Economía y Finanzas del Agua
Mercados de Agua en la Gestión Integrada del Agua
Escasez y Sequía en España y los Nuevos Retos de la Directiva
Marco del Agua
Water scarcity, droughts and climate change in Spain
Teodoro Estrela
Zaragoza, 31 julio 2008
Water scarcity
Water scarcity in European Union
Current water availability
Source: European Environment Agency, 2005 Water exploitation index (expected for 2030)
Water scarcity in Spain
• Water scarcity means that water demands exceeds the available water resources under sustainable conditions
• Water is a scarce resource in some areas of Spain
– High irregularity in time and space
– Limited water resource: conflicting
water demands
Precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and runoff in
Spain in mm (period 1940-2005)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
mm
/añ
o
Precipitación (mm)
Evapotranspiración real (mm)
Escorrentía (mm)
Irregular hydrological regimes in Spain
Mean annual precipitation (mm)
Mean annual runoff (mm)
Water consumption index: water consumption / potential water resource
<0,5 Low use
0,5-1 Circumstantial water stress
>1 Structural water stress
Water stress
Measures to fight water scarcity
Main measures to fight water scarcity in Spain:
• Development of water supply infrastructures • Metering programmes of water abstractions
• Water savings and water-efficient technologies
• Joint management of surface water and groundwater
• Use of non-conventional water resources: waste water reuse and desalination
Public water supplyWater
Country City consu mption
Bélgica Bruselas 112l/pers/d
España Barcelona 119ay
España Cop h gValeennciaa 121 Dinamarca ue 123
España Madrid 124 España Sevilla 137
Grecia Heraclión 139 Portugal Lisboa 144 Hungría Budapest 146 Austria AmsterdaViena 147
Holanda m 149 Italia Roma 150
Chipre Nicosia 166 Finlandia Helsinki 170
Suecia Estocolmo 190 Noruega Oslo 200
Suiza Berna 250
l/p
ers
on
.da
y
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
160 6,0
Population
Household consumption 5,5
5,0
4,5
4,0
Mill
ion
s in
ha
b.
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
Water consumption in Barcelona (l /person . day)
Domestic water consumption in different European cities (l /person . day)
Droughts
Droughts
Drought management in Spain: traditionally as an emergency situation
Spanish Water Law (TRLA), in article 58, foresees in extraordinary drought situation the adoption, by the Government, of necessary measures to overcome these situations, related to the use of the public water domain.
Policy bases for Drought Management Plans
Law 10/2001, July 5, of the Hydrological Water Plan, bases for the drought planned management.
establishes the
Article 27. Drought management
Section 1. The Ministry of Environment, for dependent river basins, in order to minimize environmental, economic and social impacts of eventual drought situations, will establish a global hydrologic indicator system that will allow foreseeing these situations, and will serve as general reference for river basin authorities for the formal declaration of emergency situations and eventual drought. This declaration will imply the entry into force of Drought Management Plans (DMP).
Section 2. Basin Organizations will develop Drought Management Plans (DMP) for alert situations and eventual drought (exploitation rules and measures)
Global hydrological indicator system
• Global hydrological indicator system has been developed
• Drought maps being developed since December 2005 and published in the web page of Spanish Ministry of Environment, Rural and Marine Affairs.
march 2008 june 2008
Example of measure included in DMPs: Drought wells and environmental control (specific groundwater level network)
Droughts: “Albufera Lake” Ramsar wetland
Albufera Lake
Júcar river
Climate change
reseen for 2071-21
EC Green Paper. A2 scenarios. Climatic changes fo 00
Impact of Climate Change
Change in mean annual temperature and precipitation
Climate Change
• Preliminary assessment reports on climate change impacts in Spain:
– Decrease in water resources mean values are expected.
» For a decrease of 5% in mean annual precipitation and an increase of 1ºC in mean annual temperature, a decrease between 9 and 25% in runoff is expected depending on the river basin districts.
– Increase in water resource variability is expected.
– The most critical Spanish areas are arid and semiarid ones where water scarcity and drought problems are greater.
Impact on water resources and vulnerability in Spain
Impact on runoff reduction for a decrease Vulnerability: water scarcity risk in water of 5% in mean annual precipitation and an resource systems increase of 1ºC in mean annual
temperature (year 2030)
Source: White Paper on Water in Spain, MMA (2000)
Climate Change and Water resources in Spain
• National Adaptation Plan on Climate Change. Aim: Integration of adaptation to climate change into the planning strategy of the different socio-economic sectors in Spain
• Water resources sector: assessment of impacts on natural resources, water demands, available resources and ecological status
)
Prec ipitaciones
0
50
1 00
1 50
2 00
2 50
3 00
3 50
4 00
4 50
5 00
5 50
6 00
6 50
7 00
7 50
8 00
19
61
19
66
19
71
19
76
19
81
19
86
19
91
19
96
20
01
20
06
20
11
20
16
20
21
20
26
20
31
20
36
20
41
20
46
20
51
20
56
20
61
20
66
20
71
20
76
20
81
20
86
20
91
20
96
Pr
ec
ip it
a c
ió n
to
ta l
a n
ua
l (
mm
ECHAM4 Model. Escenario A2
Precipitations
1961-1990
2011-2040
2041-2070
2071-2100
m)
ETP. ECHAM4. A2
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
19
61
19
66
19
71
19
76
19
81
19
86
19
91
19
96
20
01
20
06
20
11
20
16
20
21
20
26
20
31
20
36
20
41
20
46
20
51
20
56
20
61
20
66
20
71
20
76
20
81
20
86
20
91
20
96
Ev
apo
transp
ira
ció
n p
ote
ncia
l to
tal
an
ua
l (m
ECHAM4 Model. Escenario A2
Potential evapotranspiration
1961-1990
2011-2040
2041-2070
2071-2100
)
Escorrentía Budyko. EC HAM4. A2
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
1 9
61
1 9
66
1 9
71
1 9
76
1 9
81
1 9
86
1 9
91
1 9
96
2 0
01
2 0
06
2 0
11
2 0
16
2 0
21
2 0
26
2 0
31
2 0
36
2 0
41
2 0
46
2 0
51
2 0
56
2 0
61
2 0
66
2 0
71
2 0
76
2 0
81
2 0
86
2 0
91
2 0
96
Escorren
tía
t o
tal
an
ua
l (m
m
Runoff
ECHAM4 Model. Escenario A2
1961-1990
2011-2040
2041-2070
2071-2100
ECHAM4 model results
PRE ETP AES PRE ETP AES 1961-1990 563 1118 80 563 1118 80 2011-2040 500 1189 50 505 1191 52 2041-2070 471 1263 34 497 1246 44 2071-2100 463 1364 27 492 1291 39
1961-1990 - - - - - -
2011-2040 -11% 6% -38% -10% 7% -36% 2041-2070 -16% 13% -57% -12% 12% -46% 2071-2100 -18% 22% -66% -13% 16% -52%
Escenarios A2 y B2
)
m)
) )
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
96
Pre cipitació n
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850 6
1
66
71
76
81
86
91
96
01
06
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
91
96
Pre
cip
itac
ión
to
tal
an
ua
l (m
m
ECHAM4A2
CGCM2A 2
HadleyA 2
ETP
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
1550
1600
61
66
71
76
81
86
91
96
01
06
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
91
Ev
ap
otr
an
spir
aci
ón
po
ten
cia
l to
tal
an
ual
(m
ECHAM4A2
CGCM2A2
HadleyA2
Escorrentía Budyko. Ava nce trabajos
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
1 9
6 1
1 9
6 6
1 9
7 1
1 9
7 6
1 9
8 1
1 9
8 6
1 9
9 1
1 9
9 6
2 0
0 1
2 0
0 6
2 0
1 1
2 0
1 6
2 0
2 1
2 0
2 6
2 0
3 1
2 0
3 6
2 0
4 1
2 0
4 6
2 0
5 1
2 0
5 6
2 0
6 1
2 0
6 6
2 0
7 1
2 0
7 6
2 0
8 1
2 0
8 6
2 0
9 1
2 0
9 6
Es
corr
en
tía
to
tal
an
ua
l (m
m
ECHAM4A 2
CGCM 2A 2
HadleyA2
E scorrentía Budyko. Av ance trabajos
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
196
1 1
966
197
1 1
976
198
1 1
986
199
1 1
996
200
1 2
006
201
1 2
016
202
1 2
026
203
1 2
036
204
1 2
046
205
1 2
056
206
1 2
066
207
1 2
076
208
1 2
086
209
1 2
096
Esco
rre
ntí
a t
ota
l an
ua
l (m
m
ECHAM4B2
CGCM 2B2
HadleyB2
ECHAM4, CGCM2 and Hadley model results
Regulation in Spain
– First River Basin Planning cycle (year 2009): a Climate-Check of Programme of Measures will be carried out in EU Member States.
– Royal Decree, RD 907/2007 regarding River Basin Management Plan Regulations was approved in July 2007
– Mandatory to consider the effects of climate change on water resources in the development of plans