMOCTII JeTclltoii olepTshyHOCHI B CBH311 C pU3RIltIJl5IMlI B TpYlle MaTep (npoMblwfleHluuk
HRII HenpOMbIWleIIUblii) 1ltIrJ11 LLHeM Hml (fCYTCTBHeM 3amIT tiK KYshy
CTapllblM npO~lbICJlOr B KpeCTb5lHCKlIX CelMIX ncpeCeJlCHl-leM B HO
Bble )KIIJ1I1Ula H l iTO B CBoe BpeM5I 6b1rlO oco6emIO BaXltHO nCTynshyleHIleM B KO1JleKTIIBIOe X035l1IcTBO C aKKilHMaTII3aUlleii npB nepeshy
ceneHlIfI B ApKTHKY B BblCOlltoropHble paiiollbi II T bull t OGblllllO B
11 IIX c~yqaSIX InYlfellue BpoundleTCSI nYTeM conOCTaB1elllHI JtBYX KOJIshy
leKTrIBOB 06J1analOI1lIlX (( lie 061aaaIOlllIH laIlFlWM npR3H8KOM ()aHaKO npaKTlltIeCllI lIeB0310gtKHO nOlblCKaTb Ko1rJeKTIIBbl lOCT8shy
TOlIfO OJlIIOpOQHhle BO nce~1 OCTaJlbIlOM II 3TO eCTeCTBellllO 3aTshy
PY)lHfleT 3allltlllY IIcCnClOBClHIf51 If HepellKO uCJlaeT ee lIepa3pCllIIIshy
oIoii Tallt HanplfMep npB conOCTaBJleHllH llByX KOJlJ1eKTIISOBshy
gtKlmylllllx B 1I0BbiX lolax H )OiBYUlIiX B CTapLIX llOM8X - nml IICshy
crlenOBaHIIH BJ1IWHII51 iKlUlIllllHblX YCJlOBlIii lla pmK)laeMOCTb UJIH
lleTCKYIO CMepmOCTb lJpe3Bbl l JaiiHO TpYliHO rrCK~IOIlITb BIJII5IHIH~ f03paCTllblX CounaJlbHomiddot6blTOBblX 11 llpyrHx pa3111LJII~i MegtKlY Te-I npli allaMHeCTlI4eClltO1 ~leTOlle B03~IOgtKHOCTb o6pa30BalllHl 13 aaHshy
1I0ii reHepaJlbHOii COBQKynHocTII LIZCTHbiX COBOIltYIlHOCTeir no llaHshy
11O1Y npOll3BonbHO BbI6pallliOY npl13HaKY (HanpllMep nepeceneshy
lTle B HOBbie )lOMa) o6eurocneLJ HBaeT llOCTaTOlJHYIO oanopoaI-lOCTb
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AHalH1eCTHIeCKUH MeTO] C ycrrexoM npH~leHHJlC5I TaK1Ke np H 113Yl leIlTlII CltlHllTa p HblX 110CJlenCI BH~i BOllHbI (KpbIM) npH H3ytlemm nereCeJleHIHI B YCJlOBIHIX KpaHHero Cesepa (HHCTlHYT rI1rI1eHbI AMI-l CCCP) nJl5I nonY4eHHH oQIlJei-i xapaKTep HCTHKH JlellOrpashycPlIlfeCIUlX npoueccoB a TalOKe C ueJlblO KOImiddottTPOJlH nOJlIIOTbI H DOshycToBepHocTII nallllblX 0CPUUl-IaJlbHOH CTaTnCTHKH 3aKaBKa3b5I (3KCshynCDHUlIOIJllOe 06CJlellOnallfie M HcTIlTYTa opramnauHH 311paBooxpa shyHe~Jli51 H HCnOpmr vlelHUHHbI HM H A CeMail1Ko)
B pa3pa6oTKe allaMHECTH-leCKOrO MeTO[la H B npOBeJleH1l 1I 3KCshynellHUHOHHbtX 11 HllblX oGcneJ]oBaHHii npHHlIMano yqacTHe 3HatJHshyreJlbHOe tfHCJlO n a Yllnbl X pa6oTHHKOB CCCP
YKA3ATEJlb JIMTEPATYPbl
OIHOBHble HCTOlIHlKH no MeTonOJlOrltleCKIlM BonpocaM)
I n e K C U c CT3Tbn lTo TeopHH CT3TIICTltKIt lIaCeJIellllSl l TeopnIl npaBCTshyBCllltOI CT3THCHIKII 1 fp3qJlIlecKII~1 MeTOA HCCJleAOB3UHSl CMepT1l0Cni II noshyIHlllOK BblmlpaHIISl B nepeaOAeuro nOA peA Ll y rrpOBa Cn6 1906
2 13 a T K II C r A Ol[epKII 110 CTaTHCTIIIeCKOIi MeToaOJtOrllll I K Bonpocy MeTOLlOJlOrtlll IICH1c~eRIHI Cpe)lHerO B03pac-ra 11 MeTOLl H30Xpml Ill H3YleHue 11 10110[lIlTOCTII IV y13Y l lelHle CMCPTHOCTII V feOMeTplll[eCl(He r pacjJuKIl naceshyJI(IIUS VI AnaMHCCTIIIeC)HH leTO B AeMorpaClIlH laquoCOUB3J1bH3n rHrllella~ N 19 1928 ~2 2-3 12-13 N94 (14) 1928
3 13 a T Ilt II C r A K MeTonOJlOnlH 1t3YIJC8Hff BJHHIIIHl lIpocjJCCCl1l 113 nposhyIf~ BonHTe1bHylO cjJYHKlJUlO )KemllIIHbl laquofmUeHa 6C3onaCHoCTb It naTOnOrHH rpyn3 N2 2 M 1930
4 13 0 1I p C K 11 if A 51 It ill Ywe p H B n n Lle~lOrpacjJlJIleCKall CT3T11shyCTHKa M 1955
5 B bt C T P 0 B a B A LlocToeepHoCTb AamrblX nOJlylae~tblx alla~HleCTil-4(CKllM MeTonOM ABTopccjJepaT J1llccepTaUHH M 1954
6 Be H II 6 e p r B MeronIlKa H TeIIIlKa CT3TliCTHKU B nplIJlogtKellllH couliallbllOi 6lonortll1 nepeBoll nOll pCLl A B MOJIhKOB3 M 1928
7 My x 3 M C1 L Sl pO B ltIgt f K Bonpocy 06 113Y l lCIIlIIl BOCnpOl-l3BO1CtBa IIOKOMIlHJI K33alfcK~rit Mell iKypH3n 11 6 1931
8 My x a M e Jl blip 0 B (Igt r K Bonpocy 06 1I3YIJClIliH nepCgtF111J3eMOCTif B3poclloro TaTapCKoro 113CCJlelillfl Ka3 ~ICl livpH3n Ka3aH 1930
9 My x a 1 ell blip 0 B ltI) r OnblT 1l3Yle1l1lSl nJlOJlOllHTOlTIi gtKCtlWHIlbtshyTaTapKH 1I nepe)KUBaeMOCTll ee peOCHI3 K33 Men )KypHal Ka3a1lEo 1930
10 n a C B C K If ii B B II 51 x 0 H T O B A n a npliMelleHlfli aHaMlICCTlllemiddot CKoro MtTOla B 1eMOrp3cjJIlIl laquoT pYllLJ LleorpacjJllleCKOro l1UCflITYTa AKaae1I111 HayK CCCPraquo T I 1933
I I c 11 II K e B H LJ r n I fclICJleHlle cpeililcro B03paCT1J IIClcrynneHliH 1l[l1l3shyHllKa 110 Kllel11ltllllblM llerllOJl1M rnrn lna 11 3nl11C~1ItworH5Iraquo 1Ii III 1927
152
12 C II H Ii e B 11 q r n BOJloroncKaSl KpCcTb5lHKa u ee peIJelloK M 1929 13 Til MME C OmgtT 13YleIlHSI eCteCTBeliBOro llB10KeBIUI uacelleHIHI B
KI IUI 1 3Ka x T awKellT 1933 14 T If M I E C OnbtT c31l1ITapBo-cT3TlICTIIQCCKOrO UCClcuon3Hllll DnollO-
IITOCTIl TawlCclTT 1936 15 c 0 n T bI C C K I Ii E 11 K nonpocy 0 rtpl1Meliellll1t aHaMHeCTllltteCKoro
~I oaa [l c3I1HTapHo-cTaTlICTIlleCKHX HCCJlenOBalllHIX cr~lIueL1a II caHHTapHlI~ N 3 1949
16 C T P Y M H IT H II C r np06J1eMloi 3KOHOMIIKII TpyJJa [JI V n p06J1(Ma
pll K1l3eMOCTlI B pa60Qerf ceMbe M 1957 17 ill 0 pO ( 0 BaA A MCToLlHKa 1I3)1eHHSI nJlO)JOBlITOCTll qenOBeKa_
T alllKeHT 1935 18 A n s c I L An lhe rate of morlality of early period of life and t he other
~l~li s li cs of families L 1879 19 K nap p L D ie sterblichkeit in Sachsen leipzig 1869 20 K u C z i ns k y R The balance of barlhs an d deaths N J 1928 21 Wei 0 b erg W Die Kinder cler Tuberkulosen LeIpzig 1913
Dpu ana MHeCn IIeCKIIX HCCJIenOUCllllUIX nJl51 nOJIyqellHf Ja IHIblC
o nepe)HBaeMOCTIl resp CMepTHOCTH B3pOCJIOro HaCeJIeHH5I npHMeshyl151eTC5I TaK Ha3bll3aeMbl H lleTOn laquo6paTbeB H ceCTepraquo (Geschwisshylermelhode)
06belltTOM Hccnenosa Il H51 51BJl5leTCft B3pOCJlOe I1aCeJleIHle-crapshy
we 15 JleT onpawllBaeMoe 06 HX 6paTb5lx H ceCTpax (naTa pOlKUeshylUI fl B03paCT nonlt HTI151 CMepTlI) Onpoc UOJDKell BeCTlICb T3K tITushy
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GpaTb5lMj[ H ceCTpaMIf pauce onpOllleHllblx nOJlYLlemlblfl T3KlUl
06pa30~1 M3Tepl1al n03BOJI5)eT lIa OCHOBe n OKa3allai1 np0631AOB Q
ceue II HX 6paTbSlX H cecrpax nOCTpOIITb npSlMhlM MeroAoM Ta6J1Hshy
UbI ClIepTHOCTH (nepegtKHBae~lOCTII) B3pocnoro HaCeJleHHf CTapUle J) JleT
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I paullueii nepeiKlIlIamm HMeeT n 3AeCb cyweCTBenlloe npaliTIlLieshy
clwe 311ltJ4ellHe OnblT 110llta3bfsaeT LITO aalltrbe 0 B03paCTe nmKIshy
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o pmKJaeMOCTJ1 resp nnOJlOBWrOCrn CMepTHOCTlI resp nepegtKHBashy
l MOCTH n03BOnHlQT oxapaKTepH30BaTb npoueCChl BoenpoH3BoJJcTBa
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138
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15shy 19 20-24 25--21 30shy 34shy35-39 40-44 45-49
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139
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CTleJoBaTeTbHo 1lt03cprp1UnellT BonpotI3floncTBa OPYTTO paBeH
2717 _Rb = ~o15= l 3r
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nCJ1elilHl yMepwHx no taTe POgtIlt)JCHlm II B03paCTY CMepTIl H T )I
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nepon TO YCTaHasmlBaeTCH S03paCTHoe paCnpelleJiCHHe )l(el-llllHH Ha lIa~laJIO II KOlieu 3T01O neplJOlla ~ITO oOCTlraeTC5I COOTseTCTB)shy
IOlleH peoYKUHeii E03paCTTIOro pacnpe(CJleIHHr HanpltMep -lT06rx nOJ1~mTb 113 MaTeplfaJ10B 06CJ1t~aoBaHH5I 1956 r B03pacTHoe pacshynpeneJleHHe 118fHIoro KOIJlelTlfsa B 1940 r cJlenye-r nCpeJlBrfllyTb p~o n o B03pacTHolI lUl( aJ1C Ha 1U leT_ Korll tleCTBo rrpO)llThlX JleT
Jt-IH KalKnoro B03pacTHoro npoMCgtKYTtlta nOJlY4aeTcSl nYTeM nocJleshyAOBaTeJlbHoro cyMMHposaHHH 11aHllbiX 0 BCTynHslUHx B uaHHo~1 B(3pacTe B TOT ItJHI IHIOi XpOIlOJllrlllJeCKHii TIepnon II nmJ1elOBashyleJlblIOro BhPHlTaHH5I AaUI-lbIX 0 BblCTynHsllHIX H3 3Toro )Kf XPOllO
nOrHlJeCKOrO nepKona B oaHHOM B03paCTe DOSlCllInt TeXHUKY BblllHCJlCllliH CJ1CoYIOlllIHI npllMepOM B Ta6J1HUC 5a npI1Be~teHbI HClIICIeIITH J(JlIrrelbI-lOCTH nepHOlOa
Ha6mOlleHII51 no S03paCTHblM rpynna~1 J1l5T COBJKYnIIOCfH o6cJleshynosamlblX B 1956 r )JClIl1lHH (2802 4elOAela) no If(lCTHhl1 nepllo
131 no 1941 r 1941 - 19middot15 rr bull 1946-1956 rr BblLJI-ICIleHHH nposhy113BcaeHhl C1CaYIOUIIfM o6pa30M B rparpax 2 4 It G nallo pacrrpEue shyJIC~II1P Bcell COBOKvnHOCTIi o6c~eJlOBaHllblx iKelfllnH no BOJpacl v na HallaTlO lltaiKuoro llaCrHOrO nerHlOJ1a COOTBeTcTBYOIllIle lltela
W)JlY1leHbl nYTCM peoyKIlllH B03paCTlIOrO pacnpe1eJleHlISl Ha MO ]lellT OOcleJlOB3IlHH (rroqa 6) Tal lU1f1 B03pacTlloro pacnpe-leshy
1eIHI5T Ad 1941 r (rpacpa 2) penYlltlrr51 npOH3SE1eHa H3 15 ller
lHl paClipcnCJ1elIliSl Ha 1946 r (rparplt1 4) - 1C1 10 leT B rpacpax 3 5 H 7 nplIBeneHbl aerIHllHlllJ npOiKHTWX neT no OTshy
aeJllgtlIb11 B03paCTHblM npOMeKYTKaM no KaKLlOIY tlaCT~oMy neshy
pilon) BW411cleHIHI 3TIIX BCJlHllfH npOlI3seueHbl cIeAYIOllHlI oGshypa30TII
141
----
Ta6nllL35
PacnmiddotpellenCHHe pOlKJeHHH no BoapacTy amplaTep B MOMeHT POllOB
(o6c~eJoDaIlHe 1955 r )
B()j (laCT gtta lmiddotcpgt1 B MOM ellT pltJI101
B03p3CT ~nTcpll I o ~o ellT 06celloo31I11A
18 I 19 I 20 I 21 I 22 23 I 24 I 8 T JI
I 18 1955 19 1I 20 -2-1 shy21 1 3 1 shy22 I 1 1
4 -6-23 2 3 1 1 2 -2-~24 3
1 225 2 2 5 7
26 1 I 2 4 5 27 2 3 1 2 l 2
2R 1945 1 2 4 3 2 4 3
29 lt 3 2 I 2 41+130 L 5 1 3 1
- 7- 331 4 2 3 4 -2-132 2 3 5 2 5
6 -31 433 3 4 6 -3-34 2 3 5 5 4
35 3 4 7 3 4 7 36 2 3 6 l ) 5 37 2 j I 4 7 a If
33 1935 3 4 2 8 5 4
39 5 4 3 4 4 7I 6 3 8 (jJO -1- 5
--3shy41 2 2 1 5 7 3 3 42 4 6 - 3- 5 4 3
3 -2-143 2 1 4 3 11
44 3 2 () 4middot 6 - 2- 5 - 8shy45 3 l 7 4 4
46 5 4 3 3 5 6
47 5 5 1 3 4 48 2 7 2 5 ~ l
49 J 6 R C 5 l (j50 II CTapwe fi 4 8 9 7 9
Bcero pOlKneHHii 37 77 118 lIt 111 104 IIIl
B TOM IBcne no uepliOnaM
1945-1954 rr 7 18 23 21 26 32 34 1935--194+ rr 12 32 4J 46 47 42 50
110 1935 r 18 2fi 52 44 37 29 32
142
llJJ5I laCToro neplloll3 AO 1941 r (lpacpa 3) IHCJlO HaGmolleH HblX (np0gtKHTblX) JleT H s03pacTe 15 JleT 04eSHllHO paBHO tlllCJlY Bcex 2802 o6cJlellOSaHHblx )KeHtUMH 3a BbIeTOM 12middot~6 IKelJtUI-Hl He llOCnrrWHX K IWHlIY 3Toro lJaCTllOrO nepH01Ia 15 JleT T e 1556
BeJllFIIIHbl llMI B03pacroB 16 17 18 H T Jl nOJlY4eHbI nYTeM rrOCJleJlOBaTeJlbHOrO Bbl4HTaHHSI raquoltElltUHH HaXOllHBlllHXCSI K KOHUY nepHOJla B npeJlblJlYlUeH B03pacTHo~i rpynne (TaK )lJHI 16 JleT
1406 = 1556-150 DJHI 17 J1er 1359 = 1406-47 H T Jl) )lrUI 43CTIOro IlcpHoDa 1941-l945 fT (rpacenta 5) LIlII~10 HCl6
JlIOJleUllbIX (np0gtKWrbrx) JleT B B03pacTe 15 fleT OleSHJllO paBHo qHCJlY gtKeHlliHH sCTynJlBwHx B 3TOT nepHOa IO J]OCTIIgtKeIHlH ]5 neT (l2-l6) 3a BbllleTOM emIHIH He Il0CHlrWHX 3Toro B03paCTa JlO 1946 r (75 J ) MCKOMoe 1HCJ10 paBHO pa3fIOCTIl nllX lIHCeJl T e
1246-751 = 495 T 6 J1 11 L a 5a
HCIHCJlelllle npOJl(HTblX noll tlaonIOJleHlleM 1eT Anll Reeti rpynobl lIIeHutHH no neptO)laM
ItUI10 nposhyIt1J1hlyen 1I 0U
1Ifno lUCO lI uOICA shyIu( lUPfnpClICshy IUlllpCt shyPocnPClC middot npo~nn npOlKTbIX tHle Jle1JlIUUC IlOJlltaUlIOmiddot 11UHc1 CIUlCn[JoaIIThl~ 1I0JllliI61t10 Uil eeL)fCUHUIII
)KCUUUIll nolellHCMOJ 113611lt- ~ltellll(11I1D03p~C1 ACHlH leT nCpH OJl AO ACIlIlt4 neT no oOIn~T) 1t l 33
no BOIshy lIotflurTY Jtl 19~6 IOMCIITU JlO I ~middotI I r
rlOt middot middotY 1t3 lit 1J51i r1J11110 lhu r 1955 rr oIiCl1cIIlt)shy1911 r (Itw rr OnltlUI (1J5I r)
I 7 86~ 3 41
751 751
) 2-16 -no 15 31 2A02) 16 495155615 150 aq 27719164middot1998)6 140047
976 2733 18
75135y 1M aVti17 72 1Jd l79 ~65839241) f512S7
Y4671 25-1038 353) 211HI 42 135 II T ~ 1 T a
21 150 II T lI20 II T n
~3middot17I 7n72 84
22 46
24 23
80-42 )96tl T 1125 98
27 21)
7R 85
29 28
38 30 150 31 47 32 72 33 46 34 42
11 T bull u II T Jl t t
Bcero Q
BemfllHHbl llJlH B03paC10B 16 17 18 1I T lI nOJIytleHbl CJleJlYshyIOlUliM 06pa30M npH6aRJleHbl 1Ilcna )f(eflLLIH1J HaXOllHBWHXC5I K HaLIaJlY nepnoJJa B npeAblllytUej B03paCTHoii npynne (rpacpa 2) 11
143
- -- ---
PaCnpelleJlelllle raquolteI-lllJHII no B03pacry B lOlgtleUT 06C~leLlOBai1l1H II B03paCTY BCT)nJ1eHH5I B 6paK I1Jlli npeKparneHHH 6paKa KdK yKashy3aHO Bhlwe LlaeT B03MOiKHOCTb pacnp el1e1HTb HX no xpOHOnOrHleshyClmM nepHonaM (LlHarOHaJ1blIbiM JTHHHflM I130Xp0l(nl) llJUr KaiK shy
loro B03paCTa nOrOlHO nOJlcqHThlBaeTen lHCJlO COCTOHBilHiX Ii 6pashyKe K KOIIUY nepHOLla (FlnlI ITO TO Me n epeWeJlWHX B COCTOHHHe 6paKa B cleJlYIOLUHii nepHOJl) TaK ~IHCJlO 23-JleTHHX COCTOHBillllX K 6paKe B 1945 r bull nOJTYllaeTC5J no ropH30HfaJlH B03paCTa 33 r Ol la ( Ha MOMeHT 06CJleIlOBaHHfI) rrYTeM CyMIgtIYI[l oaaHIUI BCryf1RBWRX B 6paK no 1945 r H BbllIITaHHH CJIYllaes np eIltpaLUCHH5I 6paKa
18 = 2+ 4 I 5 5 middotH~- 1
LfHCJ1a npoMHTblX leT B OpatJHOM COCTOHHIlI1 nJlSl OT)lenbHbI X
XpOH0J10rH4eCKHx nepHOJlOB (CM Ta6n 6a) orrpeJlenHIOTC5I cneJly shyIO[UHM 06pa30M rroroaI1O I1MI Karaquoltnoro B03pacTa nOCJlenOBaTeJ1bshy110 CYMMIlPYIOTC5I nepeweLltIllle B COCT05HlIe 6pallta T13 npeiJbICyweshyro nepHOla ( r pacpa 2) H BCTymwwHe B GpaK B llaHHOM B03pacTe If
B naHHOM nepnOl1e (rpacpa 3) Ii nOCJ1eJlOBaTeJlbIlO BblllHTalOTCH Dce npeKpanlBWlle 6paK (rpacpa 4) H nepeXOJl5IllJHe B COCTOfllHIC 6paKa B cJ1enYIOwuH n epHOlt (rpacpa 5) Tallt 4liCIJO np0gtKHTbIX OpalHblX JleT B B03pacre 19 J1eT I1J1H liIepHona 1945-1954 rr paBlfo
84= 38+2+ 48- 1- 3
JlSI 22 TIeT
160 = 154 + 6+18- 3-15 H T i
T a 6 Jl II [I a 6a
HCIIICJleIlHe 6paIHoro nepHOJla (lHCna npOlKHTblX neT) J1nJl xpOHOnOrlfeCKOrO nepHOJla
QI(10 iKe lllIllIH 1I lIen n n PO)lt)11LfHeno +C IIlL( HlI lJucno 011 11 11111TO c H t B 6PU 4 110 M BCTynHulIlI II li1l 1H
Aalllloro BlnpaCT(I Jl3 UH OI O UO IpH CTa B n~plloJll COllOSl HlIII 8 LaJt~ p CKpJ shytOCTOSlUIllH 8 C()CTCl 5I BllJItX 9BIIJ p nCT (IWi 1111 r ) T il BllHt X 110 B03P KTC
(ipnKc lin 11118110 liPKC K KOIII Iu n tJIIIIUU 6pnllt H ncpllo middot ne po)1 (1945 r ) lIe l a (K l middot i~ 1 ) (1~IS- 1 9fimiddot1 r r)BO p UCl C
-Ii I 51 2 middot1
_18 -38 - 3 19 12 ~tl 3 84
() 20 1)11 1J9 f)21 2 15425 6
22 18 3 156 160 23 6 17IS 16 161 2middot1 l 2012 10 139
U T jI
1-[
BbiGTeHbl HaXOlI1BWneCn B Toil Ie B03paCTIlOH rpynlle Ha KOHel( 11epHOJla (rpacenta 4)
TaK 449 = 495+ 150- 196 398 = 449 + 47- 98 11 T JI
llJU qaCTHOro nepJoIona 1946-1955 rr (rpacpa 7) BeJllollfHHbl QJTH B03pacToB 16 17 18 If T 11 1l0JT)IeHbl anaJlOrHlIHO naUHblM ilJH nepnola 194 L- [945 rr
TaK 916=751 + 196- 31 976 = 916+98- 38 R T 11 Cnoc06 nOJl)Ie lfH5I Ilall ll bl X )lJl51 Bcero nepHona B ueJlOM (lpashy
ltJa 8) IlOfICneH Bhlwe npHBeLleM erne OllHlI npllMcp fI pllMeHeHIIH MeTOl1a H30XpOll I1JHl
Bb[~IHCJleHHH no n epHOl1aM IIPOlHTbIX 6pa rlIfblx JTeT PaClteT nposhyH3BOLlHTCH no AallRblJI1 pacnpel1eJTeHH5 IeHlLUB no B03paCTY B MOshyMeHT o6CJTelOBaHHH (1956 r) H no B03pacTY scrynrleHHH B 6paK 1-1 ero npel(parneHHH (Ta61J 6)
T a 6 Jl II II a 6
PacnpeAeneHHe 06cneJ(onaHI1b1x no B03pacTY nCTynneHHII H OpeKpalleJlHSI 6paxa
B(J3pa CT B MOICIiT oc rynnclIHR A (ipallt MII npC Kp3utCIIIIR Opa lw
Bf) 3K3CT 91()1 CllT I ltI r~CA()fJIJIfIiSl II I I I I IIS 19 ~n n 22 21 2middot1 II T JI
18 1955 19 J I shy-ashy20 1 t
VI
21 J 2 I 2 22 6 -4 1 5 TIl I 23 5 5 4 3 -=-1
324 6 7 2 2 1 21 I---= 25 4 4 5 32 )
26 5 7 7 j 2 2 2 17 4 ti 7 G 2 32 28 1945 2 j 2 1 29 1 ) 5 1 2(2 30 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 12 31 21 --~ I I 1 2 1 2
- 1-132 2 3 2 1 12 33 2 -1 5 5 1 ---3-1_1 34 3 4 -tl I 2 11) 1_1_
It T 11
fj 194r)-I)) ( 11
tl CTYIIIIIO B 6paK 38 IS middot19 21 J8 Hi ll
flPCK P iITIf 1(l 6pt K 2 1 Ii
1 Iml u ihTYI11UJlUIi X H 0lllli ylhOl~oI h IIHmiddotHrrc1c IUUI ilptM11IHIIIII UnC1C
J~J
C OC TORBWHC II 6pIIc
110 linI1915 r
2 5 6 G
18 12
[( T I
19Sr
3 6 6
15 17 20 16 29 21 I 15 1 1 11 8
19 13
f[ 1 L
rlpi - B atltmiddot
4 HccneAoBaHHe CBH3K AeMorpa$HQeCKHX npo~eccoB C APyrHMH SlBneHHSlMH
nepeA HccneuOBaTene 1acTO BCTae-r 3alla4a xapaKTepnCTHKI
JlerwrpaqI14eCKHX npoueccoB B CBgtl3H C HEKOTOPbIMH BagtKltblMrt
C06blTl51lH Il nepeMefa ~111 B )IH13HU lltonJleKTlIBa II OTJlCJlbHOrO J1 Hshy
Ila TaKoBo nanpurep H3YleHlle pO)KIlaeMOCTII JeTclltoii olepTshyHOCHI B CBH311 C pU3RIltIJl5IMlI B TpYlle MaTep (npoMblwfleHluuk
HRII HenpOMbIWleIIUblii) 1ltIrJ11 LLHeM Hml (fCYTCTBHeM 3amIT tiK KYshy
CTapllblM npO~lbICJlOr B KpeCTb5lHCKlIX CelMIX ncpeCeJlCHl-leM B HO
Bble )KIIJ1I1Ula H l iTO B CBoe BpeM5I 6b1rlO oco6emIO BaXltHO nCTynshyleHIleM B KO1JleKTIIBIOe X035l1IcTBO C aKKilHMaTII3aUlleii npB nepeshy
ceneHlIfI B ApKTHKY B BblCOlltoropHble paiiollbi II T bull t OGblllllO B
11 IIX c~yqaSIX InYlfellue BpoundleTCSI nYTeM conOCTaB1elllHI JtBYX KOJIshy
leKTrIBOB 06J1analOI1lIlX (( lie 061aaaIOlllIH laIlFlWM npR3H8KOM ()aHaKO npaKTlltIeCllI lIeB0310gtKHO nOlblCKaTb Ko1rJeKTIIBbl lOCT8shy
TOlIfO OJlIIOpOQHhle BO nce~1 OCTaJlbIlOM II 3TO eCTeCTBellllO 3aTshy
PY)lHfleT 3allltlllY IIcCnClOBClHIf51 If HepellKO uCJlaeT ee lIepa3pCllIIIshy
oIoii Tallt HanplfMep npB conOCTaBJleHllH llByX KOJlJ1eKTIISOBshy
gtKlmylllllx B 1I0BbiX lolax H )OiBYUlIiX B CTapLIX llOM8X - nml IICshy
crlenOBaHIIH BJ1IWHII51 iKlUlIllllHblX YCJlOBlIii lla pmK)laeMOCTb UJIH
lleTCKYIO CMepmOCTb lJpe3Bbl l JaiiHO TpYliHO rrCK~IOIlITb BIJII5IHIH~ f03paCTllblX CounaJlbHomiddot6blTOBblX 11 llpyrHx pa3111LJII~i MegtKlY Te-I npli allaMHeCTlI4eClltO1 ~leTOlle B03~IOgtKHOCTb o6pa30BalllHl 13 aaHshy
1I0ii reHepaJlbHOii COBQKynHocTII LIZCTHbiX COBOIltYIlHOCTeir no llaHshy
11O1Y npOll3BonbHO BbI6pallliOY npl13HaKY (HanpllMep nepeceneshy
lTle B HOBbie )lOMa) o6eurocneLJ HBaeT llOCTaTOlJHYIO oanopoaI-lOCTb
)TIIX LJaCTllbiX COBOIltynHocTeti B OCTaJlbHblX OHlOwellllfiX H nprrJ18er
nonylJ8(~lbTM p(3)~bTaTa1 HeoUxoaHMYIO T04HOCTb 3aCCb BCCJleshy
nOBalnle BelleTca KaK UbI B yC~OBHI1X LtHCTOrO 3KCneplllleHTltI Tn 0 VCJlOBIHII OllblTa BIlt1101laCTC51 JlIIOO HCIltJlI0lJaeTCSl lleiicTBHe Toro
lInll- HHoro qaIltTOp1
Ana 1 HeCTllteC1Wli ICTO OTIltPblrJ B03MOgtKHOCTb 13Y4ellHH 3TIlX
BlefIHii B )KelJaeIO~( HarrpaB1eHIII1 6e3 npoBeAelllSI CJlOKllbIX
fWHTpOl bH blX llCCJIIlOsaH JJ if np((MCHSlSI VleT0Jl 1I811eTHbiX PSlAOB MO)f(lIO p83JeJlHTb Hccneshy
tyellYlo COBolltynllocTb Ila tfaCTIfW~ c OBoKyrrHOCTlJ oGnaJlalOlllHe aIlHbl~l npu3HarmiddotarIH C YIeTOM B03pacT8 H XpmfOJlOrHtjtcKoro
nepllola a Ta6111lf lIoe pacrr pelleJHHlTe nOMoraeT YCTa HOBIlTb lJHCshy
JleHIlOCTb HCClelyeMolx 5IBJleHllii (p0gtKJJellHi-i cMcpTeii 11 T a)
cooTBeTcTBYIOUlI1X Te IJlI HllbiM lIaCTUblM cOBollt)middotnIlOCT5IM TaK
Ha 1aTepHaJle OlHorO 1I Toro IKe 06CJlellOBarUfH 6bllll 13Y4ellb( )a3
lIf4HSl B n10aOBHTOCTlI 10 nepeCeJleHI15I B HOBbIe llOCeJIKIl 11 nocJte rrepecenemw no naLJaJla pa60Tbi B aalfllOr npocpCCCllll II B nepHOl
pa60Tbl B neil
nlH YCI30eHlI1 MeTOlIl4eCKHX npennocblJlOK nOAo6HblX HC4HCJI(gtshy
II If i 1l01e3I10 BOCnOJlb30BaTbCSl rpaqH4ecKI1~1H KOllCTPYKUIHIMI1 lleshy
~Orpacpl14eCKHX npoueccoB B BITae J1HHHii OTpagtKalOllIHx Te4eHHe
146
HOl3BH lleJ10SeKa OT pOgtKlleIlHH llO cMepnr liJllJ llO MOMenTa H86lt110shy
lem Hi (ltltgtK13HeHHblf JlIlHIHIraquo JIeKcHca)
MeTOA TaKHX HC4HCJIeHHH n051CHHM lIa CJlellYlOllIeM npllMepe lIashy
WliX HCCJlellOBaHHii HaCeJleHHH 1I0BblX pa004HX nOCeJlKOB
113YQeHIIIO nOAneiKaJlH CllBHTll B pOgtKllaCMOCTli R JJeTcKoimiddoti
c1epT HOCTH B CBfT31l C nepecencHHeM B HOBble aOMa ECJlH Tpaqmshy11eCKrl H306pa311Tb B BHlIe pfTlla gtK113HeHllb1X Jl HHH H 06CJ1eaoBaHshy
Hbll KOJlJleKHIB (CM pnc 9) TO Ha KagtKaoi-i 113 COOTBeTCTBYIOWHX
gtKH3ReHHblX JIIlHlljf MOgtKlIO OTMeTIlTb TOlJKOH llaTY nepeCeJlellHfI B
HCBble llOMa B CSfl3H C KOTOPblM H3YLJaeTCfI pOgtKllaeMOCTb H leTshyCKt1fT CMepTlIOCTb 3TH T04KH pa3JJeJl51IOT (agtKllYIO gtKH3 HeHHYIO JIli
tfHIO Ha aBa CaMOCTOfTTeJlbHblX OTpe3Ka nepBbl H (JleBhIH ) BblpashylKalOlllni-i TeqeHHe gtKU3H If llO HacTynJleHHH aaHllor o C06hlfHSI H
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c TynleHHH )laHHOro C06bITHSI HeTpyaHO BHlleTb ITO BeCb pRa OTshy
pe3KOB pa36HBaeTC5I laK 6hl H3 aBe CaMOC1QflTeJIbHble cep HIi OTshyPe3KOB [ - llO HclcTynJleHH5I C06b1TIHI (n epeceneHlHI) - neBbl e OT shy
PC3KH (He3aWTpHXOBaHlibl e) 1I - nocJle HacTynJleHRH COOhiTIlH
(nepeceJleHH51) - npaBble OTpe3KH (3aWTpHXOBaHHble)
ECJlH CJIenYfT To~r gtKe rparq HlIecKoi-i KOHCPpYKUHH pacnpeaCJ llT lgt POgtK)lNlHH no B03paCTY MaTepn B MOMeHT HX lIacTynJleHHfT (3H311
bull Ha cxeMe) TO BCH cOBoKynHoCTb pOgtKlleHHH COOTReTCTBel-iHO pacshy
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a Ha npaBhlX - PO)f(leI-IH5I HMeBW ITe VleCTO nocJle HacrynJlelH a8HHOro C0 6blTHSl ( n e pecelCHHfI)
CoorueTCTBellllO TaKoMY pacrrpelleleHlfIO I1CC1eaoB8IlIIe BelCTcrt
1I JJByX HanpaBJleHl1stx 1 113YQellue pO)f(llaetIOCTIi lJ5I cOBoKynuocTI )eHlllll H aa II HOshy
ro KOJlJTeKTHBa B nepllOll IIX )IltH3fiH n o n epeCeJleHfISl B HOBbIe 1l0ra
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npOMeKYTKax (lI1iCJla np0gtKHTbIX neT) nOJlYLJalOTCH no MeTOJlY Hashy4eTHbi X P5IllOB HX B(gt1HlIJIll neplIOH cepl11l OTpe3KOB (lie 38WTPHOshyra lIflan qacn) npHltteM HHgtKHeii B03pClCTHOI1 rpalllllleil (BIJIJ04eshy
flllc noa Ha6tlOueH~e) HB1SleTCH lIaLfaJlO npOH3BOlHTerlbHoro B03shy
paCTa (15 JleT) Bep)He~i B03pacTHolI rpallJfuei1 (lICKJlIOIelllJe II lla6JlJoremlR) - R03pacT gtKeHUlHHbJ B MOMe(fT lIacTynJIeHHSI LIaH shy1I0ro C06bITIlff (nep eCeJlelHf51) Heo(ixOLlH 1 ble 1lt03qqHUlteHTbl
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3 13 a T Ilt II C r A K MeTonOJlOnlH 1t3YIJC8Hff BJHHIIIHl lIpocjJCCCl1l 113 nposhyIf~ BonHTe1bHylO cjJYHKlJUlO )KemllIIHbl laquofmUeHa 6C3onaCHoCTb It naTOnOrHH rpyn3 N2 2 M 1930
4 13 0 1I p C K 11 if A 51 It ill Ywe p H B n n Lle~lOrpacjJlJIleCKall CT3T11shyCTHKa M 1955
5 B bt C T P 0 B a B A LlocToeepHoCTb AamrblX nOJlylae~tblx alla~HleCTil-4(CKllM MeTonOM ABTopccjJepaT J1llccepTaUHH M 1954
6 Be H II 6 e p r B MeronIlKa H TeIIIlKa CT3TliCTHKU B nplIJlogtKellllH couliallbllOi 6lonortll1 nepeBoll nOll pCLl A B MOJIhKOB3 M 1928
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9 My x a 1 ell blip 0 B ltI) r OnblT 1l3Yle1l1lSl nJlOJlOllHTOlTIi gtKCtlWHIlbtshyTaTapKH 1I nepe)KUBaeMOCTll ee peOCHI3 K33 Men )KypHal Ka3a1lEo 1930
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152
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COOTI-lOllIellllC ~JIlCla POJlIIAUlllXCH MalhlJHKOB H oCBOlfeK no naHshy[(b1~1 aBTopa COCTaBJlHlO 1045 1000 OTCIOna lI3LJaJlbliaH lIllCJleIl shy
HOCTb Bcera nOKOJlCHIIH npHH51T~1 B 2045
CTleJoBaTeTbHo 1lt03cprp1UnellT BonpotI3floncTBa OPYTTO paBeH
2717 _Rb = ~o15= l 3r
I03rpcjgtlfuneliT BocnpoH3BoacTsa lIeno
_ 2lt)7 _) IRII - IOOU - _R
2 MeTO)l 1t30XPOH 2
Dpl-I rrpOBCJIeIlJlI aHallleerH4eCKlIX IICClenOB3mni JlCMorpacentnshyleCKne lTpOUeCCbl MoryT 6JITb 13Ytellb perpOCnelltTIlBHO no OTshyJefbHbIM HHTepeCYIOllII~1 HccnenOB3Te1H XpOHO10rtflJeCI(lJM n(-p~loshy
aai TaK B03MO)JHO cpaBIIHTeJlbHOe H3y~el--me pOJKIae10CTH
cepTHOCTIi npoueCC05 Bocnp01l3BonCTS3 rrace1ellllH 3a neplIOJlh1 10peSOJ1l0UHOIHLlir (ao 19 18 r ) H nOCJlEpeBOJIlOUHOHHblii 3a uoshyBoeHHblii (1918-19middot10) II 1l0CJleBOeffliJlj H 3a 6oec lleTa~bHble XpoHO10rlf1-leCIltlC nepollhl (lla nplnlep 5- 1O-1eTH lie II T n) 3TO ooecne4HBaeTC51 npmleleHlIEM MeTona 1I30XPOf OCHOBalIIIOlO na pacnpeleJleHlI1 cooTBer crByrOllI1X naHHblX B TaK Ha3hTSaelblX Ta6shy
J1Tuax Tpex 1I3MepeliHii
I 06wenpIIHflTIJC B I ac rOllwee apeln GpyTTO 11 flerro - 1OjJrVIIllIfCHTbI BocnrOIf3BOnCTB3 IICIIIIC111101Cfl IICCKOJlbKO THialle II o603I1a IIBTOT I) 6pYTTOshyKOltjJijllTUlICIiT (B3lOIlOii rpy6blii nOKa3aTC~b) BOCrrpOll31l01lCTila - 4IC10 lC60shyIltK POC1ClillbIX Il qClIlC~1 OJ1I1Oli (llllllIfIiOli 3a uel nJlO)l06HTblil nepHOD cc WiIlH II 2) neTTo-Ko3cjJltjlHlHleHT (OtIllWlHHblf DOK33aTCb aOCllpOIl31l0ilCTB3 mlla3)Tlt1[ IIIICToro t ocnpo1l3BocTlla) - TO iKe COOTH OWeHlli MBTtpeii Ii l104Cshypdi L10 C YTO~I j1a3~H pOI3 c~lepTH(ICTII gtKClIIlIIIH B B03pacTc 10 50 JleT (Kolla 11J10JlODIiTOro lleplIOJla KIL3HI ilCllllllIllW) OrpaKellHWX B TaOJIIIllaX CMCPTtIOCTI )h(IICKOro 113tCJICllliR J(TOHIKY BWIflC tellust 3TlIX 1I0Ka1aTeeii eM I) A 51 [j 0 $I pc K II ii Kypc1e~lOrpal~IIleCloli e1-aTIiCTIIhIImiddot M 1945 eTp 84- 90 2) A 5I [) 0 SI P ( I II II II n n III Y III e p 11 It laquolJeMorpacjJllqc(laR CTaTHCTllIlt8 M 1955 erp 290---3UO A M_ J e p Ilt 0 11 laquoJlc~OrJlacjJlIllecKaR CTaTIICTIIKaraquo 1950 eTp l ui [G6 _ Ped
2 l M TllOI( CTp 22 c(i(lPHIIK1
1middot0
Ta6J11lua 5 nOKa3blBal0llafl pacnpelleJlCHlle pO)lJleIlIIH flO B03shypacTY )eHllHR B MOMellT o6CJleIoBamHI (nowegtKalllCe) il no IIX
B03paCTY B MOfeIlT P021nellllH peGeHllta (cKa3yeMoe) 11aeT B03shyMOiKHOCTb pacnpeneJlNIIHI ITO COOTBeTCTBYIOUlIIM oloIarOHaJlflM Tex Ie C06h1TIIH no XpOIIOJlOrHlJeC[lIM llaTa~1 To iKe B CJ1Y4ae pacnpcshy
nCJ1elilHl yMepwHx no taTe POgtIlt)JCHlm II B03paCTY CMepTIl H T )I
3m n~larOllaJlH HOCHT na3BaHHC 1130XpOI (JIeKcHc-KHanrr) T c J111 lTJlIl COelIlIl5IOWIIX TOllKII c06bITmi OJlIl1aKOBOro BpeMeHloI MOgtKshy110 rOBopllTb He TOJlblW 06 H30XpOlax MIHH~X HO II 06 H30XpOH
HbX nJlOwanHX (lf30XpOHHbIX nOJllHOHax) orpalllllleHHbIx oBYfH H30xpoHa MI1 nooctteTbI no 1oI30xpoHaM no l30XpOllllblllt nOllHroshy
113M naIOT pacnpenerrCIIle OCHOBHoil cOBoKynIlOCTl (pOgtKJ1eHni-i CMcpTeii II T a) no COOTBeTCTBYIOWHM XpOIlOJlOrH4eCI-IM neposhy
ua1 COBoKyrrHocTu npoiKlfTblX leT nMI Bceil 06cleJOBaIlHo~1 rpynshylTbl B Ka)IO-1 B03paCHIOM npOMCiltyTKC B aaIlIlOM XpOIIOJlOnPl eCshyKO neplfO]e nOJlYlfalOTCSl nYTeM COOTBeTCTBYIOlleii iOJlcplI~aUllll 06urlHhlX MeTOnos HalJeTHbI( p~UIOB
nOpHJIOK BblpoundHCJ1eIlHH COBOIYlTIIOCTI npOgtKHThiX nou Ha6molleshy
lIIeM JleT AJU Bceii r p ynnbT o6cneoOBaHHbrX 3a BCCb nepffOn HX
iKII3HH B B03paCTe CTaprue 15 neT npl1Se]JeH BblllIe (Ta6Jl 1 CTp 135)
ECJlH Fle06xoalTMO yqeCTb eme TOT JIll IiHoii POIIOJIOrHlleCKuii
nepon TO YCTaHasmlBaeTCH S03paCTHoe paCnpelleJiCHHe )l(el-llllHH Ha lIa~laJIO II KOlieu 3T01O neplJOlla ~ITO oOCTlraeTC5I COOTseTCTB)shy
IOlleH peoYKUHeii E03paCTTIOro pacnpe(CJleIHHr HanpltMep -lT06rx nOJ1~mTb 113 MaTeplfaJ10B 06CJ1t~aoBaHH5I 1956 r B03pacTHoe pacshynpeneJleHHe 118fHIoro KOIJlelTlfsa B 1940 r cJlenye-r nCpeJlBrfllyTb p~o n o B03pacTHolI lUl( aJ1C Ha 1U leT_ Korll tleCTBo rrpO)llThlX JleT
Jt-IH KalKnoro B03pacTHoro npoMCgtKYTtlta nOJlY4aeTcSl nYTeM nocJleshyAOBaTeJlbHoro cyMMHposaHHH 11aHllbiX 0 BCTynHslUHx B uaHHo~1 B(3pacTe B TOT ItJHI IHIOi XpOIlOJllrlllJeCKHii TIepnon II nmJ1elOBashyleJlblIOro BhPHlTaHH5I AaUI-lbIX 0 BblCTynHsllHIX H3 3Toro )Kf XPOllO
nOrHlJeCKOrO nepKona B oaHHOM B03paCTe DOSlCllInt TeXHUKY BblllHCJlCllliH CJ1CoYIOlllIHI npllMepOM B Ta6J1HUC 5a npI1Be~teHbI HClIICIeIITH J(JlIrrelbI-lOCTH nepHOlOa
Ha6mOlleHII51 no S03paCTHblM rpynna~1 J1l5T COBJKYnIIOCfH o6cJleshynosamlblX B 1956 r )JClIl1lHH (2802 4elOAela) no If(lCTHhl1 nepllo
131 no 1941 r 1941 - 19middot15 rr bull 1946-1956 rr BblLJI-ICIleHHH nposhy113BcaeHhl C1CaYIOUIIfM o6pa30M B rparpax 2 4 It G nallo pacrrpEue shyJIC~II1P Bcell COBOKvnHOCTIi o6c~eJlOBaHllblx iKelfllnH no BOJpacl v na HallaTlO lltaiKuoro llaCrHOrO nerHlOJ1a COOTBeTcTBYOIllIle lltela
W)JlY1leHbl nYTCM peoyKIlllH B03paCTlIOrO pacnpe1eJleHlISl Ha MO ]lellT OOcleJlOB3IlHH (rroqa 6) Tal lU1f1 B03pacTlloro pacnpe-leshy
1eIHI5T Ad 1941 r (rpacpa 2) penYlltlrr51 npOH3SE1eHa H3 15 ller
lHl paClipcnCJ1elIliSl Ha 1946 r (rparplt1 4) - 1C1 10 leT B rpacpax 3 5 H 7 nplIBeneHbl aerIHllHlllJ npOiKHTWX neT no OTshy
aeJllgtlIb11 B03paCTHblM npOMeKYTKaM no KaKLlOIY tlaCT~oMy neshy
pilon) BW411cleHIHI 3TIIX BCJlHllfH npOlI3seueHbl cIeAYIOllHlI oGshypa30TII
141
----
Ta6nllL35
PacnmiddotpellenCHHe pOlKJeHHH no BoapacTy amplaTep B MOMeHT POllOB
(o6c~eJoDaIlHe 1955 r )
B()j (laCT gtta lmiddotcpgt1 B MOM ellT pltJI101
B03p3CT ~nTcpll I o ~o ellT 06celloo31I11A
18 I 19 I 20 I 21 I 22 23 I 24 I 8 T JI
I 18 1955 19 1I 20 -2-1 shy21 1 3 1 shy22 I 1 1
4 -6-23 2 3 1 1 2 -2-~24 3
1 225 2 2 5 7
26 1 I 2 4 5 27 2 3 1 2 l 2
2R 1945 1 2 4 3 2 4 3
29 lt 3 2 I 2 41+130 L 5 1 3 1
- 7- 331 4 2 3 4 -2-132 2 3 5 2 5
6 -31 433 3 4 6 -3-34 2 3 5 5 4
35 3 4 7 3 4 7 36 2 3 6 l ) 5 37 2 j I 4 7 a If
33 1935 3 4 2 8 5 4
39 5 4 3 4 4 7I 6 3 8 (jJO -1- 5
--3shy41 2 2 1 5 7 3 3 42 4 6 - 3- 5 4 3
3 -2-143 2 1 4 3 11
44 3 2 () 4middot 6 - 2- 5 - 8shy45 3 l 7 4 4
46 5 4 3 3 5 6
47 5 5 1 3 4 48 2 7 2 5 ~ l
49 J 6 R C 5 l (j50 II CTapwe fi 4 8 9 7 9
Bcero pOlKneHHii 37 77 118 lIt 111 104 IIIl
B TOM IBcne no uepliOnaM
1945-1954 rr 7 18 23 21 26 32 34 1935--194+ rr 12 32 4J 46 47 42 50
110 1935 r 18 2fi 52 44 37 29 32
142
llJJ5I laCToro neplloll3 AO 1941 r (lpacpa 3) IHCJlO HaGmolleH HblX (np0gtKHTblX) JleT H s03pacTe 15 JleT 04eSHllHO paBHO tlllCJlY Bcex 2802 o6cJlellOSaHHblx )KeHtUMH 3a BbIeTOM 12middot~6 IKelJtUI-Hl He llOCnrrWHX K IWHlIY 3Toro lJaCTllOrO nepH01Ia 15 JleT T e 1556
BeJllFIIIHbl llMI B03pacroB 16 17 18 H T Jl nOJlY4eHbI nYTeM rrOCJleJlOBaTeJlbHOrO Bbl4HTaHHSI raquoltElltUHH HaXOllHBlllHXCSI K KOHUY nepHOJla B npeJlblJlYlUeH B03pacTHo~i rpynne (TaK )lJHI 16 JleT
1406 = 1556-150 DJHI 17 J1er 1359 = 1406-47 H T Jl) )lrUI 43CTIOro IlcpHoDa 1941-l945 fT (rpacenta 5) LIlII~10 HCl6
JlIOJleUllbIX (np0gtKWrbrx) JleT B B03pacTe 15 fleT OleSHJllO paBHo qHCJlY gtKeHlliHH sCTynJlBwHx B 3TOT nepHOa IO J]OCTIIgtKeIHlH ]5 neT (l2-l6) 3a BbllleTOM emIHIH He Il0CHlrWHX 3Toro B03paCTa JlO 1946 r (75 J ) MCKOMoe 1HCJ10 paBHO pa3fIOCTIl nllX lIHCeJl T e
1246-751 = 495 T 6 J1 11 L a 5a
HCIHCJlelllle npOJl(HTblX noll tlaonIOJleHlleM 1eT Anll Reeti rpynobl lIIeHutHH no neptO)laM
ItUI10 nposhyIt1J1hlyen 1I 0U
1Ifno lUCO lI uOICA shyIu( lUPfnpClICshy IUlllpCt shyPocnPClC middot npo~nn npOlKTbIX tHle Jle1JlIUUC IlOJlltaUlIOmiddot 11UHc1 CIUlCn[JoaIIThl~ 1I0JllliI61t10 Uil eeL)fCUHUIII
)KCUUUIll nolellHCMOJ 113611lt- ~ltellll(11I1D03p~C1 ACHlH leT nCpH OJl AO ACIlIlt4 neT no oOIn~T) 1t l 33
no BOIshy lIotflurTY Jtl 19~6 IOMCIITU JlO I ~middotI I r
rlOt middot middotY 1t3 lit 1J51i r1J11110 lhu r 1955 rr oIiCl1cIIlt)shy1911 r (Itw rr OnltlUI (1J5I r)
I 7 86~ 3 41
751 751
) 2-16 -no 15 31 2A02) 16 495155615 150 aq 27719164middot1998)6 140047
976 2733 18
75135y 1M aVti17 72 1Jd l79 ~65839241) f512S7
Y4671 25-1038 353) 211HI 42 135 II T ~ 1 T a
21 150 II T lI20 II T n
~3middot17I 7n72 84
22 46
24 23
80-42 )96tl T 1125 98
27 21)
7R 85
29 28
38 30 150 31 47 32 72 33 46 34 42
11 T bull u II T Jl t t
Bcero Q
BemfllHHbl llJlH B03paC10B 16 17 18 1I T lI nOJIytleHbl CJleJlYshyIOlUliM 06pa30M npH6aRJleHbl 1Ilcna )f(eflLLIH1J HaXOllHBWHXC5I K HaLIaJlY nepnoJJa B npeAblllytUej B03paCTHoii npynne (rpacpa 2) 11
143
- -- ---
PaCnpelleJlelllle raquolteI-lllJHII no B03pacry B lOlgtleUT 06C~leLlOBai1l1H II B03paCTY BCT)nJ1eHH5I B 6paK I1Jlli npeKparneHHH 6paKa KdK yKashy3aHO Bhlwe LlaeT B03MOiKHOCTb pacnp el1e1HTb HX no xpOHOnOrHleshyClmM nepHonaM (LlHarOHaJ1blIbiM JTHHHflM I130Xp0l(nl) llJUr KaiK shy
loro B03paCTa nOrOlHO nOJlcqHThlBaeTen lHCJlO COCTOHBilHiX Ii 6pashyKe K KOIIUY nepHOLla (FlnlI ITO TO Me n epeWeJlWHX B COCTOHHHe 6paKa B cleJlYIOLUHii nepHOJl) TaK ~IHCJlO 23-JleTHHX COCTOHBillllX K 6paKe B 1945 r bull nOJTYllaeTC5J no ropH30HfaJlH B03paCTa 33 r Ol la ( Ha MOMeHT 06CJleIlOBaHHfI) rrYTeM CyMIgtIYI[l oaaHIUI BCryf1RBWRX B 6paK no 1945 r H BbllIITaHHH CJIYllaes np eIltpaLUCHH5I 6paKa
18 = 2+ 4 I 5 5 middotH~- 1
LfHCJ1a npoMHTblX leT B OpatJHOM COCTOHHIlI1 nJlSl OT)lenbHbI X
XpOH0J10rH4eCKHx nepHOJlOB (CM Ta6n 6a) orrpeJlenHIOTC5I cneJly shyIO[UHM 06pa30M rroroaI1O I1MI Karaquoltnoro B03pacTa nOCJlenOBaTeJ1bshy110 CYMMIlPYIOTC5I nepeweLltIllle B COCT05HlIe 6pallta T13 npeiJbICyweshyro nepHOla ( r pacpa 2) H BCTymwwHe B GpaK B llaHHOM B03pacTe If
B naHHOM nepnOl1e (rpacpa 3) Ii nOCJ1eJlOBaTeJlbIlO BblllHTalOTCH Dce npeKpanlBWlle 6paK (rpacpa 4) H nepeXOJl5IllJHe B COCTOfllHIC 6paKa B cJ1enYIOwuH n epHOlt (rpacpa 5) Tallt 4liCIJO np0gtKHTbIX OpalHblX JleT B B03pacre 19 J1eT I1J1H liIepHona 1945-1954 rr paBlfo
84= 38+2+ 48- 1- 3
JlSI 22 TIeT
160 = 154 + 6+18- 3-15 H T i
T a 6 Jl II [I a 6a
HCIIICJleIlHe 6paIHoro nepHOJla (lHCna npOlKHTblX neT) J1nJl xpOHOnOrlfeCKOrO nepHOJla
QI(10 iKe lllIllIH 1I lIen n n PO)lt)11LfHeno +C IIlL( HlI lJucno 011 11 11111TO c H t B 6PU 4 110 M BCTynHulIlI II li1l 1H
Aalllloro BlnpaCT(I Jl3 UH OI O UO IpH CTa B n~plloJll COllOSl HlIII 8 LaJt~ p CKpJ shytOCTOSlUIllH 8 C()CTCl 5I BllJItX 9BIIJ p nCT (IWi 1111 r ) T il BllHt X 110 B03P KTC
(ipnKc lin 11118110 liPKC K KOIII Iu n tJIIIIUU 6pnllt H ncpllo middot ne po)1 (1945 r ) lIe l a (K l middot i~ 1 ) (1~IS- 1 9fimiddot1 r r)BO p UCl C
-Ii I 51 2 middot1
_18 -38 - 3 19 12 ~tl 3 84
() 20 1)11 1J9 f)21 2 15425 6
22 18 3 156 160 23 6 17IS 16 161 2middot1 l 2012 10 139
U T jI
1-[
BbiGTeHbl HaXOlI1BWneCn B Toil Ie B03paCTIlOH rpynlle Ha KOHel( 11epHOJla (rpacenta 4)
TaK 449 = 495+ 150- 196 398 = 449 + 47- 98 11 T JI
llJU qaCTHOro nepJoIona 1946-1955 rr (rpacpa 7) BeJllollfHHbl QJTH B03pacToB 16 17 18 If T 11 1l0JT)IeHbl anaJlOrHlIHO naUHblM ilJH nepnola 194 L- [945 rr
TaK 916=751 + 196- 31 976 = 916+98- 38 R T 11 Cnoc06 nOJl)Ie lfH5I Ilall ll bl X )lJl51 Bcero nepHona B ueJlOM (lpashy
ltJa 8) IlOfICneH Bhlwe npHBeLleM erne OllHlI npllMcp fI pllMeHeHIIH MeTOl1a H30XpOll I1JHl
Bb[~IHCJleHHH no n epHOl1aM IIPOlHTbIX 6pa rlIfblx JTeT PaClteT nposhyH3BOLlHTCH no AallRblJI1 pacnpel1eJTeHH5 IeHlLUB no B03paCTY B MOshyMeHT o6CJTelOBaHHH (1956 r) H no B03pacTY scrynrleHHH B 6paK 1-1 ero npel(parneHHH (Ta61J 6)
T a 6 Jl II II a 6
PacnpeAeneHHe 06cneJ(onaHI1b1x no B03pacTY nCTynneHHII H OpeKpalleJlHSI 6paxa
B(J3pa CT B MOICIiT oc rynnclIHR A (ipallt MII npC Kp3utCIIIIR Opa lw
Bf) 3K3CT 91()1 CllT I ltI r~CA()fJIJIfIiSl II I I I I IIS 19 ~n n 22 21 2middot1 II T JI
18 1955 19 J I shy-ashy20 1 t
VI
21 J 2 I 2 22 6 -4 1 5 TIl I 23 5 5 4 3 -=-1
324 6 7 2 2 1 21 I---= 25 4 4 5 32 )
26 5 7 7 j 2 2 2 17 4 ti 7 G 2 32 28 1945 2 j 2 1 29 1 ) 5 1 2(2 30 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 12 31 21 --~ I I 1 2 1 2
- 1-132 2 3 2 1 12 33 2 -1 5 5 1 ---3-1_1 34 3 4 -tl I 2 11) 1_1_
It T 11
fj 194r)-I)) ( 11
tl CTYIIIIIO B 6paK 38 IS middot19 21 J8 Hi ll
flPCK P iITIf 1(l 6pt K 2 1 Ii
1 Iml u ihTYI11UJlUIi X H 0lllli ylhOl~oI h IIHmiddotHrrc1c IUUI ilptM11IHIIIII UnC1C
J~J
C OC TORBWHC II 6pIIc
110 linI1915 r
2 5 6 G
18 12
[( T I
19Sr
3 6 6
15 17 20 16 29 21 I 15 1 1 11 8
19 13
f[ 1 L
rlpi - B atltmiddot
4 HccneAoBaHHe CBH3K AeMorpa$HQeCKHX npo~eccoB C APyrHMH SlBneHHSlMH
nepeA HccneuOBaTene 1acTO BCTae-r 3alla4a xapaKTepnCTHKI
JlerwrpaqI14eCKHX npoueccoB B CBgtl3H C HEKOTOPbIMH BagtKltblMrt
C06blTl51lH Il nepeMefa ~111 B )IH13HU lltonJleKTlIBa II OTJlCJlbHOrO J1 Hshy
Ila TaKoBo nanpurep H3YleHlle pO)KIlaeMOCTII JeTclltoii olepTshyHOCHI B CBH311 C pU3RIltIJl5IMlI B TpYlle MaTep (npoMblwfleHluuk
HRII HenpOMbIWleIIUblii) 1ltIrJ11 LLHeM Hml (fCYTCTBHeM 3amIT tiK KYshy
CTapllblM npO~lbICJlOr B KpeCTb5lHCKlIX CelMIX ncpeCeJlCHl-leM B HO
Bble )KIIJ1I1Ula H l iTO B CBoe BpeM5I 6b1rlO oco6emIO BaXltHO nCTynshyleHIleM B KO1JleKTIIBIOe X035l1IcTBO C aKKilHMaTII3aUlleii npB nepeshy
ceneHlIfI B ApKTHKY B BblCOlltoropHble paiiollbi II T bull t OGblllllO B
11 IIX c~yqaSIX InYlfellue BpoundleTCSI nYTeM conOCTaB1elllHI JtBYX KOJIshy
leKTrIBOB 06J1analOI1lIlX (( lie 061aaaIOlllIH laIlFlWM npR3H8KOM ()aHaKO npaKTlltIeCllI lIeB0310gtKHO nOlblCKaTb Ko1rJeKTIIBbl lOCT8shy
TOlIfO OJlIIOpOQHhle BO nce~1 OCTaJlbIlOM II 3TO eCTeCTBellllO 3aTshy
PY)lHfleT 3allltlllY IIcCnClOBClHIf51 If HepellKO uCJlaeT ee lIepa3pCllIIIshy
oIoii Tallt HanplfMep npB conOCTaBJleHllH llByX KOJlJ1eKTIISOBshy
gtKlmylllllx B 1I0BbiX lolax H )OiBYUlIiX B CTapLIX llOM8X - nml IICshy
crlenOBaHIIH BJ1IWHII51 iKlUlIllllHblX YCJlOBlIii lla pmK)laeMOCTb UJIH
lleTCKYIO CMepmOCTb lJpe3Bbl l JaiiHO TpYliHO rrCK~IOIlITb BIJII5IHIH~ f03paCTllblX CounaJlbHomiddot6blTOBblX 11 llpyrHx pa3111LJII~i MegtKlY Te-I npli allaMHeCTlI4eClltO1 ~leTOlle B03~IOgtKHOCTb o6pa30BalllHl 13 aaHshy
1I0ii reHepaJlbHOii COBQKynHocTII LIZCTHbiX COBOIltYIlHOCTeir no llaHshy
11O1Y npOll3BonbHO BbI6pallliOY npl13HaKY (HanpllMep nepeceneshy
lTle B HOBbie )lOMa) o6eurocneLJ HBaeT llOCTaTOlJHYIO oanopoaI-lOCTb
)TIIX LJaCTllbiX COBOIltynHocTeti B OCTaJlbHblX OHlOwellllfiX H nprrJ18er
nonylJ8(~lbTM p(3)~bTaTa1 HeoUxoaHMYIO T04HOCTb 3aCCb BCCJleshy
nOBalnle BelleTca KaK UbI B yC~OBHI1X LtHCTOrO 3KCneplllleHTltI Tn 0 VCJlOBIHII OllblTa BIlt1101laCTC51 JlIIOO HCIltJlI0lJaeTCSl lleiicTBHe Toro
lInll- HHoro qaIltTOp1
Ana 1 HeCTllteC1Wli ICTO OTIltPblrJ B03MOgtKHOCTb 13Y4ellHH 3TIlX
BlefIHii B )KelJaeIO~( HarrpaB1eHIII1 6e3 npoBeAelllSI CJlOKllbIX
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AHalH1eCTHIeCKUH MeTO] C ycrrexoM npH~leHHJlC5I TaK1Ke np H 113Yl leIlTlII CltlHllTa p HblX 110CJlenCI BH~i BOllHbI (KpbIM) npH H3ytlemm nereCeJleHIHI B YCJlOBIHIX KpaHHero Cesepa (HHCTlHYT rI1rI1eHbI AMI-l CCCP) nJl5I nonY4eHHH oQIlJei-i xapaKTep HCTHKH JlellOrpashycPlIlfeCIUlX npoueccoB a TalOKe C ueJlblO KOImiddottTPOJlH nOJlIIOTbI H DOshycToBepHocTII nallllblX 0CPUUl-IaJlbHOH CTaTnCTHKH 3aKaBKa3b5I (3KCshynCDHUlIOIJllOe 06CJlellOnallfie M HcTIlTYTa opramnauHH 311paBooxpa shyHe~Jli51 H HCnOpmr vlelHUHHbI HM H A CeMail1Ko)
B pa3pa6oTKe allaMHECTH-leCKOrO MeTO[la H B npOBeJleH1l 1I 3KCshynellHUHOHHbtX 11 HllblX oGcneJ]oBaHHii npHHlIMano yqacTHe 3HatJHshyreJlbHOe tfHCJlO n a Yllnbl X pa6oTHHKOB CCCP
YKA3ATEJlb JIMTEPATYPbl
OIHOBHble HCTOlIHlKH no MeTonOJlOrltleCKIlM BonpocaM)
I n e K C U c CT3Tbn lTo TeopHH CT3TIICTltKIt lIaCeJIellllSl l TeopnIl npaBCTshyBCllltOI CT3THCHIKII 1 fp3qJlIlecKII~1 MeTOA HCCJleAOB3UHSl CMepT1l0Cni II noshyIHlllOK BblmlpaHIISl B nepeaOAeuro nOA peA Ll y rrpOBa Cn6 1906
2 13 a T K II C r A Ol[epKII 110 CTaTHCTIIIeCKOIi MeToaOJtOrllll I K Bonpocy MeTOLlOJlOrtlll IICH1c~eRIHI Cpe)lHerO B03pac-ra 11 MeTOLl H30Xpml Ill H3YleHue 11 10110[lIlTOCTII IV y13Y l lelHle CMCPTHOCTII V feOMeTplll[eCl(He r pacjJuKIl naceshyJI(IIUS VI AnaMHCCTIIIeC)HH leTO B AeMorpaClIlH laquoCOUB3J1bH3n rHrllella~ N 19 1928 ~2 2-3 12-13 N94 (14) 1928
3 13 a T Ilt II C r A K MeTonOJlOnlH 1t3YIJC8Hff BJHHIIIHl lIpocjJCCCl1l 113 nposhyIf~ BonHTe1bHylO cjJYHKlJUlO )KemllIIHbl laquofmUeHa 6C3onaCHoCTb It naTOnOrHH rpyn3 N2 2 M 1930
4 13 0 1I p C K 11 if A 51 It ill Ywe p H B n n Lle~lOrpacjJlJIleCKall CT3T11shyCTHKa M 1955
5 B bt C T P 0 B a B A LlocToeepHoCTb AamrblX nOJlylae~tblx alla~HleCTil-4(CKllM MeTonOM ABTopccjJepaT J1llccepTaUHH M 1954
6 Be H II 6 e p r B MeronIlKa H TeIIIlKa CT3TliCTHKU B nplIJlogtKellllH couliallbllOi 6lonortll1 nepeBoll nOll pCLl A B MOJIhKOB3 M 1928
7 My x 3 M C1 L Sl pO B ltIgt f K Bonpocy 06 113Y l lCIIlIIl BOCnpOl-l3BO1CtBa IIOKOMIlHJI K33alfcK~rit Mell iKypH3n 11 6 1931
8 My x a M e Jl blip 0 B (Igt r K Bonpocy 06 1I3YIJClIliH nepCgtF111J3eMOCTif B3poclloro TaTapCKoro 113CCJlelillfl Ka3 ~ICl livpH3n Ka3aH 1930
9 My x a 1 ell blip 0 B ltI) r OnblT 1l3Yle1l1lSl nJlOJlOllHTOlTIi gtKCtlWHIlbtshyTaTapKH 1I nepe)KUBaeMOCTll ee peOCHI3 K33 Men )KypHal Ka3a1lEo 1930
10 n a C B C K If ii B B II 51 x 0 H T O B A n a npliMelleHlfli aHaMlICCTlllemiddot CKoro MtTOla B 1eMOrp3cjJIlIl laquoT pYllLJ LleorpacjJllleCKOro l1UCflITYTa AKaae1I111 HayK CCCPraquo T I 1933
I I c 11 II K e B H LJ r n I fclICJleHlle cpeililcro B03paCT1J IIClcrynneHliH 1l[l1l3shyHllKa 110 Kllel11ltllllblM llerllOJl1M rnrn lna 11 3nl11C~1ItworH5Iraquo 1Ii III 1927
152
12 C II H Ii e B 11 q r n BOJloroncKaSl KpCcTb5lHKa u ee peIJelloK M 1929 13 Til MME C OmgtT 13YleIlHSI eCteCTBeliBOro llB10KeBIUI uacelleHIHI B
KI IUI 1 3Ka x T awKellT 1933 14 T If M I E C OnbtT c31l1ITapBo-cT3TlICTIIQCCKOrO UCClcuon3Hllll DnollO-
IITOCTIl TawlCclTT 1936 15 c 0 n T bI C C K I Ii E 11 K nonpocy 0 rtpl1Meliellll1t aHaMHeCTllltteCKoro
~I oaa [l c3I1HTapHo-cTaTlICTIlleCKHX HCCJlenOBalllHIX cr~lIueL1a II caHHTapHlI~ N 3 1949
16 C T P Y M H IT H II C r np06J1eMloi 3KOHOMIIKII TpyJJa [JI V n p06J1(Ma
pll K1l3eMOCTlI B pa60Qerf ceMbe M 1957 17 ill 0 pO ( 0 BaA A MCToLlHKa 1I3)1eHHSI nJlO)JOBlITOCTll qenOBeKa_
T alllKeHT 1935 18 A n s c I L An lhe rate of morlality of early period of life and t he other
~l~li s li cs of families L 1879 19 K nap p L D ie sterblichkeit in Sachsen leipzig 1869 20 K u C z i ns k y R The balance of barlhs an d deaths N J 1928 21 Wei 0 b erg W Die Kinder cler Tuberkulosen LeIpzig 1913
----
Ta6nllL35
PacnmiddotpellenCHHe pOlKJeHHH no BoapacTy amplaTep B MOMeHT POllOB
(o6c~eJoDaIlHe 1955 r )
B()j (laCT gtta lmiddotcpgt1 B MOM ellT pltJI101
B03p3CT ~nTcpll I o ~o ellT 06celloo31I11A
18 I 19 I 20 I 21 I 22 23 I 24 I 8 T JI
I 18 1955 19 1I 20 -2-1 shy21 1 3 1 shy22 I 1 1
4 -6-23 2 3 1 1 2 -2-~24 3
1 225 2 2 5 7
26 1 I 2 4 5 27 2 3 1 2 l 2
2R 1945 1 2 4 3 2 4 3
29 lt 3 2 I 2 41+130 L 5 1 3 1
- 7- 331 4 2 3 4 -2-132 2 3 5 2 5
6 -31 433 3 4 6 -3-34 2 3 5 5 4
35 3 4 7 3 4 7 36 2 3 6 l ) 5 37 2 j I 4 7 a If
33 1935 3 4 2 8 5 4
39 5 4 3 4 4 7I 6 3 8 (jJO -1- 5
--3shy41 2 2 1 5 7 3 3 42 4 6 - 3- 5 4 3
3 -2-143 2 1 4 3 11
44 3 2 () 4middot 6 - 2- 5 - 8shy45 3 l 7 4 4
46 5 4 3 3 5 6
47 5 5 1 3 4 48 2 7 2 5 ~ l
49 J 6 R C 5 l (j50 II CTapwe fi 4 8 9 7 9
Bcero pOlKneHHii 37 77 118 lIt 111 104 IIIl
B TOM IBcne no uepliOnaM
1945-1954 rr 7 18 23 21 26 32 34 1935--194+ rr 12 32 4J 46 47 42 50
110 1935 r 18 2fi 52 44 37 29 32
142
llJJ5I laCToro neplloll3 AO 1941 r (lpacpa 3) IHCJlO HaGmolleH HblX (np0gtKHTblX) JleT H s03pacTe 15 JleT 04eSHllHO paBHO tlllCJlY Bcex 2802 o6cJlellOSaHHblx )KeHtUMH 3a BbIeTOM 12middot~6 IKelJtUI-Hl He llOCnrrWHX K IWHlIY 3Toro lJaCTllOrO nepH01Ia 15 JleT T e 1556
BeJllFIIIHbl llMI B03pacroB 16 17 18 H T Jl nOJlY4eHbI nYTeM rrOCJleJlOBaTeJlbHOrO Bbl4HTaHHSI raquoltElltUHH HaXOllHBlllHXCSI K KOHUY nepHOJla B npeJlblJlYlUeH B03pacTHo~i rpynne (TaK )lJHI 16 JleT
1406 = 1556-150 DJHI 17 J1er 1359 = 1406-47 H T Jl) )lrUI 43CTIOro IlcpHoDa 1941-l945 fT (rpacenta 5) LIlII~10 HCl6
JlIOJleUllbIX (np0gtKWrbrx) JleT B B03pacTe 15 fleT OleSHJllO paBHo qHCJlY gtKeHlliHH sCTynJlBwHx B 3TOT nepHOa IO J]OCTIIgtKeIHlH ]5 neT (l2-l6) 3a BbllleTOM emIHIH He Il0CHlrWHX 3Toro B03paCTa JlO 1946 r (75 J ) MCKOMoe 1HCJ10 paBHO pa3fIOCTIl nllX lIHCeJl T e
1246-751 = 495 T 6 J1 11 L a 5a
HCIHCJlelllle npOJl(HTblX noll tlaonIOJleHlleM 1eT Anll Reeti rpynobl lIIeHutHH no neptO)laM
ItUI10 nposhyIt1J1hlyen 1I 0U
1Ifno lUCO lI uOICA shyIu( lUPfnpClICshy IUlllpCt shyPocnPClC middot npo~nn npOlKTbIX tHle Jle1JlIUUC IlOJlltaUlIOmiddot 11UHc1 CIUlCn[JoaIIThl~ 1I0JllliI61t10 Uil eeL)fCUHUIII
)KCUUUIll nolellHCMOJ 113611lt- ~ltellll(11I1D03p~C1 ACHlH leT nCpH OJl AO ACIlIlt4 neT no oOIn~T) 1t l 33
no BOIshy lIotflurTY Jtl 19~6 IOMCIITU JlO I ~middotI I r
rlOt middot middotY 1t3 lit 1J51i r1J11110 lhu r 1955 rr oIiCl1cIIlt)shy1911 r (Itw rr OnltlUI (1J5I r)
I 7 86~ 3 41
751 751
) 2-16 -no 15 31 2A02) 16 495155615 150 aq 27719164middot1998)6 140047
976 2733 18
75135y 1M aVti17 72 1Jd l79 ~65839241) f512S7
Y4671 25-1038 353) 211HI 42 135 II T ~ 1 T a
21 150 II T lI20 II T n
~3middot17I 7n72 84
22 46
24 23
80-42 )96tl T 1125 98
27 21)
7R 85
29 28
38 30 150 31 47 32 72 33 46 34 42
11 T bull u II T Jl t t
Bcero Q
BemfllHHbl llJlH B03paC10B 16 17 18 1I T lI nOJIytleHbl CJleJlYshyIOlUliM 06pa30M npH6aRJleHbl 1Ilcna )f(eflLLIH1J HaXOllHBWHXC5I K HaLIaJlY nepnoJJa B npeAblllytUej B03paCTHoii npynne (rpacpa 2) 11
143
- -- ---
PaCnpelleJlelllle raquolteI-lllJHII no B03pacry B lOlgtleUT 06C~leLlOBai1l1H II B03paCTY BCT)nJ1eHH5I B 6paK I1Jlli npeKparneHHH 6paKa KdK yKashy3aHO Bhlwe LlaeT B03MOiKHOCTb pacnp el1e1HTb HX no xpOHOnOrHleshyClmM nepHonaM (LlHarOHaJ1blIbiM JTHHHflM I130Xp0l(nl) llJUr KaiK shy
loro B03paCTa nOrOlHO nOJlcqHThlBaeTen lHCJlO COCTOHBilHiX Ii 6pashyKe K KOIIUY nepHOLla (FlnlI ITO TO Me n epeWeJlWHX B COCTOHHHe 6paKa B cleJlYIOLUHii nepHOJl) TaK ~IHCJlO 23-JleTHHX COCTOHBillllX K 6paKe B 1945 r bull nOJTYllaeTC5J no ropH30HfaJlH B03paCTa 33 r Ol la ( Ha MOMeHT 06CJleIlOBaHHfI) rrYTeM CyMIgtIYI[l oaaHIUI BCryf1RBWRX B 6paK no 1945 r H BbllIITaHHH CJIYllaes np eIltpaLUCHH5I 6paKa
18 = 2+ 4 I 5 5 middotH~- 1
LfHCJ1a npoMHTblX leT B OpatJHOM COCTOHHIlI1 nJlSl OT)lenbHbI X
XpOH0J10rH4eCKHx nepHOJlOB (CM Ta6n 6a) orrpeJlenHIOTC5I cneJly shyIO[UHM 06pa30M rroroaI1O I1MI Karaquoltnoro B03pacTa nOCJlenOBaTeJ1bshy110 CYMMIlPYIOTC5I nepeweLltIllle B COCT05HlIe 6pallta T13 npeiJbICyweshyro nepHOla ( r pacpa 2) H BCTymwwHe B GpaK B llaHHOM B03pacTe If
B naHHOM nepnOl1e (rpacpa 3) Ii nOCJ1eJlOBaTeJlbIlO BblllHTalOTCH Dce npeKpanlBWlle 6paK (rpacpa 4) H nepeXOJl5IllJHe B COCTOfllHIC 6paKa B cJ1enYIOwuH n epHOlt (rpacpa 5) Tallt 4liCIJO np0gtKHTbIX OpalHblX JleT B B03pacre 19 J1eT I1J1H liIepHona 1945-1954 rr paBlfo
84= 38+2+ 48- 1- 3
JlSI 22 TIeT
160 = 154 + 6+18- 3-15 H T i
T a 6 Jl II [I a 6a
HCIIICJleIlHe 6paIHoro nepHOJla (lHCna npOlKHTblX neT) J1nJl xpOHOnOrlfeCKOrO nepHOJla
QI(10 iKe lllIllIH 1I lIen n n PO)lt)11LfHeno +C IIlL( HlI lJucno 011 11 11111TO c H t B 6PU 4 110 M BCTynHulIlI II li1l 1H
Aalllloro BlnpaCT(I Jl3 UH OI O UO IpH CTa B n~plloJll COllOSl HlIII 8 LaJt~ p CKpJ shytOCTOSlUIllH 8 C()CTCl 5I BllJItX 9BIIJ p nCT (IWi 1111 r ) T il BllHt X 110 B03P KTC
(ipnKc lin 11118110 liPKC K KOIII Iu n tJIIIIUU 6pnllt H ncpllo middot ne po)1 (1945 r ) lIe l a (K l middot i~ 1 ) (1~IS- 1 9fimiddot1 r r)BO p UCl C
-Ii I 51 2 middot1
_18 -38 - 3 19 12 ~tl 3 84
() 20 1)11 1J9 f)21 2 15425 6
22 18 3 156 160 23 6 17IS 16 161 2middot1 l 2012 10 139
U T jI
1-[
BbiGTeHbl HaXOlI1BWneCn B Toil Ie B03paCTIlOH rpynlle Ha KOHel( 11epHOJla (rpacenta 4)
TaK 449 = 495+ 150- 196 398 = 449 + 47- 98 11 T JI
llJU qaCTHOro nepJoIona 1946-1955 rr (rpacpa 7) BeJllollfHHbl QJTH B03pacToB 16 17 18 If T 11 1l0JT)IeHbl anaJlOrHlIHO naUHblM ilJH nepnola 194 L- [945 rr
TaK 916=751 + 196- 31 976 = 916+98- 38 R T 11 Cnoc06 nOJl)Ie lfH5I Ilall ll bl X )lJl51 Bcero nepHona B ueJlOM (lpashy
ltJa 8) IlOfICneH Bhlwe npHBeLleM erne OllHlI npllMcp fI pllMeHeHIIH MeTOl1a H30XpOll I1JHl
Bb[~IHCJleHHH no n epHOl1aM IIPOlHTbIX 6pa rlIfblx JTeT PaClteT nposhyH3BOLlHTCH no AallRblJI1 pacnpel1eJTeHH5 IeHlLUB no B03paCTY B MOshyMeHT o6CJTelOBaHHH (1956 r) H no B03pacTY scrynrleHHH B 6paK 1-1 ero npel(parneHHH (Ta61J 6)
T a 6 Jl II II a 6
PacnpeAeneHHe 06cneJ(onaHI1b1x no B03pacTY nCTynneHHII H OpeKpalleJlHSI 6paxa
B(J3pa CT B MOICIiT oc rynnclIHR A (ipallt MII npC Kp3utCIIIIR Opa lw
Bf) 3K3CT 91()1 CllT I ltI r~CA()fJIJIfIiSl II I I I I IIS 19 ~n n 22 21 2middot1 II T JI
18 1955 19 J I shy-ashy20 1 t
VI
21 J 2 I 2 22 6 -4 1 5 TIl I 23 5 5 4 3 -=-1
324 6 7 2 2 1 21 I---= 25 4 4 5 32 )
26 5 7 7 j 2 2 2 17 4 ti 7 G 2 32 28 1945 2 j 2 1 29 1 ) 5 1 2(2 30 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 12 31 21 --~ I I 1 2 1 2
- 1-132 2 3 2 1 12 33 2 -1 5 5 1 ---3-1_1 34 3 4 -tl I 2 11) 1_1_
It T 11
fj 194r)-I)) ( 11
tl CTYIIIIIO B 6paK 38 IS middot19 21 J8 Hi ll
flPCK P iITIf 1(l 6pt K 2 1 Ii
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15 17 20 16 29 21 I 15 1 1 11 8
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4 HccneAoBaHHe CBH3K AeMorpa$HQeCKHX npo~eccoB C APyrHMH SlBneHHSlMH
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JlerwrpaqI14eCKHX npoueccoB B CBgtl3H C HEKOTOPbIMH BagtKltblMrt
C06blTl51lH Il nepeMefa ~111 B )IH13HU lltonJleKTlIBa II OTJlCJlbHOrO J1 Hshy
Ila TaKoBo nanpurep H3YleHlle pO)KIlaeMOCTII JeTclltoii olepTshyHOCHI B CBH311 C pU3RIltIJl5IMlI B TpYlle MaTep (npoMblwfleHluuk
HRII HenpOMbIWleIIUblii) 1ltIrJ11 LLHeM Hml (fCYTCTBHeM 3amIT tiK KYshy
CTapllblM npO~lbICJlOr B KpeCTb5lHCKlIX CelMIX ncpeCeJlCHl-leM B HO
Bble )KIIJ1I1Ula H l iTO B CBoe BpeM5I 6b1rlO oco6emIO BaXltHO nCTynshyleHIleM B KO1JleKTIIBIOe X035l1IcTBO C aKKilHMaTII3aUlleii npB nepeshy
ceneHlIfI B ApKTHKY B BblCOlltoropHble paiiollbi II T bull t OGblllllO B
11 IIX c~yqaSIX InYlfellue BpoundleTCSI nYTeM conOCTaB1elllHI JtBYX KOJIshy
leKTrIBOB 06J1analOI1lIlX (( lie 061aaaIOlllIH laIlFlWM npR3H8KOM ()aHaKO npaKTlltIeCllI lIeB0310gtKHO nOlblCKaTb Ko1rJeKTIIBbl lOCT8shy
TOlIfO OJlIIOpOQHhle BO nce~1 OCTaJlbIlOM II 3TO eCTeCTBellllO 3aTshy
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oIoii Tallt HanplfMep npB conOCTaBJleHllH llByX KOJlJ1eKTIISOBshy
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pa60Tbl B neil
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113YQeHIIIO nOAneiKaJlH CllBHTll B pOgtKllaCMOCTli R JJeTcKoimiddoti
c1epT HOCTH B CBfT31l C nepecencHHeM B HOBble aOMa ECJlH Tpaqmshy11eCKrl H306pa311Tb B BHlIe pfTlla gtK113HeHllb1X Jl HHH H 06CJ1eaoBaHshy
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5 B bt C T P 0 B a B A LlocToeepHoCTb AamrblX nOJlylae~tblx alla~HleCTil-4(CKllM MeTonOM ABTopccjJepaT J1llccepTaUHH M 1954
6 Be H II 6 e p r B MeronIlKa H TeIIIlKa CT3TliCTHKU B nplIJlogtKellllH couliallbllOi 6lonortll1 nepeBoll nOll pCLl A B MOJIhKOB3 M 1928
7 My x 3 M C1 L Sl pO B ltIgt f K Bonpocy 06 113Y l lCIIlIIl BOCnpOl-l3BO1CtBa IIOKOMIlHJI K33alfcK~rit Mell iKypH3n 11 6 1931
8 My x a M e Jl blip 0 B (Igt r K Bonpocy 06 1I3YIJClIliH nepCgtF111J3eMOCTif B3poclloro TaTapCKoro 113CCJlelillfl Ka3 ~ICl livpH3n Ka3aH 1930
9 My x a 1 ell blip 0 B ltI) r OnblT 1l3Yle1l1lSl nJlOJlOllHTOlTIi gtKCtlWHIlbtshyTaTapKH 1I nepe)KUBaeMOCTll ee peOCHI3 K33 Men )KypHal Ka3a1lEo 1930
10 n a C B C K If ii B B II 51 x 0 H T O B A n a npliMelleHlfli aHaMlICCTlllemiddot CKoro MtTOla B 1eMOrp3cjJIlIl laquoT pYllLJ LleorpacjJllleCKOro l1UCflITYTa AKaae1I111 HayK CCCPraquo T I 1933
I I c 11 II K e B H LJ r n I fclICJleHlle cpeililcro B03paCT1J IIClcrynneHliH 1l[l1l3shyHllKa 110 Kllel11ltllllblM llerllOJl1M rnrn lna 11 3nl11C~1ItworH5Iraquo 1Ii III 1927
152
12 C II H Ii e B 11 q r n BOJloroncKaSl KpCcTb5lHKa u ee peIJelloK M 1929 13 Til MME C OmgtT 13YleIlHSI eCteCTBeliBOro llB10KeBIUI uacelleHIHI B
KI IUI 1 3Ka x T awKellT 1933 14 T If M I E C OnbtT c31l1ITapBo-cT3TlICTIIQCCKOrO UCClcuon3Hllll DnollO-
IITOCTIl TawlCclTT 1936 15 c 0 n T bI C C K I Ii E 11 K nonpocy 0 rtpl1Meliellll1t aHaMHeCTllltteCKoro
~I oaa [l c3I1HTapHo-cTaTlICTIlleCKHX HCCJlenOBalllHIX cr~lIueL1a II caHHTapHlI~ N 3 1949
16 C T P Y M H IT H II C r np06J1eMloi 3KOHOMIIKII TpyJJa [JI V n p06J1(Ma
pll K1l3eMOCTlI B pa60Qerf ceMbe M 1957 17 ill 0 pO ( 0 BaA A MCToLlHKa 1I3)1eHHSI nJlO)JOBlITOCTll qenOBeKa_
T alllKeHT 1935 18 A n s c I L An lhe rate of morlality of early period of life and t he other
~l~li s li cs of families L 1879 19 K nap p L D ie sterblichkeit in Sachsen leipzig 1869 20 K u C z i ns k y R The balance of barlhs an d deaths N J 1928 21 Wei 0 b erg W Die Kinder cler Tuberkulosen LeIpzig 1913
- -- ---
PaCnpelleJlelllle raquolteI-lllJHII no B03pacry B lOlgtleUT 06C~leLlOBai1l1H II B03paCTY BCT)nJ1eHH5I B 6paK I1Jlli npeKparneHHH 6paKa KdK yKashy3aHO Bhlwe LlaeT B03MOiKHOCTb pacnp el1e1HTb HX no xpOHOnOrHleshyClmM nepHonaM (LlHarOHaJ1blIbiM JTHHHflM I130Xp0l(nl) llJUr KaiK shy
loro B03paCTa nOrOlHO nOJlcqHThlBaeTen lHCJlO COCTOHBilHiX Ii 6pashyKe K KOIIUY nepHOLla (FlnlI ITO TO Me n epeWeJlWHX B COCTOHHHe 6paKa B cleJlYIOLUHii nepHOJl) TaK ~IHCJlO 23-JleTHHX COCTOHBillllX K 6paKe B 1945 r bull nOJTYllaeTC5J no ropH30HfaJlH B03paCTa 33 r Ol la ( Ha MOMeHT 06CJleIlOBaHHfI) rrYTeM CyMIgtIYI[l oaaHIUI BCryf1RBWRX B 6paK no 1945 r H BbllIITaHHH CJIYllaes np eIltpaLUCHH5I 6paKa
18 = 2+ 4 I 5 5 middotH~- 1
LfHCJ1a npoMHTblX leT B OpatJHOM COCTOHHIlI1 nJlSl OT)lenbHbI X
XpOH0J10rH4eCKHx nepHOJlOB (CM Ta6n 6a) orrpeJlenHIOTC5I cneJly shyIO[UHM 06pa30M rroroaI1O I1MI Karaquoltnoro B03pacTa nOCJlenOBaTeJ1bshy110 CYMMIlPYIOTC5I nepeweLltIllle B COCT05HlIe 6pallta T13 npeiJbICyweshyro nepHOla ( r pacpa 2) H BCTymwwHe B GpaK B llaHHOM B03pacTe If
B naHHOM nepnOl1e (rpacpa 3) Ii nOCJ1eJlOBaTeJlbIlO BblllHTalOTCH Dce npeKpanlBWlle 6paK (rpacpa 4) H nepeXOJl5IllJHe B COCTOfllHIC 6paKa B cJ1enYIOwuH n epHOlt (rpacpa 5) Tallt 4liCIJO np0gtKHTbIX OpalHblX JleT B B03pacre 19 J1eT I1J1H liIepHona 1945-1954 rr paBlfo
84= 38+2+ 48- 1- 3
JlSI 22 TIeT
160 = 154 + 6+18- 3-15 H T i
T a 6 Jl II [I a 6a
HCIIICJleIlHe 6paIHoro nepHOJla (lHCna npOlKHTblX neT) J1nJl xpOHOnOrlfeCKOrO nepHOJla
QI(10 iKe lllIllIH 1I lIen n n PO)lt)11LfHeno +C IIlL( HlI lJucno 011 11 11111TO c H t B 6PU 4 110 M BCTynHulIlI II li1l 1H
Aalllloro BlnpaCT(I Jl3 UH OI O UO IpH CTa B n~plloJll COllOSl HlIII 8 LaJt~ p CKpJ shytOCTOSlUIllH 8 C()CTCl 5I BllJItX 9BIIJ p nCT (IWi 1111 r ) T il BllHt X 110 B03P KTC
(ipnKc lin 11118110 liPKC K KOIII Iu n tJIIIIUU 6pnllt H ncpllo middot ne po)1 (1945 r ) lIe l a (K l middot i~ 1 ) (1~IS- 1 9fimiddot1 r r)BO p UCl C
-Ii I 51 2 middot1
_18 -38 - 3 19 12 ~tl 3 84
() 20 1)11 1J9 f)21 2 15425 6
22 18 3 156 160 23 6 17IS 16 161 2middot1 l 2012 10 139
U T jI
1-[
BbiGTeHbl HaXOlI1BWneCn B Toil Ie B03paCTIlOH rpynlle Ha KOHel( 11epHOJla (rpacenta 4)
TaK 449 = 495+ 150- 196 398 = 449 + 47- 98 11 T JI
llJU qaCTHOro nepJoIona 1946-1955 rr (rpacpa 7) BeJllollfHHbl QJTH B03pacToB 16 17 18 If T 11 1l0JT)IeHbl anaJlOrHlIHO naUHblM ilJH nepnola 194 L- [945 rr
TaK 916=751 + 196- 31 976 = 916+98- 38 R T 11 Cnoc06 nOJl)Ie lfH5I Ilall ll bl X )lJl51 Bcero nepHona B ueJlOM (lpashy
ltJa 8) IlOfICneH Bhlwe npHBeLleM erne OllHlI npllMcp fI pllMeHeHIIH MeTOl1a H30XpOll I1JHl
Bb[~IHCJleHHH no n epHOl1aM IIPOlHTbIX 6pa rlIfblx JTeT PaClteT nposhyH3BOLlHTCH no AallRblJI1 pacnpel1eJTeHH5 IeHlLUB no B03paCTY B MOshyMeHT o6CJTelOBaHHH (1956 r) H no B03pacTY scrynrleHHH B 6paK 1-1 ero npel(parneHHH (Ta61J 6)
T a 6 Jl II II a 6
PacnpeAeneHHe 06cneJ(onaHI1b1x no B03pacTY nCTynneHHII H OpeKpalleJlHSI 6paxa
B(J3pa CT B MOICIiT oc rynnclIHR A (ipallt MII npC Kp3utCIIIIR Opa lw
Bf) 3K3CT 91()1 CllT I ltI r~CA()fJIJIfIiSl II I I I I IIS 19 ~n n 22 21 2middot1 II T JI
18 1955 19 J I shy-ashy20 1 t
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26 5 7 7 j 2 2 2 17 4 ti 7 G 2 32 28 1945 2 j 2 1 29 1 ) 5 1 2(2 30 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 12 31 21 --~ I I 1 2 1 2
- 1-132 2 3 2 1 12 33 2 -1 5 5 1 ---3-1_1 34 3 4 -tl I 2 11) 1_1_
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CTapllblM npO~lbICJlOr B KpeCTb5lHCKlIX CelMIX ncpeCeJlCHl-leM B HO
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3 13 a T Ilt II C r A K MeTonOJlOnlH 1t3YIJC8Hff BJHHIIIHl lIpocjJCCCl1l 113 nposhyIf~ BonHTe1bHylO cjJYHKlJUlO )KemllIIHbl laquofmUeHa 6C3onaCHoCTb It naTOnOrHH rpyn3 N2 2 M 1930
4 13 0 1I p C K 11 if A 51 It ill Ywe p H B n n Lle~lOrpacjJlJIleCKall CT3T11shyCTHKa M 1955
5 B bt C T P 0 B a B A LlocToeepHoCTb AamrblX nOJlylae~tblx alla~HleCTil-4(CKllM MeTonOM ABTopccjJepaT J1llccepTaUHH M 1954
6 Be H II 6 e p r B MeronIlKa H TeIIIlKa CT3TliCTHKU B nplIJlogtKellllH couliallbllOi 6lonortll1 nepeBoll nOll pCLl A B MOJIhKOB3 M 1928
7 My x 3 M C1 L Sl pO B ltIgt f K Bonpocy 06 113Y l lCIIlIIl BOCnpOl-l3BO1CtBa IIOKOMIlHJI K33alfcK~rit Mell iKypH3n 11 6 1931
8 My x a M e Jl blip 0 B (Igt r K Bonpocy 06 1I3YIJClIliH nepCgtF111J3eMOCTif B3poclloro TaTapCKoro 113CCJlelillfl Ka3 ~ICl livpH3n Ka3aH 1930
9 My x a 1 ell blip 0 B ltI) r OnblT 1l3Yle1l1lSl nJlOJlOllHTOlTIi gtKCtlWHIlbtshyTaTapKH 1I nepe)KUBaeMOCTll ee peOCHI3 K33 Men )KypHal Ka3a1lEo 1930
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152
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6 Be H II 6 e p r B MeronIlKa H TeIIIlKa CT3TliCTHKU B nplIJlogtKellllH couliallbllOi 6lonortll1 nepeBoll nOll pCLl A B MOJIhKOB3 M 1928
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152
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152
12 C II H Ii e B 11 q r n BOJloroncKaSl KpCcTb5lHKa u ee peIJelloK M 1929 13 Til MME C OmgtT 13YleIlHSI eCteCTBeliBOro llB10KeBIUI uacelleHIHI B
KI IUI 1 3Ka x T awKellT 1933 14 T If M I E C OnbtT c31l1ITapBo-cT3TlICTIIQCCKOrO UCClcuon3Hllll DnollO-
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~I oaa [l c3I1HTapHo-cTaTlICTIlleCKHX HCCJlenOBalllHIX cr~lIueL1a II caHHTapHlI~ N 3 1949
16 C T P Y M H IT H II C r np06J1eMloi 3KOHOMIIKII TpyJJa [JI V n p06J1(Ma
pll K1l3eMOCTlI B pa60Qerf ceMbe M 1957 17 ill 0 pO ( 0 BaA A MCToLlHKa 1I3)1eHHSI nJlO)JOBlITOCTll qenOBeKa_
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~l~li s li cs of families L 1879 19 K nap p L D ie sterblichkeit in Sachsen leipzig 1869 20 K u C z i ns k y R The balance of barlhs an d deaths N J 1928 21 Wei 0 b erg W Die Kinder cler Tuberkulosen LeIpzig 1913
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llltl IWCeJleHllfiraquo laquoUeJiblii pnLl BonpOCOIl npll 113Y4CIIHH KOTOPblX CT3THCTflQecKlljl ~laTeplfa
GLiBaeT cpaBHHTeJlblD ne3l1alllfCJlbllblM no 1IICJlY ellliTlHU tra6mOACHIUI nOJY4aeT nrl11 nOMOLUI1 anaMHeCTII 4CCKOrf) MCTOAa B0310KnOcn paCWllpelllll II yrJJyGJl eH IHI
n pOrpa1MbI ~3ytjeIlHn ce CKa3aHlloc n OIBOJlRCT CI11Tan ITO aHalIeCT1I4eCKflil (lI1It MOiKCT UblTI
n p8BflJJIHee GllorpapIllccRlfil ) MCTOll MOlKeT n airTl lOBOJlbHO WltpOKoe npIPd ( IlCHlle npn CT3THCTHJeCKO1 lI1151101enUU n 04ellh WOfHX OTpaCJIlX 3HaHlia OcnoBlloc 311alellHl MeTOlla 3aK11OlafTCll B CIIOCOGIIOCTIf 1l3Tb 3n3RlIC npowJloro II nOll 3TOM B ltPOp Me Tpe6yeMo H COBpeMClr11b1M lICCJlCnOBaIlUCM ho l1l31ennE MCTOD He TepSleT lJeCMOrpll Ha B03MOKIltIC TeOpeTII4eCKIle norpCWHOCTII 1I B03
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tiellHocTblO MeTOJl3 OT13C-rrl ll9J1S110TCl 06LUHM H lVlll BCllKoro CTanlCTlI4eClwrl na(iJlIOllellllll 130 BCllKOM cny l ae HeilOCT3TKH ~eTnaa tie TaK cyweCTICllllbl ITOliLl
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mlH 81l3MIICCTII4eCKorn ~leTOD3 CneUHaJlbllO IICCJle)lOBan Ta KiKe B A DblCTpnshynorf B ec Jll1CCepT8l1)10fJ lIOif pa60TC llOCTOBepllOCTb DaHllblX nOJly[aeMbiX allaM-
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151
PHJl HCCJle)JOBaHHH Jle~IOrpacentIileCKIlX npOueCCOB 6blJl npOBCJleU B CS5I31I C COUlIaJlIlCTITLIeCKOH peKOUCTPYKlJlieii rOpOJla Ii JlepCBfIlI IlHJlYCTpHaJHf3aUHeH Ii KOJlJlelTlfBH3auueJl CTpaHbr B tJacnrocnr
H3YQeHHe JlHHalHKH leTCKOll CMepTIlOCTH B nOCeJ1KaX MOCKBbI H B KOJlX03aX pHJla o6fJaCTei-i
Oco6oro BHILMaillI5I 3 a CJlY)KHBaIQT 06WnpHhle 06CJJeJlOBaH~IH ceshyl eft pa60LIHX ClIY)KallJl1X H IlHIl(CHep llO-TeXH1QeCKHx pa60THliKOB (JlO 10 000 onpoweHliblx MaTepeii) npOBeleHHbl e lJCY CCCP n pll 6Io)J)KeTHbI X o6CJlellOBaHJIHX B 1934 r Pe3YJlbT aTbi 3THX HCCJleDOshyBaHliH orry6JlliKOBaHbi B J957 r a KaJle1HKOM C r CTPYMHJlHlIbIM
AHalH1eCTHIeCKUH MeTO] C ycrrexoM npH~leHHJlC5I TaK1Ke np H 113Yl leIlTlII CltlHllTa p HblX 110CJlenCI BH~i BOllHbI (KpbIM) npH H3ytlemm nereCeJleHIHI B YCJlOBIHIX KpaHHero Cesepa (HHCTlHYT rI1rI1eHbI AMI-l CCCP) nJl5I nonY4eHHH oQIlJei-i xapaKTep HCTHKH JlellOrpashycPlIlfeCIUlX npoueccoB a TalOKe C ueJlblO KOImiddottTPOJlH nOJlIIOTbI H DOshycToBepHocTII nallllblX 0CPUUl-IaJlbHOH CTaTnCTHKH 3aKaBKa3b5I (3KCshynCDHUlIOIJllOe 06CJlellOnallfie M HcTIlTYTa opramnauHH 311paBooxpa shyHe~Jli51 H HCnOpmr vlelHUHHbI HM H A CeMail1Ko)
B pa3pa6oTKe allaMHECTH-leCKOrO MeTO[la H B npOBeJleH1l 1I 3KCshynellHUHOHHbtX 11 HllblX oGcneJ]oBaHHii npHHlIMano yqacTHe 3HatJHshyreJlbHOe tfHCJlO n a Yllnbl X pa6oTHHKOB CCCP
YKA3ATEJlb JIMTEPATYPbl
OIHOBHble HCTOlIHlKH no MeTonOJlOrltleCKIlM BonpocaM)
I n e K C U c CT3Tbn lTo TeopHH CT3TIICTltKIt lIaCeJIellllSl l TeopnIl npaBCTshyBCllltOI CT3THCHIKII 1 fp3qJlIlecKII~1 MeTOA HCCJleAOB3UHSl CMepT1l0Cni II noshyIHlllOK BblmlpaHIISl B nepeaOAeuro nOA peA Ll y rrpOBa Cn6 1906
2 13 a T K II C r A Ol[epKII 110 CTaTHCTIIIeCKOIi MeToaOJtOrllll I K Bonpocy MeTOLlOJlOrtlll IICH1c~eRIHI Cpe)lHerO B03pac-ra 11 MeTOLl H30Xpml Ill H3YleHue 11 10110[lIlTOCTII IV y13Y l lelHle CMCPTHOCTII V feOMeTplll[eCl(He r pacjJuKIl naceshyJI(IIUS VI AnaMHCCTIIIeC)HH leTO B AeMorpaClIlH laquoCOUB3J1bH3n rHrllella~ N 19 1928 ~2 2-3 12-13 N94 (14) 1928
3 13 a T Ilt II C r A K MeTonOJlOnlH 1t3YIJC8Hff BJHHIIIHl lIpocjJCCCl1l 113 nposhyIf~ BonHTe1bHylO cjJYHKlJUlO )KemllIIHbl laquofmUeHa 6C3onaCHoCTb It naTOnOrHH rpyn3 N2 2 M 1930
4 13 0 1I p C K 11 if A 51 It ill Ywe p H B n n Lle~lOrpacjJlJIleCKall CT3T11shyCTHKa M 1955
5 B bt C T P 0 B a B A LlocToeepHoCTb AamrblX nOJlylae~tblx alla~HleCTil-4(CKllM MeTonOM ABTopccjJepaT J1llccepTaUHH M 1954
6 Be H II 6 e p r B MeronIlKa H TeIIIlKa CT3TliCTHKU B nplIJlogtKellllH couliallbllOi 6lonortll1 nepeBoll nOll pCLl A B MOJIhKOB3 M 1928
7 My x 3 M C1 L Sl pO B ltIgt f K Bonpocy 06 113Y l lCIIlIIl BOCnpOl-l3BO1CtBa IIOKOMIlHJI K33alfcK~rit Mell iKypH3n 11 6 1931
8 My x a M e Jl blip 0 B (Igt r K Bonpocy 06 1I3YIJClIliH nepCgtF111J3eMOCTif B3poclloro TaTapCKoro 113CCJlelillfl Ka3 ~ICl livpH3n Ka3aH 1930
9 My x a 1 ell blip 0 B ltI) r OnblT 1l3Yle1l1lSl nJlOJlOllHTOlTIi gtKCtlWHIlbtshyTaTapKH 1I nepe)KUBaeMOCTll ee peOCHI3 K33 Men )KypHal Ka3a1lEo 1930
10 n a C B C K If ii B B II 51 x 0 H T O B A n a npliMelleHlfli aHaMlICCTlllemiddot CKoro MtTOla B 1eMOrp3cjJIlIl laquoT pYllLJ LleorpacjJllleCKOro l1UCflITYTa AKaae1I111 HayK CCCPraquo T I 1933
I I c 11 II K e B H LJ r n I fclICJleHlle cpeililcro B03paCT1J IIClcrynneHliH 1l[l1l3shyHllKa 110 Kllel11ltllllblM llerllOJl1M rnrn lna 11 3nl11C~1ItworH5Iraquo 1Ii III 1927
152
12 C II H Ii e B 11 q r n BOJloroncKaSl KpCcTb5lHKa u ee peIJelloK M 1929 13 Til MME C OmgtT 13YleIlHSI eCteCTBeliBOro llB10KeBIUI uacelleHIHI B
KI IUI 1 3Ka x T awKellT 1933 14 T If M I E C OnbtT c31l1ITapBo-cT3TlICTIIQCCKOrO UCClcuon3Hllll DnollO-
IITOCTIl TawlCclTT 1936 15 c 0 n T bI C C K I Ii E 11 K nonpocy 0 rtpl1Meliellll1t aHaMHeCTllltteCKoro
~I oaa [l c3I1HTapHo-cTaTlICTIlleCKHX HCCJlenOBalllHIX cr~lIueL1a II caHHTapHlI~ N 3 1949
16 C T P Y M H IT H II C r np06J1eMloi 3KOHOMIIKII TpyJJa [JI V n p06J1(Ma
pll K1l3eMOCTlI B pa60Qerf ceMbe M 1957 17 ill 0 pO ( 0 BaA A MCToLlHKa 1I3)1eHHSI nJlO)JOBlITOCTll qenOBeKa_
T alllKeHT 1935 18 A n s c I L An lhe rate of morlality of early period of life and t he other
~l~li s li cs of families L 1879 19 K nap p L D ie sterblichkeit in Sachsen leipzig 1869 20 K u C z i ns k y R The balance of barlhs an d deaths N J 1928 21 Wei 0 b erg W Die Kinder cler Tuberkulosen LeIpzig 1913
PHJl HCCJle)JOBaHHH Jle~IOrpacentIileCKIlX npOueCCOB 6blJl npOBCJleU B CS5I31I C COUlIaJlIlCTITLIeCKOH peKOUCTPYKlJlieii rOpOJla Ii JlepCBfIlI IlHJlYCTpHaJHf3aUHeH Ii KOJlJlelTlfBH3auueJl CTpaHbr B tJacnrocnr
H3YQeHHe JlHHalHKH leTCKOll CMepTIlOCTH B nOCeJ1KaX MOCKBbI H B KOJlX03aX pHJla o6fJaCTei-i
Oco6oro BHILMaillI5I 3 a CJlY)KHBaIQT 06WnpHhle 06CJJeJlOBaH~IH ceshyl eft pa60LIHX ClIY)KallJl1X H IlHIl(CHep llO-TeXH1QeCKHx pa60THliKOB (JlO 10 000 onpoweHliblx MaTepeii) npOBeleHHbl e lJCY CCCP n pll 6Io)J)KeTHbI X o6CJlellOBaHJIHX B 1934 r Pe3YJlbT aTbi 3THX HCCJleDOshyBaHliH orry6JlliKOBaHbi B J957 r a KaJle1HKOM C r CTPYMHJlHlIbIM
AHalH1eCTHIeCKUH MeTO] C ycrrexoM npH~leHHJlC5I TaK1Ke np H 113Yl leIlTlII CltlHllTa p HblX 110CJlenCI BH~i BOllHbI (KpbIM) npH H3ytlemm nereCeJleHIHI B YCJlOBIHIX KpaHHero Cesepa (HHCTlHYT rI1rI1eHbI AMI-l CCCP) nJl5I nonY4eHHH oQIlJei-i xapaKTep HCTHKH JlellOrpashycPlIlfeCIUlX npoueccoB a TalOKe C ueJlblO KOImiddottTPOJlH nOJlIIOTbI H DOshycToBepHocTII nallllblX 0CPUUl-IaJlbHOH CTaTnCTHKH 3aKaBKa3b5I (3KCshynCDHUlIOIJllOe 06CJlellOnallfie M HcTIlTYTa opramnauHH 311paBooxpa shyHe~Jli51 H HCnOpmr vlelHUHHbI HM H A CeMail1Ko)
B pa3pa6oTKe allaMHECTH-leCKOrO MeTO[la H B npOBeJleH1l 1I 3KCshynellHUHOHHbtX 11 HllblX oGcneJ]oBaHHii npHHlIMano yqacTHe 3HatJHshyreJlbHOe tfHCJlO n a Yllnbl X pa6oTHHKOB CCCP
YKA3ATEJlb JIMTEPATYPbl
OIHOBHble HCTOlIHlKH no MeTonOJlOrltleCKIlM BonpocaM)
I n e K C U c CT3Tbn lTo TeopHH CT3TIICTltKIt lIaCeJIellllSl l TeopnIl npaBCTshyBCllltOI CT3THCHIKII 1 fp3qJlIlecKII~1 MeTOA HCCJleAOB3UHSl CMepT1l0Cni II noshyIHlllOK BblmlpaHIISl B nepeaOAeuro nOA peA Ll y rrpOBa Cn6 1906
2 13 a T K II C r A Ol[epKII 110 CTaTHCTIIIeCKOIi MeToaOJtOrllll I K Bonpocy MeTOLlOJlOrtlll IICH1c~eRIHI Cpe)lHerO B03pac-ra 11 MeTOLl H30Xpml Ill H3YleHue 11 10110[lIlTOCTII IV y13Y l lelHle CMCPTHOCTII V feOMeTplll[eCl(He r pacjJuKIl naceshyJI(IIUS VI AnaMHCCTIIIeC)HH leTO B AeMorpaClIlH laquoCOUB3J1bH3n rHrllella~ N 19 1928 ~2 2-3 12-13 N94 (14) 1928
3 13 a T Ilt II C r A K MeTonOJlOnlH 1t3YIJC8Hff BJHHIIIHl lIpocjJCCCl1l 113 nposhyIf~ BonHTe1bHylO cjJYHKlJUlO )KemllIIHbl laquofmUeHa 6C3onaCHoCTb It naTOnOrHH rpyn3 N2 2 M 1930
4 13 0 1I p C K 11 if A 51 It ill Ywe p H B n n Lle~lOrpacjJlJIleCKall CT3T11shyCTHKa M 1955
5 B bt C T P 0 B a B A LlocToeepHoCTb AamrblX nOJlylae~tblx alla~HleCTil-4(CKllM MeTonOM ABTopccjJepaT J1llccepTaUHH M 1954
6 Be H II 6 e p r B MeronIlKa H TeIIIlKa CT3TliCTHKU B nplIJlogtKellllH couliallbllOi 6lonortll1 nepeBoll nOll pCLl A B MOJIhKOB3 M 1928
7 My x 3 M C1 L Sl pO B ltIgt f K Bonpocy 06 113Y l lCIIlIIl BOCnpOl-l3BO1CtBa IIOKOMIlHJI K33alfcK~rit Mell iKypH3n 11 6 1931
8 My x a M e Jl blip 0 B (Igt r K Bonpocy 06 1I3YIJClIliH nepCgtF111J3eMOCTif B3poclloro TaTapCKoro 113CCJlelillfl Ka3 ~ICl livpH3n Ka3aH 1930
9 My x a 1 ell blip 0 B ltI) r OnblT 1l3Yle1l1lSl nJlOJlOllHTOlTIi gtKCtlWHIlbtshyTaTapKH 1I nepe)KUBaeMOCTll ee peOCHI3 K33 Men )KypHal Ka3a1lEo 1930
10 n a C B C K If ii B B II 51 x 0 H T O B A n a npliMelleHlfli aHaMlICCTlllemiddot CKoro MtTOla B 1eMOrp3cjJIlIl laquoT pYllLJ LleorpacjJllleCKOro l1UCflITYTa AKaae1I111 HayK CCCPraquo T I 1933
I I c 11 II K e B H LJ r n I fclICJleHlle cpeililcro B03paCT1J IIClcrynneHliH 1l[l1l3shyHllKa 110 Kllel11ltllllblM llerllOJl1M rnrn lna 11 3nl11C~1ItworH5Iraquo 1Ii III 1927
152
12 C II H Ii e B 11 q r n BOJloroncKaSl KpCcTb5lHKa u ee peIJelloK M 1929 13 Til MME C OmgtT 13YleIlHSI eCteCTBeliBOro llB10KeBIUI uacelleHIHI B
KI IUI 1 3Ka x T awKellT 1933 14 T If M I E C OnbtT c31l1ITapBo-cT3TlICTIIQCCKOrO UCClcuon3Hllll DnollO-
IITOCTIl TawlCclTT 1936 15 c 0 n T bI C C K I Ii E 11 K nonpocy 0 rtpl1Meliellll1t aHaMHeCTllltteCKoro
~I oaa [l c3I1HTapHo-cTaTlICTIlleCKHX HCCJlenOBalllHIX cr~lIueL1a II caHHTapHlI~ N 3 1949
16 C T P Y M H IT H II C r np06J1eMloi 3KOHOMIIKII TpyJJa [JI V n p06J1(Ma
pll K1l3eMOCTlI B pa60Qerf ceMbe M 1957 17 ill 0 pO ( 0 BaA A MCToLlHKa 1I3)1eHHSI nJlO)JOBlITOCTll qenOBeKa_
T alllKeHT 1935 18 A n s c I L An lhe rate of morlality of early period of life and t he other
~l~li s li cs of families L 1879 19 K nap p L D ie sterblichkeit in Sachsen leipzig 1869 20 K u C z i ns k y R The balance of barlhs an d deaths N J 1928 21 Wei 0 b erg W Die Kinder cler Tuberkulosen LeIpzig 1913